🇮🇳 India Sector Rotation Intelligence Engine

An end-to-end ML-powered system that reads Indian macroeconomic regimes and predicts optimal Nifty sector allocation — with backtested outperformance vs NIFTY 50.

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📊 Backtest Results

Metric	Strategy	NIFTY 50
CAGR	71.98%	9.48%
Sharpe Ratio	2.72	0.64
Max Drawdown	-16.23%	-29.62%
Hit Rate	70.9%	—

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🧠 What It Does

1. Pulls live Indian market data — 8 Nifty sector indices, NIFTY 50, USD/INR, India VIX via yfinance
2. Engineers macro features — VIX regime, NIFTY momentum, USD/INR trend
3. Classifies macro regime — Expansion, Slowdown, Contraction, Stagflation using Random Forest (98.3% accuracy)
4. Ranks sectors per regime — Random Forest regressors predict forward 1-month sector returns
5. Constructs model portfolio — Equal weight across top 3 ranked sectors, monthly rebalancing
6. Backtests vs NIFTY 50 — CAGR, Sharpe Ratio, Max Drawdown, Hit Rate
7. Visualizes everything — Excel dashboard, 6 PNG charts

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🗂️ Project Structure

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⚙️ How To Run

Step 1 — Install dependencies

pip install pandas numpy matplotlib seaborn scikit-learn yfinance shap openpyxl jupyter

Step 2 — Run the full pipeline

python src/pipeline.py
python src/feature_engineering.py
python src/train_model.py
python src/backtest.py
python src/visualize.py
python src/excel_dashboard.py

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📦 Data Sources

Source	Data
yfinance	8 Nifty sector indices, NIFTY 50 benchmark
yfinance	USD/INR exchange rate, India VIX

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🤖 ML Architecture

Model 1 — Regime Classifier

• Algorithm: Random Forest (multiclass)
• Features: VIX regime, NIFTY momentum (3M/6M/12M), USD/INR trend
• Output: Expansion / Slowdown / Contraction / Stagflation
• Accuracy: 98.3% (cross-validated)

Model 2 — Sector Ranker

• Algorithm: Random Forest Regressor (per regime)
• Target: Forward 1-month sector return
• Output: Ranked list of 8 sectors
• Portfolio: Equal weight in top 3 sectors, monthly rebalanced

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📈 Macro Regime Logic

Regime	Conditions	Top Sectors
Expansion	NIFTY above MA, low VIX, positive momentum	Auto, Realty, Metal
Slowdown	NIFTY slowing, elevated VIX	Pharma, FMCG
Contraction	NIFTY below MA, high VIX	Pharma, FMCG, Infra
Stagflation	NIFTY down, INR weakening	Energy, Metal

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🛠️ Tech Stack

• Python — pandas, numpy, scikit-learn, yfinance, shap, matplotlib, openpyxl
• ML — Random Forest classifier + regressors, SHAP explainability
• Visualization — matplotlib (dark theme charts), openpyxl (Excel dashboard)
• Data — yfinance API (NSE indices)

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👤 Author

Manav BTech CSE + MBA — Nirma University, Ahmedabad (2029) Targeting Investment Banking & Strategy Consulting

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💬 One-Line Pitch

"I built a system that reads Indian macroeconomic regimes using live market data and predicts optimal Nifty sector allocation using machine learning — with a backtested portfolio delivering 71.98% CAGR vs 9.48% for NIFTY 50."