work in progress simulation of COVID-19 spread of Troy High School's in-person education model. Not entirely statistically sound or scientifically based, just an exercise in simulation and data collection.
CONTROLLABLE VARIABLES N: population size (total number of students at school) C: classes attended each day Cl: number of classrooms T: total days attended (simulation length) "Hybrid teaching" options: Nk: student body physically present on any given day OR Ck: classes physically attended per student per day STATISTIC VARIABLES I: projected number of students infected over timespan R0: Basic Reproduction Number (new infections per infected student) @ end of simulation
dots will attend c classes each day between classes, dots will walk through one of three passageways (CRUDE, i know) to get to their next class 3% infection rate when in close contact (conservative, assumes caution and recognition -> isolation) every dot in the same class as an infected will have a 3% chance of being infected themselves every class infected dot has 2n16 chance to self-quarantine (stop attending classes) after nth day 3% infection rate when using same passageway as infected dot between classes simulations will start with max(N/300, 2) infected dots attending classes. after each day, students have a 0.5% chance of getting infected themselves (from outside)
works cited??: https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/218769/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-update-transmission-5-or-less-among-close