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* Update * Update * Update * Update * Update * Update linter.yml * Update * fix HTML Error * Update * Update * 取消line_length限制 * Update * Update * Update * Update links.yml * Update * Delete links.yml * Update * Latex * yml名称修正 * Remove Latex * Fix README.md * Update * Fix MarkDown Error * Update * Update * Fix MarkDown Error * Update 如果疫情一直不会结束最终世界会是什么样子的.md Co-authored-by: jiayouba233 <abroad-jiayouba233@outlook.com>
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# 我们是最后一代 | ||
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事情经过:5月11日,一段防疫人员试图强行拉“密接”市民去隔离的视频及其对话在中文互联网上热传。视频中的男性市民援引法律称防疫人员无权强行拉“密接”人员去隔离,并拒绝被转运。一名身穿印有“警察”字样白色防护服的人员威胁称:“如果你拒绝被转运,将会受到治安处罚。处罚以后,要影响你的三代!”这位市民回说:“这是我们最后一代,谢谢!” | ||
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 | ||
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## 网民评论截图 | ||
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 | ||
 | ||
 | ||
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## 相关创作 | ||
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 | ||
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## 参考 | ||
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- [中国数字时代 【CDTV】防疫人员:“处罚了以后,要影响你的三代!” 市民:“这是我们最后一代,谢谢!”](https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/681166.html) | ||
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- [中国数字时代 【网络民议】你的统治到我结束,你给的苦难到我为止](https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/681204.html) |
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# 外交部相关合订本 | ||
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## 世界卫生组织 | ||
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[王毅:给世卫组织泼脏水的人只会弄脏他们自己](http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020lh/2020-05/24/c_1126026347.htm) | ||
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[外交部回应世卫总干事谈中国防疫政策:不要发表不负责任言论](https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_18033807) |
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# 国际组织相关 | ||
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## 国际组织对清零防疫政策的批判 | ||
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 | ||
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[世卫组织:清零防疫政策不可持续](https://news.un.org/zh/story/2022/05/1102932) | ||
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## 国内平台对相关内容的审查 | ||
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[联合国网站存在违法信息](联合国网站存在违法信息.mp4) | ||
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 | ||
 | ||
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## 参考 | ||
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[中国数字时代 【网络民议】谁说中国到了该改变动态清零政策的时候?!](https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/681131.html) |
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# 如果疫情一直不会结束最终世界会是什么样子的 | ||
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 | ||
 | ||
 | ||
 | ||
 |
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# 金融数据全面坍塌 | ||
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金融数据全面坍塌!根本没有需求 企业想裁员 居民也不买房! | ||
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[原文链接](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1BtaWmYtl6usa_jkkbYloA) [Archive备份](https://archive.ph/iqy9p) | ||
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疫情影响太严重了,4月份我国金融数据打回原形,全面坍塌! | ||
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1、社融增量较去年同期下降51%。 | ||
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核心问题是,无论政策怎么刺激,就是没有需求! | ||
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2、新增人民币贷款比3月份减少2.48万亿,降幅79%;比去年同期减少0.83万亿,降幅56%! | ||
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企业已经躺平了,给他们贷款都不要,他们都没想着扩张规模,只想着裁员度过寒冬。 | ||
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3、份居民贷款新增-2170亿元,同比多减7453亿元。 | ||
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其中居民住房贷款有史以来第二次减少,且减少幅度扩大,为605亿元,同比少增规模高达4022亿元。 | ||
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居民也躺平了,既不买车,也不买房。 | ||
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01 | ||
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社融腰斩 核心是:没有需求! | ||
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4月份,社会融资规模增量为9102亿元,比上年同期少9468亿元,较去年同期腰斩。 | ||
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其中,对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加3616亿元,同比少增9224亿元。 | ||
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 | ||
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我看到一个银行的人说,自己做贷款业务,最近一直给企业打电话,贷点款吧,利率优惠,而企业那边反馈,根本不需要,现在的存货还没卖出去呢,没打算扩大生产。 | ||
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遥想当年,多少人排着队找他贷款啊,再对比一下现在就感叹,自己从业十几年,从来没有像今天这么卑微过。 | ||
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我们之前文章[《残酷的悖论:只有炒房才能拯救楼市 才能拯救中国经济!》](https://www.163.com/dy/article/H4U1LAOR0539HG14.html)中解释过,一季度经济增长全靠政府拉动,社融里面政府债券占比超过50%。 | ||
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而地方政府专项债发行大都集中在一季度,这个高峰期过后,后面的政府融资需求也下来了。 | ||
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做个对比,3月份政府债券净融资规模7052亿元,4月份净融资3912亿元,降幅44.5%,接近腰斩。 | ||
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因此,从硬核数据看,金融数据3月份就全面坍塌了,但是就靠政府债券、短期融资,以及票据融资支撑。 | ||
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现在,撑不住了,4月份的金融数据就坍塌了。 | ||
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金融数据坍塌说明什么? | ||
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尽管我们出台了很多刺激经济的政策,但是实体经济仍然没有需求,死气沉沉。 | ||
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这个是预期之中的事情。 | ||
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因为我们的经济体量实在太大了,单靠基建是无法支撑经济增长的,无论怎么折腾都是这样。 | ||
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02 | ||
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企业躺平:给钱不要,就要裁员! | ||
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4月份新增人民币贷款6454亿元,3月份为31254亿,去年同期为1.47万亿。 | ||
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也就是说,4月新增人民币贷款比3月份减少2.48万亿,降幅79%;比去年同期减少0.83万亿,降幅56%! | ||
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其中,中长期占比31.7%,较上月下降23个百分点,较去年同期下降47个百分点,为近几年最低。 | ||
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对比一下,最近几年中长期贷款占比的平均数是78%,4月份的数据太差了。 | ||
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长期贷款萎缩,就说明企业不看好未来发展,不愿意扩大生产和规模。 | ||
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回到现实世界也确实是这样,现在只有核酸检测和疫苗行业红火,一个公司的区域总奖金都能超过3000万。 | ||
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除此之外,其他行业差不多都躺平了,别说扩大生产了,都在缩小规模和裁员。 | ||
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看几个新闻: | ||
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1、据东财统计,截止4月30日,A股共有4650家企业公布了员工变动人数,其中1697家企业进行了不同程度的裁员,裁员总数为91万。 | ||
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要知道,上市企业差不多都是优质龙头企业,他们还大幅裁员,可见全社会“灵活就业人口”规模有多大。 | ||
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2、之前还调侃,今年1000多万高校毕业生找工作的时候会发现,老板们都消失了,他们可怎么办呀? | ||
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现在出台政策了,国务院办公厅发布了[《关于进一步做好高校毕业生等青年就业创业工作的通知》](http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-05/13/content_5690111.htm)。 | ||
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政策具有惯性和滞后性,当一个政策出台的时候,就说明这个问题已经相当严峻了。 | ||
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这个政策有效果吗?有,但是不大。 | ||
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大环境好的时候,有经验有资源的人创业还都是九死一生,现在大环境这样子,刚出校门的大学生创业,他爸妈会同意么? | ||
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另外,文件里提到的补贴,以及税收优惠政策,力度太小,根本不足以吸引到企业家扩大规模。 | ||
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只有一种情况这个数据会非常好看,那就是政策有漏洞可钻,有补贴可骗。 | ||
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03 | ||
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居民躺平:不买车、不买房! | ||
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4月份居民贷款新增-2170亿元,同比多减7453亿元。其中,住房贷款减少605亿元,同比少增4022亿元; | ||
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不含住房贷款的消费贷款减少1044亿元,同比少增1861亿元;经营贷款减少521亿元,同比少增1569亿元。 | ||
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先看居民消费,中国居民收入是K型,绝大部分民众的消费已经相当疲软了,因此消费贷款骤降在预期之中。 | ||
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从结构上看,居民消费贷更差,这里面不少信用卡贷款和其他短期贷款,这些贷款越多,说明经济形势越不好。 | ||
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而真正优质的消费贷(汽车消费贷款)更惨。 | ||
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看数据: | ||
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>中汽协数据显示,4月,国内汽车产销分别完成120.5万辆和118.1万辆,环比分别下降46.2%和47.1%,同比分别下降46.1%和47.6%。 | ||
汽车产销量双双“腰斩”,为近十年来同期月度新低。 | ||
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 | ||
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所以,近期有人呼吁重启“汽车下乡”政策,以刺激汽车消费。 | ||
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我认为,这个政策的效果也不大,因为经过之前的政策刺激,农村过去几十年压抑的汽车消费潜能已经集中释放过了,剩下的需求都很鸡肋。 | ||
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再看居民住房贷款。 | ||
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2月份,居民住房贷款减少459亿元,为2007年有统计数据以来首次负增长。 | ||
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3月份,情况有所缓和,但是居民住房贷款仍然同比少增2500亿。 | ||
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4月份,居民住房贷款有史以来第二次减少,且减少幅度扩大,为605亿元,同比少增规模高达4022亿元。 | ||
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这说明什么? | ||
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无论是降低首付、解除限购、降低贷款利率等等,无论政策怎么刺激,居民就是不买房了! | ||
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看几个新闻: | ||
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5月12日,[融创中国公告](https://www.sunac.com.cn/upload/file/2022-05-12/e9968cd3-6f68-47c7-af2a-2a52b9ba43f0.pdf),无法支付4笔陆续到期的美元债利息,合计金额超7亿人民币。 | ||
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这意味着,融创正式违约! | ||
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对比一下,融创总资产1.2万亿人民币,现在居然连7亿的利息都无法支付,说明账上确实没钱了。 | ||
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目前,全国龙头房企中,恒大彻底倒下,融创也正式违约,碧桂园负面消息不断,只剩万科暂时没事儿。 | ||
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普通民众如何看楼市呢?看开发商。 | ||
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只要开发商还在不断爆雷,房地产的下行趋势就没有扭转。 | ||
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还有,千万别被开发商拿地行为给迷惑了,他们拿地不一定看好未来市场,也有可能是用这块地来融资,以确保活命。 | ||
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告诫大家,别被杂乱的信息误导了,什么开发商怎么炒作概念,“挑选”数据鼓吹,全国各个城市和个别楼盘当典型等等。 | ||
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只有居民贷款数据是诚实的:大家不买房了! | ||
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这才4月份,二季度才刚刚开始,困难的日子还没有到头。 |