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664 changes: 664 additions & 0 deletions inst/manuscript/R/00-standalone-Figure-replication.R

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288 changes: 249 additions & 39 deletions inst/manuscript/manuscript.Rmd

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30 changes: 21 additions & 9 deletions inst/manuscript/manuscript.aux
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\newlabel{tab:metrics-summary}{{2}{5}{}{table.2}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {2}{\ignorespaces Summary table of scores available in {\fontseries {m}\fontseries {b}\selectfont scoringutils}. This table (including corresponding function names) can be accessed by calling \bgroup \catcode `\_12\relax \catcode `\~12\relax \catcode `\$12\relax {\normalfont \ttfamily \hyphenchar \font =-1 scoringutils::metrics}\egroup in \textsf {R}. Not all metrics are implemented for all types of forecasts and forecasting formats, as indicated by tickmarks, '-', or '$\sim $' (depends). D (discrete forecasts based on predictive samples), C (continuous, sample-based forecasts), B (binary), and Q (any forecasts in a quantile-based format) refer to different forecast formats. While the distinction is not clear-cut (e.g. binary is a special case of discrete), it is useful in the context of the package as available functions and functionality may differ. For a more detailed description of the terms used in this table see the corresponding paper sections (e.g. for 'global' and 'local' see section \ref {localglobal}). For mathematical defintions of the metrics see Table \ref {tab:score-table-detailed}.\relax }}{5}{table.2}\protected@file@percent }
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\citation{gneitingProbabilisticForecastsCalibration2007}
\citation{dawidPresentPositionPotential1984}
\citation{angusProbabilityIntegralTransform1994}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -109,10 +109,13 @@
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Expand Down Expand Up @@ -143,8 +146,14 @@
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\bibdata{references.bib,scoringutils-paper.bib}
\bibcite{angusProbabilityIntegralTransform1994}{{1}{1994}{{Angus}}{{}}}
\bibcite{bracherEvaluatingEpidemicForecasts2021}{{2}{2021{a}}{{Bracher \emph {et~al.}}}{{Bracher, Ray, Gneiting, and Reich}}}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -176,10 +185,13 @@
\bibcite{mannTestWhetherOne1947}{{28}{1947}{{Mann and Whitney}}{{}}}
\bibcite{mathesonScoringRulesContinuous1976}{{29}{1976}{{Matheson and Winkler}}{{}}}
\bibcite{murphyNoteRankedProbability1971a}{{30}{1971}{{Murphy}}{{}}}
\bibcite{R}{{31}{2021}{{R Core Team}}{{}}}
\bibcite{reichCollaborativeMultiyearMultimodel2019}{{32}{2019}{{Reich \emph {et~al.}}}{{Reich, Brooks, Fox, Kandula, McGowan, Moore, Osthus, Ray, Tushar, Yamana, Biggerstaff, Johansson, Rosenfeld, and Shaman}}}
\bibcite{timmermannForecastingMethodsFinance2018}{{33}{2018}{{Timmermann}}{{}}}
\bibcite{winklerScoringRulesEvaluation1996}{{34}{1996}{{Winkler \emph {et~al.}}}{{Winkler, Mu{\~n}oz, Cervera, Bernardo, Blattenberger, Kadane, Lindley, Murphy, Oliver, and {R{\'i}os-Insua}}}}
\bibcite{MLmetrics}{{35}{2016}{{Yan}}{{}}}
\bibcite{topmodels}{{36}{2022}{{Zeileis and Lang}}{{}}}
\bibcite{tibble}{{31}{2022}{{Müller and Wickham}}{{}}}
\bibcite{R}{{32}{2021}{{R Core Team}}{{}}}
\bibcite{reichCollaborativeMultiyearMultimodel2019}{{33}{2019}{{Reich \emph {et~al.}}}{{Reich, Brooks, Fox, Kandula, McGowan, Moore, Osthus, Ray, Tushar, Yamana, Biggerstaff, Johansson, Rosenfeld, and Shaman}}}
\bibcite{timmermannForecastingMethodsFinance2018}{{34}{2018}{{Timmermann}}{{}}}
\bibcite{ggplot2}{{35}{2016}{{Wickham}}{{}}}
\bibcite{winklerScoringRulesEvaluation1996}{{36}{1996}{{Winkler \emph {et~al.}}}{{Winkler, Mu{\~n}oz, Cervera, Bernardo, Blattenberger, Kadane, Lindley, Murphy, Oliver, and {R{\'i}os-Insua}}}}
\bibcite{MLmetrics}{{37}{2016}{{Yan}}{{}}}
\bibcite{topmodels}{{38}{2022}{{Zeileis and Lang}}{{}}}
\bibcite{kableExtra}{{39}{2021}{{Zhu}}{{}}}
\gdef \@abspage@last{42}
30 changes: 25 additions & 5 deletions inst/manuscript/manuscript.bbl
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
\begin{thebibliography}{36}
\begin{thebibliography}{39}
\newcommand{\enquote}[1]{``#1''}
\providecommand{\natexlab}[1]{#1}
\providecommand{\url}[1]{\texttt{#1}}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -62,8 +62,8 @@ Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, G{\"o}rgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott

\bibitem[{Brier(1950)}]{brierVERIFICATIONFORECASTSEXPRESSED1950}
Brier GW (1950).
\newblock \enquote{{{VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF
PROBABILITY}}.}
\newblock \enquote{{{Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of
Probability}}.}
\newblock \emph{Monthly Weather Review}, \textbf{78}(1), 1--3.
\newblock ISSN 1520-0493, 0027-0644.
\newblock \doi{10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2}.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -152,7 +152,7 @@ Cramer E, Reich NG, Wang SY, Niemi J, Hannan A, House K, Gu Y, Xie S, Horstman
Dawid AP (1984).
\newblock \enquote{Present {{Position}} and {{Potential Developments}}: {{Some
Personal Views Statistical Theory}} the {{Prequential Approach}}.}
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General)},
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A (General)},
\textbf{147}(2), 278--290.
\newblock ISSN 2397-2327.
\newblock \doi{10.2307/2981683}.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -229,7 +229,7 @@ Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A (2014).
Raftery}]{gneitingProbabilisticForecastsCalibration2007}
Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F, Raftery AE (2007).
\newblock \enquote{Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness.}
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B (Statistical
Methodology)}, \textbf{69}(2), 243--268.
\newblock ISSN 1467-9868.
\newblock \doi{10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00587.x}.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -347,6 +347,12 @@ Murphy AH (1971).
\newblock ISSN 1520-0450.
\newblock \doi{10.1175/1520-0450(1971)010<0155:ANOTRP>2.0.CO;2}.

\bibitem[{Müller and Wickham(2022)}]{tibble}
Müller K, Wickham H (2022).
\newblock \emph{tibble: Simple Data Frames}.
\newblock R package version 3.1.7,
\urlprefix\url{https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tibble}.

\bibitem[{{R Core Team}(2021)}]{R}
{R Core Team} (2021).
\newblock \emph{R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing}.
Expand All @@ -373,6 +379,13 @@ Timmermann A (2018).
449--479.
\newblock \doi{10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022713}.

\bibitem[{Wickham(2016)}]{ggplot2}
Wickham H (2016).
\newblock \emph{ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis}.
\newblock Springer-Verlag New York.
\newblock ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4.
\newblock \urlprefix\url{https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org}.

\bibitem[{Winkler \emph{et~al.}(1996)Winkler, Mu{\~n}oz, Cervera, Bernardo,
Blattenberger, Kadane, Lindley, Murphy, Oliver, and
{R{\'i}os-Insua}}]{winklerScoringRulesEvaluation1996}
Expand All @@ -396,4 +409,11 @@ Zeileis A, Lang MN (2022).
\newblock R package version 0.1-0/r1498,
\urlprefix\url{https://R-Forge.R-project.org/projects/topmodels/}.

\bibitem[{Zhu(2021)}]{kableExtra}
Zhu H (2021).
\newblock \emph{kableExtra: Construct Complex Table with 'kable' and Pipe
Syntax}.
\newblock R package version 1.3.4,
\urlprefix\url{https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=kableExtra}.

\end{thebibliography}
60 changes: 30 additions & 30 deletions inst/manuscript/manuscript.blg
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Expand Up @@ -5,44 +5,44 @@ The style file: jss.bst
Database file #1: references.bib
Database file #2: scoringutils-paper.bib
Reallocated wiz_functions (elt_size=4) to 6000 items from 3000.
You've used 36 entries,
You've used 39 entries,
3215 wiz_defined-function locations,
948 strings with 22335 characters,
and the built_in function-call counts, 110905 in all, are:
= -- 11669
> -- 4189
< -- 24
+ -- 1584
- -- 1534
* -- 8714
:= -- 12139
add.period$ -- 190
call.type$ -- 36
change.case$ -- 658
chr.to.int$ -- 37
cite$ -- 36
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965 strings with 22741 characters,
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= -- 11843
> -- 4228
< -- 27
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if$ -- 22793
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int.to.str$ -- 1
missing$ -- 801
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write$ -- 616
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion inst/manuscript/manuscript.out
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\BOOKMARK [1][-]{Section.0.Introduction.1}{\376\377\000I\000n\000t\000r\000o\000d\000u\000c\000t\000i\000o\000n}{}% 1
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\BOOKMARK [2][-]{Subsection.1.1.The Forecasting paradigm.2}{\376\377\000T\000h\000e\000\040\000F\000o\000r\000e\000c\000a\000s\000t\000i\000n\000g\000\040\000p\000a\000r\000a\000d\000i\000g\000m}{Section.0.Introduction.1}% 3
\BOOKMARK [2][-]{Subsection.1.1.The forecasting paradigm.2}{\376\377\000T\000h\000e\000\040\000f\000o\000r\000e\000c\000a\000s\000t\000i\000n\000g\000\040\000p\000a\000r\000a\000d\000i\000g\000m}{Section.0.Introduction.1}% 3
\BOOKMARK [1][-]{Section.1.Scoring metrics implemented in scoringutils.1}{\376\377\000S\000c\000o\000r\000i\000n\000g\000\040\000m\000e\000t\000r\000i\000c\000s\000\040\000i\000m\000p\000l\000e\000m\000e\000n\000t\000e\000d\000\040\000i\000n\000\040\000s\000c\000o\000r\000i\000n\000g\000u\000t\000i\000l\000s}{}% 4
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25 changes: 25 additions & 0 deletions inst/manuscript/references.bib
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Expand Up @@ -53,3 +53,28 @@ @Article{tscount
pages = {1--51},
doi = {10.18637/jss.v082.i05},
}

@Book{ggplot2,
author = {Hadley Wickham},
title = {ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag New York},
year = {2016},
isbn = {978-3-319-24277-4},
url = {https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org},
}

@Manual{tibble,
title = {tibble: Simple Data Frames},
author = {Kirill Müller and Hadley Wickham},
year = {2022},
note = {R package version 3.1.7},
url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tibble},
}

@Manual{kableExtra,
title = {kableExtra: Construct Complex Table with 'kable' and Pipe Syntax},
author = {Hao Zhu},
year = {2021},
note = {R package version 1.3.4},
url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=kableExtra},
}
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions inst/manuscript/scoringutils-paper.bib
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ @article{bracherShorttermForecastingCOVID192021
}

@article{brierVERIFICATIONFORECASTSEXPRESSED1950,
title = {{{VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY}}},
title = {{{Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability}}},
author = {Brier, Glenn W.},
year = {1950},
month = jan,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -152,7 +152,7 @@ @article{dawidPresentPositionPotential1984
shorttitle = {Present {{Position}} and {{Potential Developments}}},
author = {Dawid, A. P.},
year = {1984},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General)},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A (General)},
volume = {147},
number = {2},
pages = {278--290},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -279,7 +279,7 @@ @article{gneitingProbabilisticForecastsCalibration2007
title = {Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness},
author = {Gneiting, Tilmann and Balabdaoui, Fadoua and Raftery, Adrian E.},
year = {2007},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B (Statistical Methodology)},
volume = {69},
number = {2},
pages = {243--268},
Expand Down