Arctic-BLISS (Arctic atmospheric Boundary Layer Influence in Sea ice ensemble Simulations: a predictability & sensitivity study, 2024-2026) is a project funded by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) of the European Union, led by Stephanie Leroux from Datlas, in collaboration with P. Rampal and J.-M. Brankart from IGE, Y. Ying, L. Bertino and E. Olason from NERSC and F. Lemarié from INRIA.
The goal is to evaluate the short-term predictability of sea ice drift in an model integrating three innovative elements of future operational CMEMS systems:
- a brittle/fracture rheology (e.g., Ólason et al. 2022),
- the coupling of the ocean-sea-ice model with an interactive atmospheric boundary layer (ABL, Lemarié et al. 2021),
- and an ensemble modeling framework following e.g. Leroux et al 2020.
Metrics dedicated to sea ice drift, ensemble simulations, and a cross-validation approach will be combined to address the questions of sea ice drift predictability for a given initial error, and how the activation of an interactive ABL, with or without brittle rheology, can affect the quality and accuracy of the forecasting system.
Documents and codes will be shared in this page.
