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covid19_italy.py

@@ -35,41 +35,41 @@ def exponential(x, a, b):
 x2 = range(len(infetti)+delta_t)
 t = linspace(0,len(infetti)+delta_t,100)
 
-lower_1 = [2000,0.001,1]
+lower_1 = [1000,0.001,0]
 # upper_1 = [10000,1,10]
 # lower_2 = [10000,0.001,7]
 # upper_2 = [15000,1,20]
 # lower_3 = [100000,0.001,20]
-upper_3 = [1000000,1,100]
+upper_3 = [500000,1,100]
 # p0_1 = [6000,0.2,3]
 # p0_2 = [12000,0.2,7]
 # p0_3 = [150000,0.2,40]
 p0 = [20000,(lower_1[1]+upper_3[1])/2,(lower_1[2]+upper_3[2])/2]
 print(p0)
 
-popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x[:-2],infetti[:-2],p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1, upper_3),method='trf',
-max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
-max_infected1 = popt[0]
-error1 = sqrt(diag(pcov))[0]
-fitted1 = [sigmoid(i,*popt) for i in t]
-print(str(popt)+" +- "+str(error1))
-
-popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x[:-1],infetti[:-1],p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1, upper_3),method='trf',
-max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
-max_infected2 = popt[0]
-error2 = sqrt(diag(pcov))[0]
-fitted2 = [sigmoid(i,*popt) for i in t]
-print(str(popt)+" +- "+str(error2))
-
-popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x,infetti,p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1, upper_3),method='trf',
-max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
+# popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x[:-2],infetti[:-2],p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1, upper_3),method='trf',
+# max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
+# max_infected1 = popt[0]
+# error1 = sqrt(diag(pcov))[0]
+# fitted1 = [sigmoid(i,*popt) for i in t]
+# print(str(popt)+" +- "+str(error1))
+#
+# popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x[:-1],infetti[:-1],p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1, upper_3),method='trf',
+# max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
+# max_infected2 = popt[0]
+# error2 = sqrt(diag(pcov))[0]
+# fitted2 = [sigmoid(i,*popt) for i in t]
+# print(str(popt)+" +- "+str(error2))
+
+popt, pcov = curve_fit(sigmoid,x,infetti,p0=p0,bounds=(lower_1,upper_3),method='trf',
+max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="huber")
 max_infected3 = popt[0]
 error3 = sqrt(diag(pcov))[0]
 fitted3 = [sigmoid(i,*popt) for i in t]
 print(str(popt)+" +- "+str(error3))
 
 popt, pcov = curve_fit(exponential,x,infetti,p0=[400,0.2],bounds=([100,0], [1000,2]),method='trf',
-max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-12,gtol=1e-12,ftol=1e-12,jac="3-point",loss="linear")
+max_nfev=50000,xtol=1e-15,gtol=1e-15,ftol=1e-15,jac="3-point",loss="huber")
 print(popt)
 exp_fit = [exponential(i,*popt) for i in t]
 
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ def exponential(x, a, b):
 plt.xlabel("Tempo (Giorni dal 24/02/2020)")
 plt.ylabel("Persone infette")
 plt.legend()
-plt.savefig("infetti1.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
+plt.savefig("img/"+str(date)+"_1.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
 plt.clf()
 
 plt.plot(t,exp_fit,linestyle="-.",zorder=1,label="$N_{MAX}=\infty$")
@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ def exponential(x, a, b):
 plt.xlabel("Tempo (Giorni dal 24/02/2020)")
 plt.ylabel("Persone infette")
 plt.legend()
-plt.savefig("infetti2.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
+plt.savefig("img/"+str(date)+"_2.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
 plt.clf()
 
 ##################################################################
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ def exponential(x, a, b):
 plt.scatter(x[:-1],variazione_infetti,marker="^",color="black",s=40,zorder=4)
 plt.xlabel("Tempo (Giorni dal 25/02/2020)")
 plt.ylabel("Nuovi infetti")
-plt.savefig("nuovi_infetti.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
+plt.savefig("img/nuovi_infetti.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
 plt.clf()
 
 growth_factor = [variazione_infetti[i+1]/variazione_infetti[i] for i in range(len(variazione_infetti)-1)]
@@ -122,5 +122,5 @@ def exponential(x, a, b):
 plt.scatter(x[:-2],growth_factor,marker="^",color="black",s=40,zorder=4)
 plt.xlabel("Tempo (Giorni dal 26/02/2020)")
 plt.ylabel("Fattore di crescita")
-plt.savefig("growth_factor.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
+plt.savefig("img/growth_factor.png",dpi=300,bbox_inches='tight')
 plt.clf()