Replace mock data with live arbitrage calculation system for prediction markets

[Copilot]

This PR completely transforms the application from using mock data to a fully functional prediction market arbitrage platform with live data integration and real-time opportunity calculation.

Overview

The original components contained hardcoded mock data for demonstration purposes. This implementation replaces all mock data with:

• Live market data from Polymarket and Kalshi APIs
• Real-time arbitrage calculations based on orderbook snapshots
• Intelligent market matching using fuzzy similarity algorithms
• Persistent data storage for match history and condition mappings

Key Components Added

Shared Data Layer (src/api/)

• API Services: Modular services for Polymarket (polymarket.ts) and Kalshi (kalshi.ts) with proper caching
• Polling System: Configurable real-time data polling with 2.5s intervals for Polymarket and 5s for Kalshi
• TypeScript Types: Comprehensive type definitions for markets, conditions, orderbooks, and arbitrage opportunities

Business Logic (src/utils/)

• Fuzzy Matching: Advanced similarity scoring using title, date, category, and settlement source analysis
• Arbitrage Engine: Automated calculation of profit opportunities from condition mappings with relationship === 'same'
• Match Store: localStorage-backed persistent storage for market pairs and condition mappings

Arbitrage Calculation Logic

The system implements the business logic specified in the requirements:

// For each 'same' relationship condition mapping
const minYes = Math.min(kalshiYesAsk, polymarketYesAsk)
const minNo = Math.min(kalshiNoAsk, polymarketNoAsk)
const totalCost = minYes + minNo

// Arbitrage exists when total cost < 1.00
if (totalCost < 1.0) {
  const rPeriod = (1 - totalCost) / totalCost
  const dailyReturn = rPeriod / daysUntilClose
}

Component Updates

MarketMatcher

• Replaced mock arrays with live useMarketData() hook
• Implemented fuzzy similarity scoring with title, date, and category matching
• Added persistent match storage with condition mapping workflow
• Real-time market filtering and search functionality

ArbitrageBets

• Completely replaced mock arbitrage data with computed opportunities from MatchStore
• Real-time calculation of profit margins, daily returns, and risk assessment
• Live orderbook integration for accurate bid/ask prices
• Automatic refresh every 30 seconds

EcosystemMatcher & MatchedEcosystems

• Updated to use live market data from both exchanges
• Integration with the shared MatchStore for data consistency
• Dynamic ecosystem creation from selected market pairs

Technical Architecture

The implementation follows a clean separation of concerns:

• Data Layer: API services with caching and error handling
• State Management: React hooks with localStorage persistence
• Business Logic: Pure functions for calculations and matching
• UI Components: Updated to handle loading states and live data

Deployment Ready

Added complete build configuration with:

• Vite + TypeScript setup
• Main App component with navigation
• Comprehensive documentation
• Package.json with all dependencies

The application is now ready for production deployment and can handle real trading scenarios with live market data.

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