Machine Learning Day Trading Model

A sophisticated stock price prediction and automated trading system that combines machine learning with eToro virtual portfolio integration.

Features

Stock Price Prediction

• Real-time stock data fetching from Alpha Vantage API
• Machine learning-based price predictions for the next trading day
• Support for 30 major stocks including AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc.
• Automatic fallback to mock data generation when API limits are reached
• Comprehensive technical analysis including:
  • Price predictions (open, high, low, close)
  • Volume analysis
  • Market sentiment indicators
  • Trend strength assessment
  • Volatility metrics

Trading Integration

• eToro virtual portfolio integration
• Manual trading capabilities (buy/sell)
• Automated trading based on ML predictions
• Risk management features:
  • Position sizing recommendations
  • Stop-loss calculations
  • Take-profit targets
  • Risk/reward ratio analysis
  • Maximum 2% risk per trade

User Interface

• Modern, responsive web interface
• Real-time data visualization
• Top 20 predicted returns dashboard
• Clear market sentiment indicators
• Trading signals with confidence scores
• Portfolio balance tracking

Setup

Prerequisites

• Java 11 or higher
• Maven
• eToro virtual trading account
• Alpha Vantage API key

Project Structure

.
├── config.properties           # Configuration file
├── data/                      # Data directory
│   ├── csv/                   # CSV files for stock data
│   └── json/                  # JSON files for API responses
├── src/                       # Source code
└── target/                    # Compiled files

Configuration

1. Create a config.properties file in the project root:

api.key=YOUR_ALPHA_VANTAGE_API_KEY
etoro.username=YOUR_ETORO_USERNAME
etoro.password=YOUR_ETORO_PASSWORD

2. Install dependencies:

mvn clean install

3. Run the application:

mvn exec:java -Dexec.mainClass="WebVisualization"

The server will start on port 8080 (or the next available port up to 8089).

API Key Setup

1. Sign up for an Alpha Vantage API key at https://www.alphavantage.co/support/#api-key
2. Create a file named AlphaVantageAPI.txt in the project root directory
3. Add your API key to this file (single line, no quotes or spaces)
4. This file is ignored by git to keep your API key secure

Alternatively, you can add your API key to config.properties:

1. Copy config.properties.template to config.properties
2. Replace YOUR_API_KEY_HERE with your actual API key

Note: Never commit files containing your actual API key to version control.

Usage

1. Access the web interface at http://localhost:8080

2. Log in to your eToro virtual portfolio

3. For individual stock analysis:

   • Enter a stock symbol (e.g., AAPL)
   • View comprehensive prediction results
   • Execute manual or automated trades

4. Monitor the Top 20 Predictions dashboard for the best trading opportunities

Trading Features

Manual Trading

• Use the "Buy Stock" and "Sell Stock" buttons for manual trades
• Default position size: 1 share per trade
• Real-time portfolio balance updates

Automated Trading

• Click "Auto Trade" for ML-driven trading decisions
• Minimum 80% confidence threshold for automated trades
• Automated position sizing based on:
  • Account balance
  • Stock volatility
  • Prediction confidence
  • Maximum 2% risk per trade

Technical Details

Data Sources

• Primary: Alpha Vantage API (real-time market data)
• Backup: Sophisticated mock data generation with realistic price movements
• Data Storage:
  • CSV files in data/csv/ for historical stock data
  • JSON files in data/json/ for API responses

Machine Learning Model

• Features:
  • Historical price data
  • Volume analysis
  • Technical indicators
  • Market trends
• Performance metrics:
  • Correlation coefficient
  • Mean absolute error
  • Root mean squared error
  • Relative absolute error

Error Handling

• Automatic failover to mock data when API limits are reached
• Comprehensive error reporting
• Rate limit management
• Data validation and sanitization

Limitations

• Alpha Vantage API has rate limits (calls per minute/day)
• Mock data is used when API limits are reached
• Virtual trading only (no real money transactions)
• Limited to supported stock symbols

Contributing

Feel free to submit issues and enhancement requests.

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.