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1 | 1 | # LCT SECIR model |
2 | 2 |
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3 | 3 | This model is based on the Linear Chain Trick. |
| 4 | + |
| 5 | +The Linear Chain Trick provides the option to use Erlang-distributed sojourn times in the compartments through the use of subcompartments. |
| 6 | +The normal ODE models have (possibly unrealistic) exponentially distributed sojourn times. |
| 7 | +The LCT model can still be described by an ordinary differential equation system. |
| 8 | + |
4 | 9 | For the concept see |
5 | 10 | - Lena Plötzke, "Der Linear Chain Trick in der epidemiologischen Modellierung als Kompromiss zwischen gewöhnlichen und Integro-Differentialgleichungen", 2023. (https://elib.dlr.de/200381/, German only) |
6 | 11 | - P. J. Hurtado und A. S. Kirosingh, "Generalizations of the ‘Linear Chain Trick’: incorporating more flexible dwell time distributions into mean field ODE models“, 2019. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-019-01412-w) |
7 | 12 |
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8 | 13 | The eight compartments |
9 | | -- Susceptible, may become exposed at any time |
10 | | -- Exposed, becomes infected after some time |
11 | | -- InfectedNoSymptoms, becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time |
12 | | -- InfectedSymptoms, becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time |
13 | | -- InfectedSevere, becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time |
14 | | -- InfectedCritical, becomes Recovered or Dead after some time |
15 | | -- Recovered |
16 | | -- Dead |
| 14 | +- `Susceptible` ($S$), may become exposed at any time |
| 15 | +- `Exposed` ($E$), becomes infected after some time |
| 16 | +- `InfectedNoSymptoms` ($I_{NS}$), becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time |
| 17 | +- `InfectedSymptoms` ($I_{Sy}$), becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time |
| 18 | +- `InfectedSevere` ($I_{Sev}$), becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time |
| 19 | +- `InfectedCritical` ($I_{Cr}$), becomes Recovered or Dead after some time |
| 20 | +- `Recovered` ($R$) |
| 21 | +- `Dead` ($D$) |
17 | 22 |
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18 | 23 | are used to simulate the spread of the disease. |
19 | 24 | It is possible to include subcompartments for the five compartments Exposed, InfectedNoSymptoms, InfectedSymptoms, InfectedSevere and InfectedCritical. |
20 | 25 |
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21 | | -A simple example can be found at: examples/lct_secir.cpp. |
| 26 | +Below is an overview of the model architecture and its compartments. |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | + |
| 29 | + |
| 30 | +| Mathematical variable | C++ variable name | Description | |
| 31 | +|---------------------------- | --------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| 32 | +| $\phi$ | `ContactPatterns` | Average number of contacts of a person per day. | |
| 33 | +| $\rho$ | `TransmissionProbabilityOnContact` | Transmission risk for people located in the susceptible compartments. | |
| 34 | +| $\xi_{I_{NS}}$ | `RelativeTransmissionNoSymptoms` | Proportion of nonsymptomatically infected people who are not isolated. | |
| 35 | +| $\xi_{I_{Sy}}$ | `RiskOfInfectionFromSymptomatic` | Proportion of infected people with symptomps who are not isolated. | |
| 36 | +| $N$ | `m_N0` | Total population. | |
| 37 | +| $D$ | `D` | Number of death people. | |
| 38 | +| $n_E$ | Defined via `InfectionState` | Number of subcompartments of the Exposed compartment. | |
| 39 | +| $n_{NS}$ | Defined via `InfectionState` | Number of subcompartments of the InfectedNoSymptoms compartment. | |
| 40 | +| $n_{Sy}$ | Defined via `InfectionState` | Number of subcompartments of the InfectedSymptoms compartment. | |
| 41 | +| $n_{Sev}$ | Defined via `InfectionState` | Number of subcompartments of the InfectedSevere compartment.| |
| 42 | +| $n_{Cr}$ | Defined via `InfectionState` | Number of subcompartments of the InfectedCritical compartment. | |
| 43 | +| $T_E$ | `TimeExposed` | Average time in days an individual stays in the Exposed compartment. | |
| 44 | +| $T_{I_{NS}}$ | `TimeInfectedNoSymptoms` | Average time in days an individual stays in the InfectedNoSymptoms compartment. | |
| 45 | +| $T_{I_{Sy}}$ | `TimeInfectedSymptoms` | Average time in days an individual stays in the InfectedSymptoms compartment. | |
| 46 | +| $T_{I_{Sev}}$ | `TimeInfectedSevere` | Average time in days an individual stays in the InfectedSevere compartment. | |
| 47 | +| $T_{I_{Cr}}$ | `TimeInfectedCritical` | Average time in days an individual stays in the InfectedCritical compartment. | |
| 48 | +| $\mu_{I_{NS}}^{R}$ | `RecoveredPerInfectedNoSymptoms` | Probability of transition from compartment InfectedNoSymptoms to Recovered. | |
| 49 | +| $\mu_{I_{Sy}}^{I_{Sev}}$ | `SeverePerInfectedSymptoms` | Probability of transition from compartment InfectedSymptoms to InfectedSevere. | |
| 50 | +| $\mu_{I_{Sev}}^{I_{Cr}}$ | `CriticalPerSevere` | Probability of transition from compartment InfectedSevere to InfectedCritical. | |
| 51 | +| $\mu_{I_{Cr}}^{D}$ | `DeathsPerCritical` | Probability of dying when in compartment InfectedCritical. | |
| 52 | + |
| 53 | +The notation of the compartments with indices here stands for subcompartments and not for age groups or similar, as in some ODE models. Accordingly, $I_{NS,n_{NS}}$, for example, stands for the number of people in the $n_{NS}$-th subcompartment of the InfectedNoSymptoms compartment. |
| 54 | + |
| 55 | + |
| 56 | +## Examples |
22 | 57 |
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| 58 | +A simple example can be found at [LCT minimal example](../../examples/lct_secir.cpp). |
23 | 59 |
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