This repository contains the code for constructing the input probability distributions for the hybrid threat scenario. It also contains the causal influence diagram approach to compute the optimal counter-hybrid measure per scenario as well as the multi-agent influence diagram approach to compute equilibria under strategic contestation. Finally, this repository contains the sensitivity analyses conducted to gauge individual parameter contributions to the model output.
The Notebook Game_Theoretic_Approach_Hybrid_Deterrence contains the construction of the distributions, which are sampled from to construct 1000 experiments. Both the causal influence diagram simulations, as well as the multi-agent influence diagram simulations, are included in this notebook. It also contains some visualizations of the results.
The Global Sensitivity Analysis Reporting tool of Stein et al. (2022) is used to conduct the sensitivity analyses. Full reports are available in the folder Sensitivity Analyses. For details on the tool, we refer to the original repository https://github.com/nikivanstein/GSAreport, while specifics about the reported values can be found in the original paper: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9903639. To open the sensitivity reports, the entire repository should be cloned first.