Foresight feature in MUSE requires revision

[ahawkes]

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Based on the description in the documentation at section 5.6 "Foresight in MUSE", the foresight feature requires reformulation. MUSE steps forward across the milestone years only once. Therefore it is not possible to have any endogenously simulated knowledge of t=2 when you are at t=1. The only way an agent can have "foresight" of t=2 is via input parameters (i.e. the projections of price that are input). But this is not really foresight, because those projections will almost always be different to what actually happens in the simulation at t=2. So they are more "agent beliefs" than foresight.
 

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Two main things need to be changed (along with commensurate changes in the documentation, examples, OU course etc):

1. If it's not already the case, the modelling of foresight needs to be either (a) no foresight (this is the default case) where all prices are flat forward of the investment year. i.e. prices are those as converged upon in the iterations for that year. Or (b) "agent beliefs" where the user input prices in the projections file are used (for the entire lifetime of the technology considered). Documentation need to be updated to say that this is what is happening - really really clearly. Note that agents will NEVER have foresight of techno-economic parameters - only commodity prices.
2. The diagram in section 5.6 says that for t=1, the techno-economics of t=2 is considered (instead of the technoeconomics of t=1). During convergence on a milestone year, investment decisions for that year are finalised. Therefore the techno-economics of t=1 must be used during these calculations, not the techno-economic parameters for t=2.

Describe alternatives you've considered

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None. This needs to be changed to improve clarity of model results - it should make them more intuitive.

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