fix(route/futunn): render article pages via playwright to bypass WAF - #22968
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fix(route/futunn): render article pages via playwright to bypass WAF#22968wangjuns wants to merge 1 commit into
wangjuns wants to merge 1 commit into
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Futu's WAF returns an obfuscated JS shell to requests without a browser fingerprint (e.g. got), so entry content in the /futunn/main and /futunn/topic feeds has been empty. Fall back to playwright rendering when got fails to retrieve the .origin_content element, then extract the article body and category as before. Add requirePuppeteer to the affected routes.
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Auto Review[Comments Language — AGENTS.md #53]
[Avoid Loading HTML Twice — AGENTS.md #15]
[Avoid Multiple Sessions / Puppeteer usage — AGENTS.md #43]
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Successfully generated as following: http://localhost:1200/futunn/main - Failed ❌... |
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http://localhost:1200/futunn/topic/1267 - Success ✔️<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
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<title>苹果终于把阿里千问接进Siri:中国版Apple Intelligence来了</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>这意味着中国AI公司第一次真正走进了苹果的系统级AI入口。对千问来说,这可能比出现在iPhone里更重要。</p></div><p><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/AAPL-US">苹果 (AAPL.US)</a> 与 <a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/BABA-US">阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)</a> / <a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/09988-HK">阿里巴巴-W (09988.HK)</a> 的AI合作,正在从传闻和监管备案,真正走进苹果的操作系统。</p><p>近日,苹果中国官网的《Mac使用手册》中,已经出现了一个相当醒目的新页面——<span style="font-weight:bold;">“在 Mac 上配合 Apple 智能使用千问”</span>。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260808%2F0-700916cf55cd67c69e1e610028254fee-0-d0076c20ad3fbd02ad257d4c5d2f305d.jpg%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A507%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260808%2F0-700916cf55cd67c69e1e610028254fee-0-d0076c20ad3fbd02ad257d4c5d2f305d.jpg%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A507%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260808%2F0-700916cf55cd67c69e1e610028254fee-0-d0076c20ad3fbd02ad257d4c5d2f305d.jpg%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A507%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260808/0-700916cf55cd67c69e1e610028254fee-0-d0076c20ad3fbd02ad257d4c5d2f305d.jpg/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x507" style="width:1024px;height:507px;aspect-ratio:1024/507;max-height:326.78px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/17862495318696341186030.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">从苹果给出的说明来看,千问并不是以一个独立AI应用的形式进入Mac,而是直接嵌入Apple Intelligence的核心使用场景。</p><p>比如,当Siri无法直接完成某些请求时,用户可以进一步调用千问,获得更加深入的回答,包括对照片和文稿相关内容进行分析;在写作工具中,用户也可以借助千问,根据文字描述生成文本或图像。</p><p>换句话说,<span style="font-weight:bold;">千问正在成为中国版Apple Intelligence背后的外部大模型之一。</span></p><p>这也让苹果在中国的AI路线,第一次变得更加具体。</p><h2>从“苹果牵手阿里”,到千问真正进入系统</h2><p>苹果和阿里的合作其实早有铺垫。</p><p>今年7月,路透社报道称,Apple Intelligence相关生成式AI服务已经完成中国监管部门备案。为了满足中国市场的监管要求,苹果选择与阿里巴巴和百度合作,其中阿里的千问模型将被整合到苹果设备之中,覆盖iOS、iPadOS、macOS和visionOS。</p><p>《华尔街日报》此前也报道称,苹果从2025年初开始推进相关监管程序,并与阿里、百度共同开发部分适用于中国市场的AI功能。</p><p>但当时外界知道的更多还是“谁和苹果合作”。</p><p>现在苹果官方使用手册的更新,则第一次把这种合作具体到了用户体验层面:</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Siri可以调用千问,写作工具也可以调用千问。</span></p><p>这个区别很重要。</p><p>因为这意味着,千问获得的可能并不只是一个“预装应用”的位置,而是进入了苹果最核心的系统级AI入口。</p><p>用户甚至不一定需要主动打开千问App。</p><p>当他们对Siri提出复杂问题、分析文稿或者使用AI写作工具时,背后的部分模型能力就可能来自千问。</p><p>对于阿里来说,这种分发方式的价值,远远高于单纯让用户再下载一个AI应用。</p><h2>苹果正在搭建一套“本地化AI供应链”</h2><p>更值得关注的,是苹果正在形成一种和过去完全不同的AI模式。</p><p>传统智能手机时代,苹果习惯于自己掌握最核心的软件体验:芯片自己设计,操作系统自己开发,Siri也是自己的。</p><p>但进入生成式AI时代之后,大模型更新速度太快、训练成本太高,同时不同国家又存在完全不同的数据和监管要求。</p><p>苹果开始把Apple Intelligence设计成一个更加分层的体系。</p><p>最底层,苹果仍然依靠Apple Silicon以及自己的设备端模型处理大量个人化任务。苹果目前仍将Mac定位为“为AI精心构建”的设备,并强调设备端AI处理和隐私保护。</p><p>但遇到更加复杂、需要更强大模型能力的问题时,系统可以调用外部模型。</p><p>在海外市场,苹果此前已经采用类似思路,把第三方模型能力接入Apple Intelligence。</p><p>到了中国市场,这个角色开始由中国本土AI厂商承担。</p><p>这就意味着,<span style="font-weight:bold;">苹果可能正在建立一条新的“AI供应链”:自己掌握操作系统、硬件、用户入口和体验,底层大模型则可以根据不同市场选择不同供应商。</span></p><p>模型未必一定要全部自己造,但入口必须掌握在自己手里。</p><p>这可能才是苹果AI战略真正值得关注的地方。</p><h2>千问拿到的,是比“装进iPhone”更重要的位置</h2><p>对阿里来说,这笔合作同样意义重大。</p><p>过去一年,中国大模型竞争越来越激烈。</p><p>各家公司不仅要比模型能力,也开始争夺真正的用户入口。</p><p>阿里自己的千问App正在不断增加办公、生活服务、AI Agent、图像和视频生成等功能,试图直接争夺消费者。</p><p>但苹果提供的是另一种完全不同的入口。</p><p>不是让用户想起“我要使用AI”,然后打开一个AI应用,而是让AI直接出现在用户原本就在使用的操作系统功能里。</p><p>Siri、写作工具,未来甚至更多系统级功能,都可能成为大模型的分发渠道。</p><p>这相当于把大模型从一个独立产品,变成操作系统背后的基础能力。</p><p>更重要的是,千问最近仍在快速扩张自己的模型能力。英国《金融时报》本周在分析阿里最新模型Qwen 3.8-Max时就指出,阿里正在尝试把AI转化为新的技术和商业增长引擎,而阿里云则承担着将模型能力商业化的重要角色。</p><p>所以苹果合作带给阿里的意义,不只是“多了一个大客户”。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">它实际上是一次非常重要的模型分发。</span></p><p>如果未来数以千万计的中国苹果设备能够通过系统功能调用千问,阿里获得的将不仅是调用量,还包括一个极其重要的行业背书:</p><p>它的大模型已经有能力成为全球最大消费电子生态之一的底层AI供应商。</p><h2>对苹果来说,这更是一场迟到的补课</h2><p>苹果其实比阿里更需要这次合作。</p><p>Apple Intelligence在全球推出之后,中国大陆市场迟迟无法同步上线,这已经逐渐成为苹果产品竞争中的一个明显短板。</p><p>与此同时,华为、小米、OPPO等中国手机厂商已经快速把生成式AI、智能体和系统级AI能力塞进自己的手机。</p><p>《华尔街日报》此前就指出,Apple Intelligence在中国市场的延迟,使苹果在与中国本土手机厂商竞争时缺少了一项越来越重要的能力。</p><p>这也是为什么苹果不能简单把海外版Apple Intelligence原封不动搬进中国。</p><p>模型、数据处理和监管体系都需要重新适配。</p><p>最终的解决方案,就是寻找中国本土合作伙伴。</p><p>于是出现了现在这个很有意思的组合:</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">苹果提供设备、芯片、操作系统和入口,阿里等中国厂商提供本地大模型能力。</span></p><p>双方各自拿出自己最擅长的部分。</p><h2>AI时代,苹果最重要的可能不是拥有最强模型</h2><p>这件事情背后,其实还有一个更大的问题:</p><p>在AI时代,一家科技公司是不是必须拥有世界上最强的大模型?</p><p>苹果现在给出的答案,可能是否定的。</p><p>过去两年,OpenAI、Google、Anthropic、阿里等公司不断刷新模型能力,但模型之间的差距也在快速变化。</p><p>对于拥有超过十亿级设备生态的苹果来说,与其投入全部资源参加模型军备竞赛,另一条路线可能更加现实:</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">掌握用户入口,然后选择最适合不同市场的模型。</span></p><p>在美国,可以接入美国的模型。</p><p>在中国,可以接入千问等本土模型。</p><p>而苹果自己继续控制芯片、操作系统、隐私架构和最终的用户体验。</p><p>如果这条路线最终成立,那么未来真正有价值的,可能不只是“谁拥有最强模型”,而是<span style="font-weight:bold;">谁能够决定数亿用户在什么时候调用哪个模型。</span></p><p>从这个角度看,苹果官网里那句看似普通的——</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">“从Siri获取更多答案:对于某些请求,Siri可利用千问提供更深入的答案。”</span></p><p>背后的意义其实比“苹果接入千问”大得多。</p><p>它意味着中国AI公司第一次真正走进了苹果的系统级AI入口。</p><p>而对千问来说,<span style="font-weight:bold;">这可能比出现在iPhone里更重要——它开始出现在Siri背后。</span></p></description>
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<title>AI牛市最糟糕的时候过去了吗?华尔街:真正的考验才刚开始</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>美股经历惨烈7月,科技股领跌(纳指跌3.2%)。尽管月末出现反弹,但高盛认为其主要由空头回补驱动,基底并不牢固。</p><p>当前通胀隐忧再起、高利率压制科技股估值,叠加杠杆ETF大量去杠杆,导致市场结构性波动加剧,后续走势仍需非农数据与利率方向的进一步检验。</p></div><p>华尔街刚刚经历了数月来最惨烈的一段行情。科技股领跌,债券收益率飙升,油价剧烈波动——多重压力叠加,令投资者陷入深度焦虑:市场最坏的时刻是否已经过去?</p><p><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/17862495650757040516693.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">7月,<a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/.IXIC-US">纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)</a>累跌3.2%,创下今年3月以来最差单月表现;<a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/.SPX-US">标普500指数 (.SPX.US)</a>小幅下跌0.1%,仅<a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/.DJI-US">道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)</a>录得0.3%的微幅月度涨幅。</p><p>与此同时,月末两天的技术性反弹虽带来短暂喘息,但高盛顶级衍生品交易员Brian Garrett警告称,<span style="font-weight:bold;">上周的买盘更多是空头回补的"总量压缩"(gross down),而非真正的多头建仓</span>——这一关键区别意味着市场的企稳基础仍不牢固。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-0-61c77f4992a54205ee4eafaa69f99a19.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A600%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-0-61c77f4992a54205ee4eafaa69f99a19.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A600%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-0-61c77f4992a54205ee4eafaa69f99a19.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A600%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260803/0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-0-61c77f4992a54205ee4eafaa69f99a19.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x600" style="width:1024px;height:600px;aspect-ratio:1024/600;max-height:386.72px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>通胀回归、利率前景不明以及AI资本支出的可持续性疑虑,构成压制科技股的三重枷锁。Garrett明确指出,本周非农就业数据与利率走势,将成为检验此前反弹究竟是真实需求回归,还是不过一次仓位清洗的关键试金石。</p><h2>通胀重返市场核心叙事</h2><p>Ritholtz Wealth Management首席市场策略师Callie Cox认为,<span style="font-weight:bold;">投资者必须为更多市场波动做好准备——通胀已重新成为驱动大盘的主导力量。</span></p><p>"我并不是在说(下跌)一定会发生,但当前环境足够复杂,我们面临太多高位指标,一旦市场转而向上,复苏之路恐怕也不会平坦,"Cox对MarketWatch表示,"现在通胀是股票投资组合面临的最大风险,而与此同时,经济增长在年末之前也缺乏韧性。"</p><p>近期数据显示,至少在6月,通胀已出现降温迹象,最新消费者价格指数(CPI)与个人消费支出(PCE)数据均有所回落。但7月油价的再度上扬,令这一进展面临逆转风险。Cox指出,当前通胀的驱动因素与2022年那场由供应链中断和大规模财政刺激引发的价格危机有本质不同,但在长达近四年的牛市强劲上涨之后,利率不确定性与通胀压力已高到足以"持续扰动"股价。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-1-de757c07b6156668536851337b185048.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A596%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-1-de757c07b6156668536851337b185048.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A596%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-1-de757c07b6156668536851337b185048.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A596%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260803/0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-1-de757c07b6156668536851337b185048.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x596" style="width:1024px;height:596px;aspect-ratio:1024/596;max-height:384.14px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><h2>AI需求成本压力向科技股传导</h2><p>通胀隐患不仅来自能源价格,AI投资热潮本身也在制造新的成本压力。GQG Partners投资组合经理Brian Kersmanc指出,数据中心和AI基础设施大量消耗的内存芯片等关键输入品价格持续上涨,企业最终可能将这部分成本转嫁给客户,从而进一步推升通胀。</p><p>"通胀在很大程度上是情绪驱动的,"Kersmanc说:</p><blockquote><p>"如果有人相信通胀会来,他们就会按照这种预期消费和行动。所以通胀持续的时间越长,它就越容易自我强化。"</p></blockquote><p>对于估值极度偏高的利率敏感型板块——尤其是芯片股——而言,这一逻辑尤为危险。此类公司的预期营收和利润大量来自遥远的未来,当折现率因高利率而抬升时,这些未来现金流的现值便会大幅缩水。</p><p>不过,Kersmanc也指出了一个反向的正面效应:<span style="font-weight:bold;">高利率不仅压缩估值,也会抑制企业资本支出的意愿和能力。</span>"从这个角度看,通胀对超大规模云计算商而言或许反而更有利,因为市场目前最担心的,恰恰是它们过于激进的资本开支,"他说。</p><p>高盛方面的数据印证了这一分化逻辑:上周大市值科技股财报季显示出极为悬殊的市场反应——苹果单日市值蒸发约500亿美元,Meta跌近8%;而亚马逊与微软则双双大涨逾15%,微软更创下有史以来单日市值增加最高纪录(约5500亿美元)。</p><h2>大盘表面平静之下暗流涌动</h2><p>7月整体市场的低迷表现,掩盖了内部深刻的结构性轮动。</p><p>据FactSet数据,剔除市值权重影响的标普500等权重指数7月实际上涨了1.3%,而市值加权的标普500指数同期下跌0.1%。标普500的11个板块中,有7个在7月录得正收益,仅信息技术、工业、材料和公用事业四个板块收跌。</p><p>Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席执行官兼首席投资官Jay Hatfield将这种现象归因于地缘政治阴云的持续笼罩:"战争的压顶之势下,市场能做的只有轮动。"他同时警告,对冲基金去杠杆的过程可能尚未完全结束,由此引发的抛售仍将制造持续的波动。</p><p>高盛数据对此提供了进一步佐证:上周科技股多头抛售曾在周二达到高盛有记录以来三日最大规模,随后在周五出现重新建仓迹象——同一周内从历史性的卖出到初步复苏,足以说明当前行情的极端难度。</p><h2>反弹真实性存疑,关键门槛待突破</h2><p>即便上周末市场出现明显反弹,高盛的Brian Garrett也明确建议保持审慎。<span style="font-weight:bold;">他指出,上周的净买入规模为2020年11月以来最大,但驱动力主要来自空头回补,而非多头主动加仓——两者在衍生品市场的比例约为2:1。</span>这意味着,这一轮反弹更像是仓位出清之后的技术性修复,而非新一轮买盘驱动的趋势性行情。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-2-2a2dbfe4c2cfd0b8d9dceef5750efdfa.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-2-2a2dbfe4c2cfd0b8d9dceef5750efdfa.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260803%2F0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-2-2a2dbfe4c2cfd0b8d9dceef5750efdfa.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260803/0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-2-2a2dbfe4c2cfd0b8d9dceef5750efdfa.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x647" style="width:1024px;height:647px;aspect-ratio:1024/647;max-height:417.01px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260803/0-7c287936da3c3b1c4a2da0cbe88160c6-2-2a2dbfe4c2cfd0b8d9dceef5750efdfa.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>在市场结构层面,标普500指数此前连续六个交易日收于50日均线以下;CTA策略在美国市场的趋势信号仍略偏负面,关键支撑位分别为7445点和7215点。与此同时,全球杠杆ETF的资产规模自6月以来已骤降约600亿美元(降幅约28%),实际净敞口更大幅缩水约1700亿美元——这一庞大的强制去杠杆压力仍是市场结构的潜在隐患。</p><p>Garrett目前倾向于在系统性去杠杆周期趋于尾声的假设下布局:通过做多波动率下行、买入标普500三个月期上涨期权等策略,押注市场"缓慢爬升"的情景。但他同时强调,本周非农就业数据以及利率和企业盈利能否"验证"上周五的反弹,将是这一判断成立与否的真正考验。</p><p class="ftEditor">编辑/melody</p></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/77001993/is-the-worst-of-the-ai-bull-market-behind-us</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:29:42 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
<category>聚焦AI动向</category>
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<title>Anthropic Vs OpenAI,誰可笑到最後?</title>
<description><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/news-thumbnail/20260803/public/17857292345642560121130-17857292345636730969742.jpeg" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"><p>截至2026年7月,Anthropic在估值、营收增速和盈利能力三项关键指标上全面反超OpenAI,而OpenAI则坐拥消费端流量霸主地位(见下图)和广泛品牌认知。根了解,两家公司已递交IPO申请,Anthropic可能最快10月上市,OpenAI倾向推迟至2027年。</p></description>
<link>https://q.futunn.com/feed/117029453496724?futusource=news_topic_page</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 03:29:00 GMT</pubDate>
<author>专栏</author>
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<title>AI独角兽IPO盛宴按下暂停键!OpenAI据称推迟上市至2027年,SpaceX暴跌成最刺眼警示</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>报道称,SpaceX首秀不顺后,OpenAI考虑将IPO推迟至2027年。</p></div><p>“史上最大IPO”的狂欢仅持续了不到两周, <a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/SPCX-US">SpaceX (SPCX.US)</a> 从225美元巅峰坠至108美元的暴跌,正在整个AI资本市场引发一场深刻的信心海啸。据多位知情人士透露,ChatGPT开发商OpenAI已从最初“最快今年秋季上市”的雄心大幅后退,目前明确倾向于将IPO时间表推迟至2027年。这场推迟的背后,是CEO萨姆·奥特曼对万亿美元估值底线的坚持与残酷市场现实之间的正面碰撞。</p><h2>SpaceX的“前车之鉴”:225美元的狂欢与108美元的清醒</h2><p>6月12日,SpaceX以135美元的发行价登陆纳斯达克,上市首日市值即突破1.77万亿美元,募资规模创下美股有史以来最大IPO纪录。散户认购超1000亿美元,市场一度将其视为AI与太空经济双重叙事的完美范本。</p><p><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/17862495651208186605268.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">然而,这场狂欢仅维持了不到两周。6月23日,SpaceX单日重挫约16%。7月15日,股价首次跌破135美元发行价。截至7月28日收盘,SpaceX股价报116.41美元,较历史高点225.64美元累计跌幅高达48.4%,接近“腰斩”;7月31日(周五)收盘进一步跌至108美元,市值较高点累计蒸发超过1.2万亿美元。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260801%2Fpublic%2F17855514830909878278097-17855514830898178030366.png%22%2C%22width%22%3A1480%2C%22height%22%3A1035%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260801%2Fpublic%2F17855514830909878278097-17855514830898178030366.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1480%2C%22height%22%3A1035%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260801%2Fpublic%2F17855514830909878278097-17855514830898178030366.png%2Fthumb%22%2C%22width%22%3A1480%2C%22height%22%3A1035%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260801/public/17855514830909878278097-17855514830898178030366.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1480x1035" style="width: 1480px; height: 1035px; aspect-ratio: 1480 / 1035; max-height: 461.55px; display: none;" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>这一暴跌对OpenAI的IPO计划构成了直接的心理威慑。<span style="font-weight:bold;">为OpenAI提供IPO建议的银行家们明确警告称,近期科技股的剧烈波动以及SpaceX上市后股价的大幅回落,可能严重削弱散户投资者对OpenAI发行股票的热情。一位知情人士透露,过去一周OpenAI的顾问在与公司沟通时直言,散户投资者对其股票可能缺乏热情。</span></p><p>富达证券在近期的一份报告中写道,OpenAI的锚定估值 “更靠近7000亿至8000亿美元,而不是1万亿美元” 。</p><h2>万亿美元的执念:奥特曼的“红线”与顾问的两难</h2><p>OpenAI的估值困境是推迟决策的核心矛盾。2026年3月,OpenAI完成1220亿美元融资,投后估值达8520亿美元,已是全球估值最高的未上市科技企业。然而,这一成绩远未达到奥特曼的心理预期。据知情人士透露,奥特曼一直在敦促包括银行家和律师在内的顾问团队,设法将公司IPO估值推高至1万亿美元。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">顾问团队向奥特曼提出了两种方案:一是将IPO延后至2027年,等待市场环境改善,同时让公司财务表现更接近万亿美元估值目标;二是在2026年底前上市,但接受较低的估值。据一位与奥特曼接触过的人士透露,当顾问们提出这一选择时,奥特曼称任何将估值削减到万亿美元以下的方案都是“行不通的”。</span></p><p>与此同时,OpenAI的财务状况也在考验着投资者的耐心。该公司去年净亏损高达385亿美元,主要源于算力基础设施建设、研发投入以及企业架构调整等方面的巨额支出。据The Information报道,2026年第一季度OpenAI烧掉了37亿美元现金,超过同期57亿美元营收的一半。公司预计到2030年将在计算和硬件方面投入6000亿美元。</p><h2>Anthropic“抢跑”,9650亿估值的无声挑衅</h2><p>在OpenAI犹豫不决的同时,其最大竞争对手Anthropic正在全速冲向公开市场。今年5月底,Anthropic完成650亿美元H轮融资,投后估值攀升至9650亿美元,已超过OpenAI的8520亿美元估值。6月1日,Anthropic率先向SEC秘密提交IPO申请。7月15日,媒体报道称Anthropic正全速推进IPO计划,承销银行已开始安排管理层与潜在投资者会面,最快有望于今年10月完成上市。Anthropic已选定摩根士丹利、高盛和摩根大通担任主承销商。</p><p>据知情人士透露,近几个月来,OpenAI的一些大投资者已私下对该公司相对于其增长的现金消耗速度过快表示担忧,而其他投资者则通过向Anthropic投入资金来对冲他们对OpenAI的押注。Anthropic正在加速秋季IPO的计划,并已开始与潜在投资者会面,强调其相对于ChatGPT制造商所保持的领先优势。而最初希望抢在Anthropic之前上市的OpenAI,现在可能不得不等到明年。</p><h2>市场背景:AI板块集体降温,IPO窗口正在收窄</h2><p>OpenAI的推迟并非孤例。<span style="font-weight:bold;">分析指出,原定于2026年下半年启动的大模型企业IPO,可能因市场风险偏好下降及流动性环境的不确定性,推迟至2027年上半年。IPO时间的调整意味着该公司备受瞩目的上市计划将较此前市场预期的今年秋季大幅延后。</span></p><p>OpenAI于6月8日向SEC秘密提交了S-1文件。公司在当时的声明中表示:“我们尚未决定上市时间,可能还需要时日,因为有些事情以私营公司身份推进可能更容易。提交IPO文件可以让我们在上市更符合公司利益的时候,拥有更快进入公开市场的选项。”</p><p>对2027年时间表最直观的解读是:OpenAI有能力等待。通过推迟,公司可以继续扩大使用量、完善定价,并在进入公开市场接受季度纪律约束之前,寻求消费者产品、企业工具和基础设施合作伙伴之间更稳定的业务组合。据最新报道,OpenAI 7月的年化经常性收入已超越整个第二季度总额。</p><p class="ftEditor">编辑/lambor</p></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76964873/the-ipo-bonanza-for-ai-unicorns-hits-pause-openai-reportedly</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2026 02:32:22 GMT</pubDate>
<author>智通财经</author>
<category>聚焦AI动向</category>
<category>SPCX</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>报道:OpenAI向美国监管机构演示新一代"Astra"AI模型</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>据The Information报道,OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman本周亲赴华盛顿,向监管机构预演了一款名为"Astra"的全新AI模型系列。模型系列的核心能力在于支持多个AI智能体协同工作,并能够在较长时间跨度内持续执行复杂任务。</p></div><p>OpenAI正在加快推进其下一代人工智能产品布局。</p><p>7月31日,据The Information报道,<span style="font-weight:bold;">OpenAI本周在美国华盛顿向监管机构预演了一款名为"Astra"的全新AI模型系列,标志着该公司在多智能体协作技术方向上迈出重要一步。</span></p><p><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/17862495652834073780965.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">据报道,OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman本周亲赴华盛顿,向当地监管机构现场演示了Astra模型。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Astra模型系列的核心能力在于支持多个AI智能体协同工作,并能够在较长时间跨度内持续执行复杂任务。</span></p><p>多智能体协作被业界视为推动AI从"回答问题"走向"自主完成任务"的关键路径,也是各大AI厂商当前竞争的核心赛道之一。</p><p>OpenAI方面表示,该模型旨在解决传统单一智能体难以应对的高难度问题,有望进一步拓展AI在企业级应用场景中的边界。</p><h2>高管亲赴华盛顿,主动接触监管层</h2><p>Sam Altman亲自出席此次演示,体现了OpenAI在监管沟通策略上的主动姿态。</p><p>在AI监管政策讨论日趋活跃的背景下,此次华盛顿之行被视为OpenAI与政策制定者建立对话渠道的重要举措。</p><p>选择在产品公开发布前向监管机构预演新模型,也反映出OpenAI正将合规与政策沟通纳入产品推进流程的常态化安排。</p><p>对于投资者而言,这一动向有助于降低Astra后续商业化过程中面临潜在监管阻力的不确定性。</p><p class="ftEditor">编辑/stephen</p></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76960836/report-openai-demonstrates-its-next-generation-astra-ai-model-to</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 22:56:37 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
<category>聚焦AI动向</category>
<category>GOOG</category>
<category>MSFT</category>
<category>NVDA</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>AI安全警报!Anthropic、OpenAI接连“越狱”,专家警告国家安全风险</title>
<description></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76960526/ai-security-alert-anthropic-and-openai-successively-jailbroken-experts-warn</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.futunn.com/post/76960526/ai-security-alert-anthropic-and-openai-successively-jailbroken-experts-warn</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 22:54:51 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>头部AI再失控!Anthropic旗下Claude AI在测试中真实入侵三家公司系统</title>
<description></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76950533/leading-ai-goes-rogue-again-anthropic-s-claude-ai-actually</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.futunn.com/post/76950533/leading-ai-goes-rogue-again-anthropic-s-claude-ai-actually</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:02:55 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>MiniMax发布开源全模态模型H3:视频编辑能力登顶全球第一,定价砍至同行三分之一</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>MiniMax一招"价格核弹"搅动AI视频赛道——旗下首款开源多模态模型H3以0.8元/秒的定价,仅为业内旗舰的三分之一,同时视频编辑能力全球排名第一。消息一出,股价单日暴涨14%。在参数军备竞赛之外,MiniMax正以极致性价比+开源双轮驱动,杀出一条差异化突围之路。</p></div><p style="text-align:left;">在国产AI赛道从参数竞赛转向成本与生态较量的关键节点, <a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/00100-HK">MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)</a> 以一款定价仅为同行三分之一的视频生成模型,向市场投下了一枚"价格核弹",同时也向Sora等全球竞品发起正面挑战。</p><p style="text-align:left;">7月31日,MiniMax正式发布首款开源多模态生成模型H3。该模型支持2K分辨率直出与最长15秒音画内容生成,在ArtificialAnalysis视频编辑能力榜单中排名全球第一。更具冲击力的是其定价策略——视频生成价格降至0.8元/秒,仅为业内同类旗舰模型的三分之一。MiniMax官方写道:</p><blockquote><p style="text-align:left;"><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/1786249565796165728046.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">这是一款通用的全模态生成模型,支持对文本、图像、视频、声音组成的多模态上下文的统一理解能力、能够输出具备原生双声道的音视频,最高可支持 15s 2K 分辨率。</p></blockquote><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-0-250555f7d5360c1b9df2f68409d59ca8.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A731%2C%22height%22%3A337%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-0-250555f7d5360c1b9df2f68409d59ca8.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A731%2C%22height%22%3A337%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-0-250555f7d5360c1b9df2f68409d59ca8.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A731%2C%22height%22%3A337%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-0-250555f7d5360c1b9df2f68409d59ca8.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="731x337" style="width:731px;height:337px;aspect-ratio:731/337;max-height:304.27px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p style="text-align:left;">受此消息提振,MiniMax股价单日大涨超13%,一举扭转了前期因股份解禁与产品降价带来的下跌趋势,投资者对H3以极致成本控制实现商业突围抱有较高期待。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260731%2Fpublic%2F17854795794769472039120-17854795794759429911698.png%22%2C%22width%22%3A2013%2C%22height%22%3A1399%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260731%2Fpublic%2F17854795794769472039120-17854795794759429911698.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A2013%2C%22height%22%3A1399%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.futunn.com%2Fnews-editor-imgs%2F20260731%2Fpublic%2F17854795794769472039120-17854795794759429911698.png%2Fthumb%22%2C%22width%22%3A2013%2C%22height%22%3A1399%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260731/public/17854795794769472039120-17854795794759429911698.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="2013x1399" style="width:2013px;height:1399px;aspect-ratio:2013/1399;max-height:458.69px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p style="text-align:left;">在行业头部玩家纷纷收紧供给的背景下,MiniMax以“极致性价比+开源”为切入口,试图在AI视频生成赛道走出一条与参数内卷截然不同的差异化路径。</p><h2>多模态统一架构,视频编辑排名全球第一</h2><p>H3的核心定位是通用全模态生成模型,其技术架构实现了对文本、图像、视频、声音组成的多模态上下文的统一理解,并可输出具备原生双声道的音视频内容,最高支持15秒、2K分辨率的视频生成。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">在能力表现上,MiniMax重点强调H3在指令遵循、文字与品牌信息呈现,以及V2V Motion Transfer(视频到视频动作迁移)等维度的表现。V2V Motion Transfer是指将源视频的动作特征精准迁移至目标视频的技术能力,有助于实现可控的多模态内容编辑。</span>在Artificial Analysis视频模型榜单中,H3在视频编辑能力项排名全球第一。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-2-fb1c86000f95fc6276964f76dcc9129f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A671%2C%22height%22%3A361%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-2-fb1c86000f95fc6276964f76dcc9129f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A671%2C%22height%22%3A361%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-2-fb1c86000f95fc6276964f76dcc9129f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A671%2C%22height%22%3A361%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-2-fb1c86000f95fc6276964f76dcc9129f.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="671x361" style="width:671px;height:361px;aspect-ratio:671/361;max-height:355.08px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-2-fb1c86000f95fc6276964f76dcc9129f.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-3-2fc576f7f6e4fed53fd2aa959f5aeedd.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A696%2C%22height%22%3A459%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-3-2fc576f7f6e4fed53fd2aa959f5aeedd.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A696%2C%22height%22%3A459%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-3-2fc576f7f6e4fed53fd2aa959f5aeedd.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A696%2C%22height%22%3A459%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-3-2fc576f7f6e4fed53fd2aa959f5aeedd.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="696x459" style="width:696px;height:459px;aspect-ratio:696/459;max-height:435.26px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-3-2fc576f7f6e4fed53fd2aa959f5aeedd.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-4-dd3974b4a9557353b73516ab5e193118.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A697%2C%22height%22%3A453%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-4-dd3974b4a9557353b73516ab5e193118.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A697%2C%22height%22%3A453%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-4-dd3974b4a9557353b73516ab5e193118.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A697%2C%22height%22%3A453%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-4-dd3974b4a9557353b73516ab5e193118.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="697x453" style="width:697px;height:453px;aspect-ratio:697/453;max-height:428.95px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-4-dd3974b4a9557353b73516ab5e193118.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-5-dcb5e94a4d2c0aa834e392b788650b5e.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A688%2C%22height%22%3A564%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-5-dcb5e94a4d2c0aa834e392b788650b5e.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A688%2C%22height%22%3A564%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-5-dcb5e94a4d2c0aa834e392b788650b5e.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A688%2C%22height%22%3A564%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-5-dcb5e94a4d2c0aa834e392b788650b5e.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="688x564" style="width:688px;height:564px;aspect-ratio:688/564;max-height:541.05px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-5-dcb5e94a4d2c0aa834e392b788650b5e.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>MiniMax方面表示,H3具备商用级的多场景内容生成能力,广泛适用于广告、品牌、电商、产品设计、UI/UX及游戏等商业场景,定位于降低企业和开发者进行高质量视频内容创作的门槛。</p><h2 style="text-align:left;">价格刺穿行业底线,高压缩Tokenizer驱动价格降至行业1/3</h2><p>H3视频生成定价0.8元/秒,是此次发布的另一重要看点。H3其2K分辨率视频生成定价为0.8元/秒,仅为业内同类旗舰模型的三分之一。</p><p style="text-align:left;">这一成本优势源于系统级优化:<span style="font-weight:bold;">MiniMax通过高压缩Tokenizer降低视频生成所需的Token数量,同时在异构训练、负载均衡和GPU利用效率等方面进行了针对性调优,在保障模型效果的同时大幅压降训练与推理成本。</span></p><p style="text-align:left;">这一成本结构若能在规模化应用中得以验证,将有助于H3在商业化落地上形成差异化竞争优势。MiniMax方面表示,H3可广泛适用于广告、电商、产品设计及游戏等对成本敏感的商业场景,为企业级视频内容创作提供了低成本、高效率的解决方案。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-6-82e08168399c728c25966b43178b2b7f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A722%2C%22height%22%3A410%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-6-82e08168399c728c25966b43178b2b7f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A722%2C%22height%22%3A410%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-6-82e08168399c728c25966b43178b2b7f.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A722%2C%22height%22%3A410%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-6-82e08168399c728c25966b43178b2b7f.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="722x410" style="width:722px;height:410px;aspect-ratio:722/410;max-height:374.79px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-6-82e08168399c728c25966b43178b2b7f.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p style="text-align:center;">H3视频生成画面</p><h2>开源策略:面向企业本地部署,推动产业生态开放</h2><p>开源是H3此次发布的战略重心之一。<span style="font-weight:bold;">MiniMax表示,计划在未来几天内,在符合相关法律法规的前提下开放模型权重,企业届时可在本地灵活部署,结合自身数据和业务进行优化,以更好地满足安全合规要求。</span></p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-7-4c278c3b38d1f2587fb37859415f924c.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A757%2C%22height%22%3A135%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-7-4c278c3b38d1f2587fb37859415f924c.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A757%2C%22height%22%3A135%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-7-4c278c3b38d1f2587fb37859415f924c.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A757%2C%22height%22%3A135%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-7-4c278c3b38d1f2587fb37859415f924c.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="757x135" style="width:757px;height:135px;aspect-ratio:757/135;max-height:117.70px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-00997864bc723f5266ab06cc58e3c079-7-4c278c3b38d1f2587fb37859415f924c.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>“芯片厂商和开发者也能共同参与适配和优化,降低使用成本,扩大应用范围。”MiniMax相关负责人表示,“我们会持续推动优秀的文本、多模态模型从过往的封闭服务,走向更加开放、可协作的产业生态。”</p><p>开源路线在国产大模型竞争中正成为越来越重要的筹码。月之暗面于7月16日发布参数量达2.8万亿的Kimi K3,成为全球参数规模最大的开源模型,发布48小时内用户请求量逼近集群承载极限,并于7月19日宣布暂停C端新用户订阅,将算力优先保障已付费用户。</p><h2 style="text-align:left;">避开参数内卷:差异化路径能否持续?</h2><p style="text-align:left;">资本市场的剧烈反应印证了投资者对H3商业化前景的认可。股价单日涨超14%,成功扭转了前期因股份解禁与产品降价引发的下跌趋势。</p><p style="text-align:left;">从竞争格局看,MiniMax选择了一条与参数规模内卷截然不同的路径。在行业头部玩家因算力瓶颈被迫收缩供给、用户请求量逼近集群承载极限的当下,MiniMax凭借成本控制与开源策略,试图在商业落地层面建立护城河,而非单纯比拼模型参数。</p><p style="text-align:left;">后续市场将密切关注H3正式开源后的社区适配进度、商业订单落地节奏,以及这一"以价换量"策略能否帮助MiniMax重回AI赛道"C位"。</p><p class="ftEditor">编辑/KOKO</p></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76911769/minimax-has-launched-its-open-source-fully-multimodal-model-h3</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.futunn.com/post/76911769/minimax-has-launched-its-open-source-fully-multimodal-model-h3</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:33:41 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
<category>聚焦AI动向</category>
<category>MINIMAX-W</category>
<category>MMXGY</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>本轮牛市“最大神话”落幕!短短数周,“AI股神”被击溃,Citatdel出手收购全部仓位</title>
<description><div class="ftAbstract"><p>“AI先知”Aschenbrenner,凭一篇AI预言长文在华尔街募资450亿美元,今年上半年净回报439%。但7月AI股大跌,其重仓的SK海力士、闪迪等多头持仓暴跌,同时做空的软件股反向上涨,叠加约4倍杠杆,触发追保。36小时内,Citadel以折扣价接盘其约160亿美元的全部公开持仓。</p></div><p style="text-align:left;">一个24岁的年轻人,凭一篇预言AI改变世界的长文,在华尔街募到450亿美元,今年上半年爆赚439%。然而,在近期AI板块大跌的这一个月里,他把两年积累的神话,一口气输了个精光。</p><p>7月30日,华尔街流出一条消息:</p><p><img class="boundary-pic" loading="lazy" src="https://record.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20260809/public/17862495659544721429043.png?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">一家只有8名员工的对冲基金,<span style="font-weight:bold;">在过去36小时内</span>,把全部公开市场持仓——约160亿美元的股票——通过一笔交易,整包卖给了对手盘。</p><p>买家是Citadel,全球最大的对冲基金之一,创始人Ken Griffin,管理规模710亿美元。</p><p>这家被迫割肉的基金叫Situational Awareness(简称SA),创始人Leopold Aschenbrenner,25岁。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-0-aba6047197fd36ec037b421e6cd85073.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A687%2C%22height%22%3A131%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-0-aba6047197fd36ec037b421e6cd85073.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A687%2C%22height%22%3A131%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-0-aba6047197fd36ec037b421e6cd85073.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A687%2C%22height%22%3A131%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-0-aba6047197fd36ec037b421e6cd85073.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="687x131" style="width:687px;height:131px;aspect-ratio:687/131;max-height:125.85px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>值得一提的是,Aschenbrenner的未婚妻Avital Balwit,正是Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei的幕僚长。这场AI崩盘和他的割肉清盘,恰好发生在他们婚礼的前一周末。</p><p>而就在几周前,<span style="font-weight:bold;">他还是华尔街和硅谷最被追捧的名字。</span></p><h2 style="text-align:left;">硅谷追捧的“AI先知”、“AI股神”</h2><p style="text-align:left;">Leopold Aschenbrenner,德国人,24岁。</p><p style="text-align:left;">15岁进哥伦比亚大学,19岁以全班第一毕业。毕业后加入OpenAI的"超级对齐"团队,专门研究如何让超级智能符合人类价值观。2024年,OpenAI以"不当泄露内部信息"为由将他开除。他本人否认,称自己只是把一份基本不涉密的规划文件发给外部研究者征求意见,真正的导火索是他内部写了一份批评OpenAI安全措施的备忘录。</p><p style="text-align:left;">被开除后,他做了一件很多人没想到的事——写了一篇165页的长文,题目就叫《态势感知》(Situational Awareness)。</p><p style="text-align:left;">文章的核心论断是:<span style="font-weight:bold;">AI发展速度远超外界想象,到2027年,AI将能自主进行AI研究,人类将面对真正的超级智能。而这一切,需要芯片、内存、数据中心、电力基础设施的爆炸式扩张。</span></p><p style="text-align:left;">这篇文章在硅谷引发轰动。有人称它是"十年来最重要的文章"。播客主持人Tim Ferriss称他为<span style="font-weight:bold;">"AI界的诺查丹玛斯"</span>。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-1-9c64d58100e4f5bfe170b22aa6aedf87.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A576%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-1-9c64d58100e4f5bfe170b22aa6aedf87.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A576%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-1-9c64d58100e4f5bfe170b22aa6aedf87.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A576%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-1-9c64d58100e4f5bfe170b22aa6aedf87.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x576" style="width:1024px;height:576px;aspect-ratio:1024/576;max-height:371.25px" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>2024年,他拿着约2.25亿美元种子资金,创立了同名基金SA。投资人包括Stripe联合创始人Patrick和John Collison、前GitHub CEO Nat Friedman,以及Jane Street等机构。</p><p>没有任何从业经验,他直接下场管理数十亿美元。基金规模从此迅速膨胀,2026年7月初,峰值接近450亿美元。</p><p style="text-align:left;">整个基金只有8名员工,其中4名投资专业人士。</p><h2>重仓AI基础设施,杠杆放大四倍</h2><p>SA的投资逻辑非常直接:既然AI需要大量算力和基础设施,就重仓那些提供算力和基础设施的公司。</p><p>多头方向: <a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/SKHY-US">SK海力士 (SKHY.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">(韩国半导体/内存)、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/NBIS-US">NEBIUS (NBIS.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">(AI云平台)、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/SNDK-US">闪迪 (SNDK.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">(存储芯片)、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/MU-US">美光科技 (MU.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">(内存芯片)、 </span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/CRWV-US">CoreWeave (CRWV.US)</a> <span style="font-weight:bold;">(AI云计算)、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/BE-US">Bloom Energy (BE.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">(能源)。</span></p><p>空头方向:做空<a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/ADBE-US">Adobe (ADBE.US)</a>等传统软件公司——逻辑是AI会颠覆它们。</p><p>同时,基金通过向银行借钱(即杠杆)放大收益,杠杆倍数约为4倍。</p><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-2-24326492700bb6e3d8f91fb9dbaee2f3.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A512%2C%22height%22%3A352%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-2-24326492700bb6e3d8f91fb9dbaee2f3.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A512%2C%22height%22%3A352%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-2-24326492700bb6e3d8f91fb9dbaee2f3.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A512%2C%22height%22%3A352%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-2-24326492700bb6e3d8f91fb9dbaee2f3.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="512x352" style="width:512px;height:352px;aspect-ratio:512/352;max-height:453.75px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-2-24326492700bb6e3d8f91fb9dbaee2f3.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>这个结构有个特点:银行持有实物股票,SA通过"总收益互换"(TRS)合成获取经济敞口和杠杆。好处是收益倍增,坏处是一旦股价下跌,银行会要求补充保证金(追保)。</p><p>2025年到2026年上半年,这套打法效果惊人。</p><p>截至2026年6月底,SA净回报率达到439%。基金规模从不到10亿美元起步,7月初最高膨胀至约450亿美元。</p><p>部分早期投资者今年回报率高达200%。</p><p>7月24日,Aschenbrenner还在给投资者的信里写道:"有时候我们会特别指出,现在是加仓的好时机——如果你一直在等的话。"信末附言,邀请投资者在8月1日追加资金。</p><h2>三周之内,两头挨打</h2><p>然而,好景不长。<span style="font-weight:bold;">7月,AI股开始下跌。</span></p><p>市场开始质疑:AI基础设施的高估值能否持续?大量资金从AI硬件股撤出。</p><p>SA的多头仓位首当其冲:</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/NBIS-US">NEBIUS (NBIS.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">从6月高点跌去约48%,市值蒸发约350亿美元</span></p></li><li><p><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/SNDK-US">闪迪 (SNDK.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">在一个多月内跌超56%</span></p></li><li><p><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/CRWV-US">CoreWeave (CRWV.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/MU-US">美光科技 (MU.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">、</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/SKHY-US">SK海力士 (SKHY.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">本月跌幅均超35%</span></p></li></ul><div class="pic-module" data-org="%7B%22name%22%3A%22nnq%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-3-b2010459407ea8ed1d1e0f4033220699.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-big="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-3-b2010459407ea8ed1d1e0f4033220699.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-thumb="%7B%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fnewsfile.futunn.com%2Fpublic%2FNN-PersistNewsContentImage%2F7781%2F20260731%2F0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-3-b2010459407ea8ed1d1e0f4033220699.png%2Fbig%22%2C%22width%22%3A1024%2C%22height%22%3A647%7D" data-href="" data-description="" data-stock-ids=""><img data-src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-3-b2010459407ea8ed1d1e0f4033220699.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" alt="" ftsrcwh="1024x647" style="width:1024px;height:647px;aspect-ratio:1024/647;max-height:417.01px" src="https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20260731/0-6e6a9c2f364b42e389ff50c8e97b0b1f-3-b2010459407ea8ed1d1e0f4033220699.png/big?imageMogr2/quality/minsize/1/ignore-error/1/format/webp" referrerpolicy="no-referrer"></div><p>与此同时,<span style="font-weight:bold;">SA做空的软件股(如</span><a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/ADBE-US">Adobe (ADBE.US)</a><span style="font-weight:bold;">)却反向上涨,空头仓位也在亏损。</span></p><p>多空两腿同时亏损,4倍杠杆把损失放大。银行开始发出追保通知。</p><p>这就是华尔街说的"追加保证金":你借了钱买股票,股票跌了,银行要求你补交保证金,否则强制平仓。这和A股的融资爆仓是同一个逻辑。</p><p>SA的主经纪商包括美国银行、高盛、摩根大通,三家同时介入,协助基金应对追保或有序减仓。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">值得一提的是,Aschenbrenner的未婚妻Avital Balwit,正是Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei的幕僚长。这场崩盘,恰好发生在他们婚礼的前一周末。</span></p><h2>36小时,一夜竞价</h2><p>危机在36小时内迅速演变。</p><p>7月29日深夜,<span style="font-weight:bold;">SA向多个潜在买家发出紧急求助,寻求出售超过100亿美元的股票以稳住局面。</span>这一消息被英国《金融时报》、彭博等媒体广泛报道。</p><p>竞标者包括:Millennium Management(全球顶级多策略对冲基金)、Jane Street(SA的投资人之一)。</p><p>Millennium出价,但认为这批仓位风险过高,不愿出高价。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">最终,Citadel胜出。</span></p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">7月30日清晨,交易完成。</span>Citadel以大幅折价接盘SA约160亿美元的全部公开股票持仓——包括多头和空头。这是华尔街历史上规模最大的紧急股票交易之一。</p><p>交易完成的消息传出后,<a href="https://www.futunn.com/stock/.NDX-US">纳斯达克100指数 (.NDX.US)</a>当天大涨逾3%——市场松了口气:SA不需要再往市场里砸盘了。</p><p>Citadel做这种事不是第一次。历史上,它曾趁危机低价接盘安然(Enron)等公司的资产。用Ken Griffin自己的话说,Citadel能持续成功的原因之一是:"经验。是用亏损和痛苦换来的智慧。我的领导团队,我们一起经历了很多市场最艰难的时刻,学到了很多惨痛的教训。但这让我们在动荡和危机时期成为更有效的投资者。"</p><p>Citadel成立于1990年。SA成立于2024年。</p><h2>还剩什么</h2><p>交易完成后,SA的管理规模从峰值450亿美元骤降至约100亿美元,降幅超过一半。</p><p>但Aschenbrenner并没有被彻底清空。</p><p><span style="font-weight:bold;">SA保留了全部私募仓位,约100亿美元,其中最重要的一块是Anthropic的股权,估值约50亿美元。SA将以私募投资机构的形式继续运营。</span></p><p>这批私募资产能不能兑现,取决于Anthropic等公司未来上市时的估值。</p><p>这是一个悬而未决的问题。</p><p>顺带一提:Aschenbrenner的未婚妻Avital Balwit,是Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei的首席幕僚长。SA此前曾被传要出售Anthropic股权,但SA发言人否认了这一说法。</p><h2 style="text-align:left;">他错在哪里</h2><p>这件事最值得思考的问题是:Aschenbrenner对AI的判断是否错了?</p><p>不一定。</p><p>AI基础设施的长期需求逻辑,目前仍有大量机构认同。</p><p>问题出在仓位结构上。</p><p>X上有人引用了Ken Griffin此前对基金经理失败原因的描述:"<span style="font-weight:bold;">你的投资组合高度集中,持仓巨大,却无法清晰说明你持有这些仓位的竞争优势在哪里。</span>"</p><p>SA的问题正是如此:重仓单一主题(AI基础设施),同时开4倍杠杆,多空两腿押注同一个叙事的两面。一旦市场风向转变,没有任何缓冲。</p><p>这套结构在上涨时能创造439%的回报,在下跌时同样能在数周内把整个公开仓位打爆。</p><p>正如有人总结的:"他对AI的判断没有错。他错在仓位的构建方式上。"</p><h2 style="text-align:left;">神话的另一面</h2><p style="text-align:left;">Aschenbrenner的故事,是这轮AI牛市最极致的样本之一。</p><p style="text-align:left;">一篇文章,一套叙事,八个人,450亿美元,439%的回报——然后三周内,被追保电话打垮。</p><p style="text-align:left;">这不是AI的终结,也不是Aschenbrenner的终结。</p><p style="text-align:left;">但它清楚地说明了一件事:<span style="font-weight:bold;">看对了方向,不等于能活到方向兑现的那一天。</span></p><p class="ftEditor">编辑/melody</p></description>
<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76891243/the-biggest-myth-of-this-bull-market-comes-to-an</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:50:00 GMT</pubDate>
<author>华尔街见闻</author>
<category>聚焦AI动向</category>
<category>SKHY</category>
<category>SNDK</category>
<category>MU</category>
<category>NBIS</category>
<category>CRWV</category>
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<link>https://news.futunn.com/post/76889427/price-cuts-as-steep-as-80-openai-slashes-prices-for</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:27:38 GMT</pubDate>
<author>财联社</author>
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TonyRL
requested changes
Aug 10, 2026
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Unnecessary playwright usage. This wafToken can be solved locally.
/**
* Solve wafToken
* pick a random integer number < 1e12 (and >= 10^max(Arr)) whose digits at 1-indexed positions `Arr[0]` and `Arr[1]` counted from the right both equal `Value`
* hash the JWT with a rolling h = (132*h + charCode) mod 2^25 seeded at the FNV-1a basis 0x811c9dc5, hex-encoded
* `${jwt}@${number}@${hash(jwt)}`
*/
const solveWafToken = (html: string) => {
const jwt = // extract it from html
const payload = Buffer.from(jwt.split('.', 2)[1], 'base64url').toString();
const { Arr: arr, Value: value } = JSON.parse(JSON.parse(payload).args);
let number;
do {
number = Math.floor(Math.random() * 1_000_000_000_000);
} while (number < 10 ** Math.max(...Arr) || Arr.some((position) => Math.floor((number / 10 ** (position - 1)) % 10) !== Value));
let hash = 0x81_1c_9d_c5;
for (const char of jwt) {
hash = (0x84 * hash + char.codePointAt(0)!) % 2 ** 25;
}
return `${jwt}@${number}@${hash.toString(16)}`;
};ofetch(link). If the HTML has wafToken=, solveWafToken(html) and ofetch again with { headers: { cookie: wafToken=result } }.
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Involved Issue / 该 PR 相关 Issue
N/A — bug fix for existing routes.
Example for the Proposed Route(s) / 路由地址示例
New RSS Route Checklist / 新 RSS 路由检查表
PuppeteerNote / 说明
Problem
Futu's WAF now returns an obfuscated JavaScript shell to requests without a browser fingerprint (e.g. plain
gotrequests). As a result, article bodies in the/futunn/mainand/futunn/topicfeeds have been empty — the pages fetched bygotcontain no.origin_contentelement, soitem.descriptionsilently falls back to the abstract (or nothing).Changes
lib/routes/futunn/utils.tswith:fetchArticleDetail(context, link): triesgotfirst; if the response lacks.origin_content(WAF shell), falls back to rendering the page with playwright (via@/utils/playwright), then re-extracts the body.extractArticleInfo(content): shared body/category extraction previously duplicated inmain.tsandtopic.ts./futunn/mainand/futunn/topicto use the shared helper and markrequirePuppeteer: true.Verification
tsc --noEmitpasses;oxlintandoxfmtclean onlib/routes/futunn/./futunn/main?limit=2): article bodies now come through fully (e.g. the CPI article renders ~780 chars of body text instead of empty<p></p>).Notes
gotis blocked, so deployments without a browser keep current behavior (empty body) rather than failing.