Forecast model

[Cynary]

We need a way to model forecasts.

[Maplenormandy]

Suggested forecast model, based off the weather model:

• During no storm state, there is no forecast
• During storm developing state, you are given an estimate of how long until the storm hits (i.e. 7-10 days), which gets more accurate closer to the time that the storm hits. There is also an estimate of the probability that the storm becomes a disaster. This probability starts at 0, then increases at a rate determined by the intensity of the storm. The player would get notifications when this probability hits certain values. For comparison, the UK Emergency Rainfall Alert triggers at 10% (advisory), 20% (early), and 40% (imminent) probability of rainfall exceeding a certain threshold.
• During the storm hitting state, you'd see the actual amount of rain that fell, and there's some sort of progress meter towards the storm becoming a disaster. The probability that the storm becomes a disaster also is directly shown.