feat(routing): add role reasoning-effort profiles and equal-budget ablation

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Buyer next action

Run python tests/test_reasoning_effort_profile.py. Keep live route/conduct defaults unchanged while production_default_change_allowed is false. Do not raise temperature to stand in for reasoning effort.

Why this PR

Issue #568: the control plane can name workflow roles but cannot yet assign a provider-neutral compute profile or prove a profile improves quality under a comparable budget. This first slice lands the catalog and the true-θ RMSE ablation without changing production defaults and without stacking onto the tools-honesty / KV-allowlist queue (#608 and successors).

What landed

• Versioned reasoning_effort_profile with fail-closed parse (unknown keys, NaN/inf, booleans-as-numbers).
• Role catalog for thinker / worker / verifier / synthesizer / planner / judge.
• Replayable snapshot_hash for later sync/stream/batch/route/conduct attach.
• Equal-budget ablation: single-model route baseline vs role-differentiated conduct, plus one-factor sweeps for effort, temperature, recursion depth, workflow steps, and access-list scope.
• Production default gate stays locked (robustness_passed is false in this slice).

Doctoring (APA 7th)

• Sakana AI. (2026). Sakana Fugu Technical Report.
• Xu, J., Sun, Q., Schwendeman, P., Nielsen, S., Cetin, E., & Tang, Y. (2025). Trinity: An evolved LLM coordinator (arXiv:2512.04695).
• Nielsen, S., Cetin, E., Schwendeman, P., Sun, Q., Xu, J., & Tang, Y. (2025). Learning to orchestrate agents in natural language with the Conductor (arXiv:2512.04388).

PDFs are cited, not vendored, where redistribution is unclear.

Out of scope (do not fold in)

• Tools-path honesty, SSE proxy, KV host allowlist, or gateway Bearer-token KV (feat(api): SSE-proxy tools and response_format on chat completions #606–feat(api): SSE-proxy /v1/responses with mock function_call events #628).
• Changing OrchestrationPolicy defaults.
• Live NVIDIA NIM calls (issue [Product Gap] Evidence-grade NVIDIA NIM model discovery and cost-quality benchmark #86).

Verify

python tests/test_reasoning_effort_profile.py
python tests/test_paper_contracts.py
python tests/test_conventions.py

  

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Stale comment

Buyer next action

Do not merge this draft. Review #650 (a1ab71e) instead: #650

Run python tests/test_reasoning_effort_profile.py on #650. Keep live route/conduct defaults unchanged while production_default_change_allowed is false.

Why #631 is not the landing vehicle

The catalog, opt-in snapshot on complete(), and the production-default lock are the right first slice. The ablation and persist path do not match the claims.

• estimate_theta_rmse ignores the θ values. RMSE is a rank formula repeated len(true_theta) times. A buyer running the advertised command gets a tautology, not θ̂ vs true θ.
• run(), stream_route(), and batch_route() drop reasoning_effort_snapshot. HTTP and persist use run(), so the hash is not on the live record.
• Parse/hash fail open on None, blank profile_version, fractional seed, extra roles, and empty catalogs.
• access_list_scope "role" vs "workflow" is the same call. The production-default gate raises on junk reports.
• parse_reasoning_effort_profile had no fuzz target.

Production OrchestrationPolicy defaults were not changed. Default constructor still omits the snapshot key. Do not fold this onto #608–#629.

#650 emits θ̂, computes RMSE(θ̂, θ), fail-closes parse/hash, persists the same snapshot on run/stream/batch, and adds a Hypothesis/Atheris seam. Independent review from seonghobae is requested there.

Next buyer gap after #650: apply the opt-in catalog to ModelClient request knobs (reasoning_effort, max_output_tokens) without changing OrchestrationPolicy defaults. Live NIM evidence stays issue #86.

  

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Buyer next action

Do not merge this PR. Review #677 (55ce1ac) instead: #677

Run python tests/test_reasoning_effort_profile.py on #677. Keep live route/conduct defaults unchanged while production_default_change_allowed is false.

Why #631 is not the landing vehicle

The catalog, opt-in snapshot on complete(), and the production-default lock are the right first slice. The ablation and persist path do not match the claims.

• estimate_theta_rmse ignores the θ values. RMSE is a rank formula repeated len(true_theta) times. A buyer running the advertised command gets a tautology, not θ̂ vs true θ.
• run(), stream_route(), and batch_route() drop reasoning_effort_snapshot. HTTP and persist use run(), so the hash is not on the live record.
• Parse/hash fail open on None, blank profile_version, fractional seed, extra roles, and empty catalogs.
• access_list_scope "role" vs "workflow" is the same call.

#650 fixed θ̂ RMSE and in-process persist, but still fail-opened the gate on omitted/junk measurement_status, accepted boolean true-θ, dropped streamed snapshots on --state-db restart, and never reached ablation from the fuzz target. ModelClient still sent a single max_tokens with no reasoning_effort.

#677 fail-closes the measured-status gate, rejects boolean θ, persists streamed snapshots, reaches the ablation from the fuzz target, and applies opt-in catalog knobs on chat, stream, and batch. Independent review from seonghobae is requested there.

Production OrchestrationPolicy defaults were not changed. Do not fold this onto #608–#629. Live NIM evidence stays issue #86.

View PR

  

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