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Trader

Trader is an autonomous service that performs bets on existing prediction markets. The service roughly works as follows:

  1. Retrieve information on existing prediction markets that fulfill specific conditions, such as markets created by designated addresses.
  2. Utilize a sampling strategy to select one of the markets for predicting its outcome.
  3. Send a request to an AI Mech to assess the probabilities of the market's answers and obtain confidence values for the estimates.
  4. If the response from the AI Mech meets certain criteria indicating profitability, the service will place a bet on that market. The betting amount can be adjusted based on the confidence level provided by the AI Mech.
  5. In case the bet is deemed unprofitable, the market will be blacklisted for a configurable duration.
  6. Repeat the aforementioned steps in a cyclic manner.

Developers

  • System requirements:

  • Clone the repository:

    git clone https://github.com/valory-xyz/trader.git

  • Create development environment:

    poetry install && poetry shell

  • Configure command line:

    autonomy init --reset --author valory --remote --ipfs --ipfs-node "/dns/registry.autonolas.tech/tcp/443/https"

  • Pull packages:

    autonomy packages sync --update-packages

Testing the service against Gnosis Mainnet

  • Prepare some environment variables:

    export RPC_0=INSERT_YOUR_RPC
export RPC_1=INSERT_YOUR_RPC
export RPC_2=INSERT_YOUR_RPC
export RPC_3=INSERT_YOUR_RPC
export CHAIN_ID=100
export ALL_PARTICIPANTS='["YOUR_AGENT_ADDRESS"]'
export SAFE_CONTRACT_ADDRESS="YOUR_SAFE_ADDRESS"
export OMEN_CREATORS='["CREATOR_0", "CREATOR_1", ...]'

# Optional. The following example values bet a variable amount depending on the
# prediction confidence. Here, amounts vary between 0.03 xDAI (60% confidence)
# and 0.1 xDAI (100% confidence). Please, adjust these values accordingly.
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_000=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_000=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_010=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_020=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_030=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_040=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_050=0
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_060=30000000000000000
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_070=40000000000000000
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_080=60000000000000000
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_090=80000000000000000
export BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_100=100000000000000000

# Threshold for placing a bet 0.005 xDAI
export BET_THRESHOLD=5000000000000000

export PROMPT_TEMPLATE='With the given question "@{question}" and the `yes` option represented by `@{yes}` and the `no` option represented by `@{no}`, what are the respective probabilities of `p_yes` and `p_no` occurring?'

    Replace the above placeholders with their respective actual values:

    • RPC_i: RPC endpoint per agent (you can get an RPC endpoint, e.g. here).
    • CHAIN_ID: identifier of the chain on which the service is running.
    • ALL_PARTICIPANTS: list of all the agent addresses participating in the service. This demo is for running the service with a single agent. In case you want to run it with more agents, please edit the keys generation command below, and replace the --n 1 argument in the build command with the number of your agents.
    • SAFE_CONTRACT_ADDRESS: address of the agents' multisig wallet.
    • OMEN_CREATORS: addresses of the market creator(s) that the service will track for placing bets on Omen.
    • BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_X: amount (wei) to bet when the prediction returned by the AI Mech surpasses a threshold of X% confidence.
    • BET_THRESHOLD: threshold (wei) for placing a bet. That is, a bet will only be placed if expected_return - bet_fees >= BET_THRESHOLD. See below.
    • PROMPT_TEMPLATE: prompt to be used with the prediction AI Mech. Please keep it as a single line including the placeholders @{question}, @{yes} and @{no}.

  • Fetch the service

    autonomy fetch --local --service valory/trader && cd trader

  • Build the image:

    autonomy build-image

  • Prepare the agent keys for running the service with a single agent:

    cat > keys.json << EOF
[
{
    "address": "<your_agent_address>",
    "private_key": "<your_agent_private_key>"
}
]
EOF

    Please replace with your agent's address and private key in the command above.

  • Build the deployment with a single agent and run:

    autonomy deploy build --n 1 -ltm
autonomy deploy run --build-dir abci_build/

Some notes on the service

Please take into consideration the following:

  • If the service does not have enough funds for placing a bet, you will see an Event.INSUFICIENT_FUNDS in the service logs.
  • If the service determines that a bet is not profitable (i.e., expected_return - bet_fees < BET_THRESHOLD), you will see an Event.UNPROFITABLE in the service logs, and the service will transition into the blacklisting round. This round blacklists a bet for a predetermined amount of time. This can be adjusted by using the BLACKLISTING_DURATION environment variable.
  • For simplicity, the current implementation considers expected_return = bet_amount, although this calculation might be refined.
  • When assigning BET_THRESHOLD take into consideration that fees (at the time of writing this guide) are in the range of 0.02 xDAI. See for example here. We urge you to keep an eye on these fees, as they might vary.