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macroeconomic-forecasting

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End-to-end Python implementation of Ma et al.'s (2025) matrix-variate diffusion index models for macroeconomic forecasting. Features α-PCA factor extraction, supervised screening, and ILS estimation for high-dimensional forecasting with preserved structural information.

  • Updated Aug 10, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

End-to-End Python replication of Iadisernia & Camassa’s LLM macroeconomic forecasting methodology (ICAIF 2025). Implements: 2,368 synthetic economist profiles, 120,000+ GPT-4o forecasts across 50 European Central Bank (ECB) SPF rounds, a rigorous ablation study with Monte Carlo & binomial hypothesis testing.

  • Updated Nov 6, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

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