Duratec (DUR.AX) H2 2024 guidance analysis

Twitter/X Thread

Created by Radek Svoboda

Is it probable that guidance will be missed if current trends continue?

2024 Guidence:

Revenue: 570 - 610m
EBITDA: 45 - 52m

H1 2024 EBITDA Margin is 8.2 % and Revenue is 292.737m

EBITDA H1 2024 was 23.9m

📌 TLDR: Given the high revenue growth and current EBITDA of 8.2 % it is improbable in current conditions to miss the estimates as they are pretty reasonable

💡 If they want to miss EBITDA they would have to either:

Have EBITDA margin lower than 5.7 %
Lower Revenue CAGR in each segment by 7-9 % and have EBITDA margin lower than 6.2 %

Order book and Tenders are important for further Revenue/EBITDA growth

Order book is more volatile in nature
The most important thing is that Tenders are growing as if the win rate is maintained/higher than now, the order book will follow

⚡ For the detailed analyis check the Jupyter Notebook

You can run the code yourself using Google Colab