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#Mantzaris.jl#
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#Mantzaris.jl#
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function Mantzaris(stYr = 1975,endYr = 1980,windowSize = 5)
#load the data and add to a dictionary the number of countries in the year range
countryYearsNum = Dict{Integer,Integer}()
resultsFile = readdir("./dataTables/")
yrMin = 100000
yrMax = -1
for rf in resultsFile
fileTmp = open(string("./dataTables/",rf))
linesTmp = readlines(fileTmp) #readfile lines
yrTmp = parse(Int,((split(rf,"."))[1]))
countryNumTmp = length(split(linesTmp[1],",")) - 1#COLUMN NAME LIST (still the same regarding large set mapping to small set in cols) OF WHO CAN RECEIVE VOTES
countryYearsNum[yrTmp] = countryNumTmp #NUM that receives votes
close(fileTmp)
if(yrTmp < yrMin)
yrMin = yrTmp
end
if(yrTmp > yrMax)
yrMax = yrTmp
end
end
#sanity check input years
if( endYr < stYr || stYr < yrMin || endYr > yrMax )
print(string("year range improperly set, for the analysis end year must be greater than start and the smallest year is $(yrMin) and largest $(yrMax) with smallest first"))
return
end
if( (stYr+windowSize) > endYr)
print("not enough years between start and end for analysis")
return
end
#THRESHOLDS
windowConf = Dict() #the threshold for significance in each year of window
yr = stYr
while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
conf5perc = scoreSim(yr,yr+windowSize,countryYearsNum)#what a typical scenario of unbiased voting towards candidate set of receivers
yr = yr + windowSize
windowConf[string(yr-windowSize,"-",yr)] = conf5perc
end
#MATRIX WINDOW AVGS
#print(windowConf)
winDicts = windowScores(stYr,endYr,windowSize)
#print(winDicts)
collusionDict = countryCollusion(stYr,endYr,windowSize,windowConf,winDicts)
#print("collusion Dict:\n")
#print(collusionDict)
return collusionDict
end
function countryCollusion(stYr,endYr,windowSize,windowConf,winDicts)
#FROM THE THRESHOLDS DETERMINE THE COUNTRY PAIRS OF COLLUSION
collusionDict = Dict()
yr = stYr
while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
tmp = windowConf["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]
threshold = tmp[2]
cntryNames = winDicts["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]["countries"]
scoremat = winDicts["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]["scoremat"]
scorematAVG = scoremat * (1/(windowSize+1))
collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = []
collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = []
for ii=1:(size(scoremat)[1])
for jj=1:(size(scoremat)[2])
if(scorematAVG[ii,jj] >= threshold)
c1 = cntryNames[ii]
c2 = cntryNames[jj]
prev = collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]
new = append!(prev, ["$(c1)-$(c2)"])
collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = new
end
end
end
threshold1 = tmp[2]
for ii=1:(size(scoremat)[1])
for jj=1:(size(scoremat)[2])
if(jj>ii)
if((scorematAVG[ii,jj] >= threshold1) && (scorematAVG[jj,ii] >= threshold1))
c1 = cntryNames[ii]
c2 = cntryNames[jj]
prev = collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]
new = append!(prev, ["$(c1)-$(c2)"])
collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = new
end
end
end
end
yr = yr + windowSize
end
return collusionDict
end
#FOR EACH TIME WINDOW
function windowScores(stYr,endYr,windowSize)
#(make the output overall score matrices symmetric)
#1-DICTIONARY FOR EACH WINDOW INTERVAL
winDict = Dict()
yr = stYr
while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"] = Dict()
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"] = [] #this gets filled with the total set.
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = []
yr = yr + windowSize
end
#2-FILL DICTIONARY WITH ALL POSSIBLE COUNTRY PAIRS IN THOSE YEARS IT COVERS
resultsFile = readdir("./dataTables/")
namesDict = Dict()
scoresDict = Dict()
for rf in resultsFile
yrTmp = parse(Int,((split(rf,"."))[1]))
fileTmp = open(string("./dataTables/",rf))#each file pipe
linesTmp = readlines(fileTmp) #read each file lines
origColNames = split(linesTmp[1],r",|\n",keep=false) #store the COL name list of the columns
#print(origColNames);print("\n")
splice!(origColNames,1) #remove first entry
#print(origColNames);print("\n")
rowNAMES =[]
for ii=2:length(linesTmp)#get the ROW's name list
rowNAMEStmp = split(linesTmp[ii],r",|\n",keep=false)
#print(rowNAMEStmp[1]);print("\n")
append!(rowNAMES, [rowNAMEStmp[1]])
end
totalNames = sort(unique(append!(rowNAMES,origColNames)))
#>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<
namesDict[yrTmp] = totalNames#IMPORTANT! here is the name list of the year stored
#>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<
nameNum = length(totalNames)
scoreMat = zeros(nameNum,nameNum)
#print(totalNames);print(scoreMat);print("\n")
for ii=2:length(linesTmp)#fill the scoremat
lineScores = split(linesTmp[ii],r",|\n",keep=false)
votingCNTRY = lineScores[1]
splice!(lineScores,1)
lineScores = [parse(Int,lineScores[tt]) for tt in 1:length(lineScores)]
for jj=1:length(lineScores)
scoreTMP = lineScores[jj]
colNAME = origColNames[jj]
newColNamePos = find([totalNames[tt] == colNAME for tt in 1:length(totalNames)])
scoreMat[ii-1,newColNamePos] = scoreTMP
end
end
scoresDict[string(yrTmp)] = scoreMat
close(fileTmp)
end
yr = stYr
while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
winInd = 0
while(winInd <= windowSize)
new = namesDict[yr + winInd]
prev = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"]
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"] = sort(unique(append!(prev,new)))
winInd = winInd + 1
end
yr = yr + windowSize
end
#3-ACCUMULATE POINTS OF EACH PARTICULAR COUNTRY TOWARDS ANOTHER DIFFERENT COUNTRY
yr = stYr
while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
winInd = 0
cntryNum = length(winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"])#WILL BECOME ARRAAY FOR ROW AND COL SIZE
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = zeros(cntryNum,cntryNum)#WILL BECOME ASSYMETRIC!!!
while(winInd <= windowSize)
matPrev = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"]
matNew = zeros(length(matPrev[:,1]),length(matPrev[1,:]))
namesTotal = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"]
yrScoresMat = scoresDict[string(yr+winInd)]#the matrix for a PARTICULAR YEAR (might not be nxn)
yrNames = namesDict[yr+winInd]
for rowNum=1:length(yrScoresMat[:,1])#change the year nameInds to the total window Inds of names
newIndsMat = []
for colNum=1:length(find(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:]))
tmpNamesMat = yrNames[find(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:])] #non-zero cols
newIndsMat = sort(append!(find([namesTotal[ii] == tmpNamesMat[colNum] for ii in 1:length(namesTotal)]),newIndsMat))
end
rowNumNew = find([namesTotal[ii] == yrNames[rowNum] for ii in 1:length(namesTotal)])
matNew[rowNumNew,newIndsMat] = yrScoresMat[rowNum,find(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:])]
end
winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = matPrev + matNew
winInd = winInd + 1
end
yr = yr + windowSize
end
return winDict
end
#THRESHOLD FOR EACH TIME WINDOW; looking at each year in the range-> for each year draw a hypothetical score -> from the applicable voting paradigm -> accumulate the score (I will simulate each year independently from stYr:endYr choosing the appropriate scheme each time
function scoreSim(stYr,endYr,countryYearsNum)
AVG_SIMULATION = []
iterNum = 2500
confInd5perc = max(1,floor(Int,0.05*iterNum))
confInd10perc = max(1,floor(Int,0.1*iterNum))
for ii = 1:iterNum
ONE_SIMULATION = []
for yr = stYr:endYr
NUM = countryYearsNum[yr]#number of countries voting that year
if(yr >= 1975 || yr == 1963 || yr == 1962)
score = Allocated(yr,NUM)
elseif( (1964<=yr<= 1966) || yr==1974 || (1967<=yr<=1970) || (1957<=yr<=1961))
score = Sequential(yr,NUM)
elseif(1971<=yr<=1973)
score = Rated(yr,NUM)
else
score = Allocated(-1,NUM)
end
append!(ONE_SIMULATION,[score])
end
avgSim = mean(ONE_SIMULATION)
append!(AVG_SIMULATION,[avgSim])
end
sortedAVG_SIMULATION = sort(AVG_SIMULATION,rev=true)
conf5perc = sortedAVG_SIMULATION[confInd5perc]
conf10perc = sortedAVG_SIMULATION[confInd10perc]
return [conf10perc,conf5perc]
end
#here each country can receive a set of scores with consecutive points awarded
#in sequence for that year it has an equal chance of receiving each score
function Sequential(yr,NUM)
SCORES1 = [5,3,1]
SCORES2 = ones(Int,1,10)
score = 0
#so we iterate through the scores to see how many of the points we amass
if( 1964 <= yr <= 1966)
for ii=1:length(SCORES1)
position = ceil(rand(1,1)*NUM)
if([position][1] == 1)
score = SCORES1[ii] + score
end
end
elseif(yr==1974 || (1967<=yr<=1970) || (1957<=yr<=1961))
for ii=1:length(SCORES2)
position = ceil(rand(1,1)*NUM)
if([position][1] == 1)
score = SCORES2[ii] + score
end
end
end
return score
end
function Allocated(yr,NUM)
SCORES1 = [3,2,1]
SCORES2 = [5,4,3,2,1]
SCORES3 = [12,10,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1]
position = ceil(rand(1,1)*NUM)
if(yr >= 1975 && yr <= 2016)
SCORES = SCORES3
elseif(yr == 1962)
SCORES = SCORES1
elseif(yr == 1963)
SCORES = SCORES2
else
SCORES = SCORES3
end
if position[1] <= length(SCORES)
score = SCORES[position]
else
score = 0
end
return score
end
function Rated(yr,NUM)
SCORES1 = [5,4,3,2,1]
if(1971<=yr<=1973)
X1 = SCORES1[rand(1:end)]
X2 = SCORES1[rand(1:end)]
end
score = X1 + X2
return score
end