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investment for dummies

本书当然是根据美国的情况写的，各种细节需要根据中国国情进行考量，但大的方向应该不会错。

chapter 03: Getting Your Financial House in Order before You Invest

  • 投资越年轻越好，越早的越要承受更多的风险以期待更多的回报，因为想房产证券等在长远来看基本上是升值的，短期存在更大的风险，所以老的时候要规避风险，但是最好拿出一定比例的金钱去投资些风险相对高的产品，因为有可能多活好几十年 :)

  • 养老保险

    • 一定要尽早开始，要不然要完成对应的目标每年的金钱存入的压力越大
    • 养老账户有tax return

  • 子女上学:

    • 401plan，什么乱遭的投资结构要放在自己名下，不能放在孩子名下，要不可能会影响到孩子的救助金申请
    • 同样如果很快把按揭换完的话，学校也有可能因为你名下的房产影响到救助金申请

  • 了解什么会收税，什么不会

  • DCA (dollar cost averaging ): 就是定投，每个月固定投资些来分担风险

  • VCA (value cost averaging): 定投的变种，比如这个月投资500，但是到月底损失了10%，那就是450，那下个月投资就是50+500=550， 就是价格高的时候就少投些，价格低的时候就是多投些。容易在股票价格上涨中回本，但是如果股价一直下跌会损失的很惨。

这两种方式： 书上说了，如果说你有很多钱，完全不必浪费自己的时间去搞定投，因为对应的波动对你来说根本没什么风险。

  • 保险：（中国保险靠不靠谱 ！！），保险这东西，基础经济学中就已经阐述的很明白了，保险是风险转移工具，当你有足够多的钱去承担各种风险，就没有必要上保险了。当然，如果没有，比如你的亲人需要你来提供经济支持，就很有必要了。
    • 重要关键的资产一定要上保险
    • 关键的大病也要上保险

chapter 04: The Workings of Stock and Bond Markets

  • 公司集资的方式, stock & bond.各有利弊
  • PE： 这没什么

Weighing whether markets are efficient： 说的就是，如果一个市场竞争充分的话，那每个投资者都会准确的根据信息反映出对应股票的经济价值，最终你看到的就是实际的价值的价格。那么你买到的和专业人士分析的股票是一样的效果。大家都没有买贵或者买便宜。 这就是efficient market，这个理论我觉得只是说你随便买就好了，但问题是股票的价值是反应在未来的，所以关键的一点还是你自己对于未来的想法。这个理论能解决的就是你买股票的时机（那就是任何时机节点都一样，你买不了吃亏）。但是我对于国内的直观感觉还是竞争不充分，而且有很多黑箱。

  • 债券和股票基本上是竞争充分的市场，房地产则没那么

  • Inflation and interest rates usually move in tandem.

    The primary driver of interest rates is the rate of inflation. Interest rates were much higher in the 1980s because the United States had double-digit inflation. If the cost of living increases at the rate of 10 percent per year, why would you, as an investor, lend your money (which is what you do when you purchase a bond or CD) at 5 percent? Interest rates were so much higher in the early 1980s because you or I would never do such a thing.

Federal Reserve:(美联储)

  • 美联储的构成：

    • The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. The Federal Reserve Board comprises the 12 presidents from the respective Federal Reserve district banks and the 7 Federal Reserve governors, including the chairman who conducts the Federal Open Market Committee meet- ings behind closed doors eight times a year.

  • 美联储的职责：

    • 调节市场利率，供应货币总量，调节银行隔夜拆解利率

    The Fed, from time to time and in different ways, attempts to influence the supply and demand for money and the cost of money. To this end, the Fed raises or lowers short-term interest rates, primarily by buying and selling U.S. Treasury bills on the open market. Through this trading activity, known as open market operations, the Fed is able to target the Federal funds rate — the rate at which banks borrow from one another overnight.

Many factors influence the course of stock prices. Never, ever make a trade or investment based on what someone at the Federal Reserve says or what someone in the media or some market pundit reads into the Fed chairman’s comments. You need to make your investment plans based on your needs and goals, not what the Fed does or doesn’t do.

chapter 05: Building Wealth with Stocks

  • Counting reasons to use indexes

    • First, they can quickly give you an idea of how particular types of stocks fare and perform in comparison with other types of stocks. (说的是不同类型的，比如代表整个美国交易市场价值的70的S&P500指数和代表中小企业的Russell 2000指数区别)

    • Indexes also allow you to compare or benchmark the performance of your stock market investments。（比对自己的收益，比如你投资的公司和对应的指数的基线差）

Stock-Buying Methods:

  • mutual funds:

    • 优点：够分散，职业人员管理，低费用
    • 缺点：控制权不足

  • ETF（不知道是什么）

  • hedge funds（对冲基金）: 门槛比较高

Selecting your own stocks:

  • Before you invest in any individual stock, no matter how great a company you think it is, you need to understand the company’s line of busi- ness, strategies, competitors, financial statements, and price-earnings ratio versus the competition, among many other issues. Selecting and monitoring good companies take lots of research, time, and discipline.

  • So you need to understand the barriers to entry that a leading company has erected and how difficult or easy it is for competitors to join the fray.

  • be wary of analysts' predictions, due to interets conficts, they may brand their client's company stock.

  • Many brokerage firms happen to be in another business that creates enor- mous conflicts of interest in producing objective company reviews. These investment firms also solicit companies to help them sell new stock and bond issues. To gain this business, the brokerage firms need to demonstrate enthu- siasm and optimism for the company’s future prospects.

  • day trading: 一天内交易，一次或者多次买入卖出。

    • 缺点：手续费，税费（美国一年内的收益算是短期收益，相应的收税也更高），需要大量时间关注
    • 更倾向于赌博

chapter 06: Investigating and Purchasing Individual Stocks

tools:

  • value line: 这个产品是美国公司提供的一个股票数据report，按年收费的，费用不低

指标:

  • cash flow: 公司的现金流，税法一般会允许对公司设备资产的减值做抵税，但是这种抵税会影响到公司实际的现金流估计

  • Book value per share: 公司所有资产减去负债/股票数, 银行股需要注意这个值，因为银行股通常不会记录借出去的债务，这样如果债务没有被还清，那么这个值的真实性会受到影响

  • Market share: 市场占有率

  • P/E, (price-to-earnings ratio): 股票估值，价值/每股净盈利

  • Capital structure: 资本结构

    • Short-term debt: Debt due within one year

    • Long-term debt: Debt that has to be paid back in more than a year

    • 怎么计算公司债务是否合理

      • long-term interest earned: which compares a company’s annual profits to the yearly interest payments on its long-term debt
      • Total interest coverage: (公司的利润除以公司所有债务) represents a similar comparison of profits to interest owed for all the debt that a company owes, not just long-term debt

  • Current position: 公司所有能变现的资产除以今年要偿还的债务

  • quick ratio: 所有能变现的资产(不包括库存)/今年要偿还的债务

  • Quarterly financials： 季度财务状况

brokerage：brokerage会提供折扣还有资讯，但是有的资讯可能有利益关系

  • The annual report

    • Balance sheet

      • Assets

        • cash

        • Accounts receivable: (账面上可回收资产)，比如商业发票，（商业发票有日期，货物，数量，总价，合同号等等），用户先收货后付钱。

        • Investments: stock & mutual fund

        • Property and equipment: 设备和资产的价格

        • Goodwill:

          • 什么是商誉(Goodwill):
            • http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goodwill.asp
            • 简单来说就是一个公司的影响力，属于无形资产, （比如说可口可乐的配方和品牌知名度），Goodwill的估值一般是在一个公司收购另一个公司，在book value达成 协议的基础上的一个溢价

        • other assets

      • Liabilities:

        • Accounts payable: （账面待还）

          • When a company places orders to purchase things for its business, it sometimes has a lag between receiving a bill and paying it; the money owed is called accounts payable.

        • Accrued compensation： 养老账户，美国的是属于公司扣款，公司还（好像是）

        • Income taxes payable： 待交税

        • Dividends payable: 待分红

      • Stockholders’ equity：

        • The difference between a company’s assets and liabilities is known as stock- holders’ equity.

    • The Income Sheet:

      • Revenue: 收入来源

      • Expenses： 花费来源

        • It’s particularly useful to examine each category of expenses relative to (in other words, as a percentage of) the company’s revenue to see which ones grow or shrink.

  • Exploring Other Useful Corporate Reports

    • 证券交易网站上能看到公司的其他信息

    • 10-Ks:

      10-Ks are expanded versions of the annual report. Most investment professionals read the 10-K rather than the annual report because the 10-K contains additional data and information, especially for a company’s various divisions and product lines.

    • 股东委托书(Proxy Statement):

  • Tips

    • Remember, though, that smart financial market participants are looking ahead, so if you run out to buy stock in a company that’s reporting higher profits, those higher profits are old news and likely have already been priced into the com- pany’s current market value.

    • About invest your own stock: Keep the amount that you dedicate to individual stock investments to a minimum — ideally, no more than 20 percent of your invested dollars. I encourage you to do such investing for the educational value and enjoyment that you derive from it, not because you smugly think you’re as skilled as the best professional money managers.

    • One final word of advice: Try to buy stock in good-size chunks, such as 100 shares. Otherwise, commissions gobble a large percentage of the small dollar amount that you invest.

chapter 07: Exploring Bonds and Other Lending Investments

  • bank

    • certificate of deposit (CD)： 死期存款
    • CD vs bonds:
      • The interest on CDs is fully taxable at the federal and state levels. Bonds, by contrast, are available (if you desire) in tax-free (federal and/or state) versions.

  • fund（基金）:

    • Money market funds：货币基金
      • 优势：
        • 比存款利率高， 有些是免税的
        • a better replacement for bank, 存入金钱，取款用支票的形式
        • Money market funds are a good place to keep your emergency cash reserveof at least three to six months’ living expenses. They’re also a great place to keep money awaiting investment elsewhere in the near future. If you’re saving money for a home that you expect to purchase soon (in the next year or so), a money market fund can be a safe place to accumulate and grow the down pay- ment. You don’t want to risk placing such money in the stock market, because the market can plunge in a relatively short period of time.
      • 劣势：
        • 没有保险（不过正常情况下都非常安全，尤其是大的公司）

  • Bond（债券）:

    • http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/Bond

    • 特点

      • 比CD和 Money market funds 的收益要高, 相对也安全些，尤其是大公司发行的。相对于股票来说，在坏的金融环境下，bond的收益普遍要好。
      • 可以在市场上进行买卖，liquidation 要好。
      • 是一种直接债务的体现
      • If interest rates fall, bond prices rise; if interest rates rise, bond prices fall。
        • 这部分原因是，假如利率涨了，对应的bond的利率也会涨，那么相对来说别人肯定会优先考虑利率高的bond

    • 维度:

      • Maturity, 成熟度:
        • 长期，中期，还是短期: 总的来说长期的yield通常会高些
      • 评级: AAA-C
      • issuer:
        • treasury，国债: 美国的国债是免税的
        • international bonds, 国际债券：国际债券的好处就是可以躲避本国的金融风险，但自身的风险也更高，收益有可能被汇率的波动offset掉
        • corporate bond，公司债
        • Convertible bonds，可转换债券：在特定条件下可以转换成对应公司的股份

    • 交易方式: 证券公司，基金公司间接管理

      • 不建议自己选择购买债券，分析难度，时间成本，佣金费用等等

tips:

  • I don’t recommend buying individual junk bonds — consider investing in these only through a well-run junk-bond fund.

chapter 08: Mastering Mutual Funds

About Mutual Funds:

  • Such failures can’t happen with a mutual fund because the value of the fund’s shares fluctuates as the securities in the fund rise and fall in value. For every dollar of securities they hold for their customers, mutual funds have a dollar’s worth of securities. The worst that can happen with a fund is that if you want your money, you may get less money than you originally put into the fund due to a market value decline of the fund’s holdings — but you won’t lose all your original investment.

  • All types of funds with higher operating expenses tend to produce lower rates of return on average. Conversely, funds with lower operating costs can more easily produce higher returns for you than a comparable type of fund with high costs.

  • Thus, a good fund should consistently deliver a favorable rate of return given the level of risk that it takes.

    • 历史收益比较高的fund，可能是由于以前的承受的风险比较高或者由于luck,所以买fund时候需要观察收益是否是合理或者合适就好。

  • 注重基金公司的背景：

    • A great deal of emphasis is placed on who manages a specific mutual fund. Although the individual fund manager is important, a manager isn’t an island unto himself. The resources and capabilities of the parent company are equally, if not more, important. Managers come and go, but fund companies usually don’t.

  • 频繁的交易会产生减少对应的回报

    • Mutual fund managers of actively managed portfolios, in their attempts to increase returns, buy and sell securities more frequently. However, this trading increases a fund’s taxable capital gains dis- tributions and reduces a fund’s after-tax return.

购买fund需要注意的点:

  • 手续费，运营费

  • Index fund：

    • index fund 费用低，所以收益要好，因为股票的平均收益在10%左右，1.2%的actively managed fund的手续费就看起来很高了

  • Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)：

    • ETF 是属于基金，但是交易必须在brokerage（券商？）开户，像买股票一样，而且etf一般会track一些index，并会slightly偏离index的价值。

  • 分散投资

  • 维度

    • 基金公司投资的公司的市值大小
    • Growth versus value：
      • Growth stocks have high prices in relation to the company’s assets, profits, and potential profits.
      • Value stocks are priced cheaply in relation to the company’s assets, profits, and potential profits.
    • Company location:

  • avoid Sector funds:

    • Sector funds invest in securities in specific industries.
    • reason
      • Lack of diversification
      • High fees
      • Taxable distributions

  • 类型:

    • stock fund:

    • bond fund:

      • short-term bond fund:

        • Of all bond funds, short-term bond funds are the least sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.
          • 所以比较稳定，适合短期内可能需要钱的这种情况，当然收益相对也低些

      • intermediate-term bond funds（10年期左右）

    • Hybrid funds： invest in a mixture of different types of securities.

    • Money Market Funds：

      • low risk:
        • Under Securities and Exchange Commission regulations, money market funds can invest only in the highest-credit-rated securities, and their investments must have an average maturity of less than 90 days.

  • notes

    • 债券与利率的反比关系:

      • https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/8524420.html
      • 债券的票面价值发行之后，就已经是固定的了(票面利率)，即单位收益是确定的，当银行利率升高，债券为了保证其竞争性，必须降低其票面价值。当银行利率变低，债券就相对于以前要升值了。

    • Over the long term, you’ll probably do best with efficiently managed funds that stick with an investment objective and that don’t try to time and predict the bond market.

      • 主要是由于预测市场变动很复杂，基本等同于Gamble这个论点基础

chapter 09: Choosing a Brokerage Firm

chapter 10: Investing in a Home

  • renting has at least one big drawback: exposure to inflation.

    • 买房在长期看(10years+)是比租房便宜的, （中国国情就不是很清楚）
    • 买房在中国维护成本并不高

  • market health

    • The state of the job market,
    • the number of home listings for sale,
    • and the level of real estate prices as compared to rent are useful indicators of the housing market’s health.

  • 房产交易花费的点： *

  • 房产交易前:

    • 详尽的调查:
      • 周边环境，犯罪率，自然灾害，学校质量，小区内设施，询问邻居和租客对于这个地方的看法，税率

tips:

  • Buying a home without considering your other monthly expenditures and long-term goals may cause you to end up with a home that dictates much of your future spending

  • 房产投资一定要考虑税率

chapter 11: Investing in Real Estate

房产投资: * features * 可以用杠杆(leverage) * 可以增值，并且有租金回报, 通过修缮和装修可以进一步增加价值 * 满足虚荣心 * long term

* ppl should stay away from real estate investment
    * You’re time starved and anxious. 
    * You’re not interested in real estate.

tips:

  • 房产投资需要考虑的: 税率策略，房产检查，估值(房租，listed sells, 附近的环境，比价-历史价格&同类价格对比，proper house inspection, )

  • 房产可以有seminars(研讨会)可以参加，

  • You can hire a property manager to help with screening and finding good tenants and troubleshooting problems with the building you purchase

  • words:

    • down payment: 首付

chapter 12: Real Estate Financing and Deal Making

notes:

  • Landing a great fixed-rate mortgage:

    • 借款有两种 no-points loan, points loan
      • points loan: 就是在借款的时候需要给借款方一个预付款, 1 point == 1%, 然后乘以每年的利率(总金额)

  • Finding a suitable adjustable-rate mortgage:

    • start rate: your start rate is the rate that your adjustable mortgage begins with
    • adjustable-rate mortgage 一般的公式:
      • index + margin = interest rate
      • index: 是基准利率, 一般为 6 月期的国债, 银行活期利率
      • margin: 是broker(供应商)加的利率
      • 最终结果是你自己要担负的利率

  • Never take an ARM without rate caps!

  • About Real estate Agents:

    • Some agents market themselves as top producers, meaning that they sell a relatively larger volume of real estate. This title doesn’t matter much to you, the buyer. In fact, you may use this information as a potential red flag for an agent who focuses on completing as many deals as possible. Such an agent may not be able to give you the time and help that you need to get the house you want.

  • title insurance:

    • 保险用于防止你购买的房产有产权纠纷造成的麻烦

glossary:

chapter 13: Assessing Your Appetite for Small Business

summary: 这章主要是让你对自己做一个基本的评估, 是否时候自己做 entrepreneur, 然后评估下除了自己 own a business 之外的选项 即 buy a exsiting business, 最后就是自己开始 own a business 需要做的准备

chapter 14: Starting and Running a Small Business

summary: 这章讲了如果自己创业

  • bootstrap的资金渠道
  • why you should keep your customer happy

notes:

  • 如果自己经营生意的话, 国内的社保怎么处理, 还有为了延续以前的社保, 原本公司交的那部分可不可以从盈利中走税务扣除

  • Incorporate:

    • Incorporation
    • 没太懂啥意思, 这个词, 感觉是成立公司, 好处似乎是能将公司资产和负债和个人分割开.

    A major reason to consider incorporation is liability protection. Incorporation effectively separates your business from your personal finances, thereby better protecting your personal assets from lawsuits that may arise from your business.

    • incorporate 好像也有坏处, 就是会交税两次, 公司盈利的税, 然后就是公司付给你的收益的税

    • Start off your business as a sole proprietorship and then take it from there. Wait until the benefits of incorpo- rating your business clearly outweigh the costs and drawbacks.

  • Liability protection:

    • 这个好像是说购买 liablity insurance, 来防范可能出现的 law suit.

  • tax advisor & attorney & bunessniss advisor

    Attorneys who specialize in advising small businesses can help explain the legal issues. Tax advisors who perform a lot of work with business owners can help explain the tax considerations.

chapter 15: Purchasing a Small Business

chapter 16: Selecting Investing Resources Wisely

summary: 介绍了当前信息爆炸的媒体时代, 为什么有的信息是不可信的, 作者又给出了些建议去 counter some of this kind of issues

others

references:

  • Inovice， 发票 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invoice

  • 证券经纪商(Brokerage House/ Brokerage Firm):

  • 看来创业之前还是需要找个好的法务资讯下, 这个员工的社保问题就头大了

todos:

  • 中国买房需要的手续, 税费，公积金，是否包含减税等等
  • Consumer debt
  • book [House Selling For Dummies,] [Small Business For Dummies, ]
  • 这本书讲的好多都是美国的情况, 比如税务减免&扣除, 我是否需要买本中文的同类书籍, 看下国内的情况