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Update todo.md - Issue #84 resolved, validation pipeline fixed
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todo.md

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- **Commit f85a59d**: Fix HistoricalGEXDatabaseBuilder - Store real prices, not obfuscated fallback
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- **Commit 175a9bd**: Fix OutcomeCalculator - Prioritize database lookup over deep ITM inference
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- **Commit 8fc04d0**: Update project status - Q1-Q4 validation complete
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- **Commit c926b9c**: Fix Issue #84 - Add fail-fast validation for data coverage
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### ✅ GitHub Issues Closed (Chat B - Oct 12)
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**8 issues closed** - Refocused on research (not trading system):
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- Issue #71: Strike-level trading strategy (not needed)
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- Issue #46, #47, #48, #49: Trading infrastructure (not research)
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- Issue #30: GEX trading signals (not research)
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- Issue #58: Baseline comparison (pattern not profitable)
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- Issue #79: Pattern taxonomy validation (**SUCCESS** - research complete)
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### ✅ GitHub Issues Resolved (Oct 12)
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**9 issues closed/resolved** - Refocused on research:
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- **Issue #84**: Validation Pipeline Design Flaw ✅ RESOLVED (Chat A)
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- **Issue #79**: Pattern taxonomy validation (**SUCCESS** - research complete)
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- **Issue #71**: Strike-level trading strategy (closed - not needed)
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- **Issue #46, #47, #48, #49**: Trading infrastructure (closed - not research)
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- **Issue #30**: GEX trading signals (closed - not research)
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- **Issue #58**: Baseline comparison (closed - pattern not profitable)
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## Next Actions (Priority Order)
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### 1. Review Remaining Issues (Chat A) - From Chat B Handoff
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### 1. Review Remaining Issues (Chat A)
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**6 issues need research alignment review**:
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**Issue #54** - Market Mechanics Pattern Library
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- Keep if expanding research validation methodology
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- Close if preparing for live trading
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### 2. Prioritize Issue #84 (HIGH PRIORITY)
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**Validation Pipeline Design Flaw**: Only tests cached dates, may bias results
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- **Impact**: Could invalidate research findings
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- **Action**: Fix before publishing research
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### 3. Research Direction Decision
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### 2. Research Direction Decision
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**Core research goal**: "Can LLMs detect structural market microstructure patterns without memorization?"
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**Status**: ✅ ANSWERED - Yes, LLM detects patterns with 84-100% accuracy
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- Fixed path to correct gex_database.db
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- Forward returns now accurate
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### Issue #84 Validation Pipeline Fix ✅ COMPLETE
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- Root cause: Only tested cached dates without coverage validation
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- Fixed with fail-fast validation requiring ≥80% coverage
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- Q2 limitation documented (27% coverage - insufficient)
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- Documentation: docs/guides/issue-84-resolution.md
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---
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## Active Research Issues
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### HIGH PRIORITY
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**Issue #84** - Validation Pipeline Design Flaw
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- Only tests cached dates, may introduce selection bias
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- Must fix before publishing research findings
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### UNDER REVIEW (Pending Research Alignment Assessment)
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- Issue #54: Market Mechanics Pattern Library
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- Issue #52: Temporal Pattern Detection
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## Closed Issues (October 2025)
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### Research Complete
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- ~~Issue #84: Validation Pipeline Design Flaw~~ - ✅ RESOLVED (Oct 12) - Fail-fast coverage validation
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- ~~Issue #79: Pattern Taxonomy Validation~~ - ✅ SUCCESS (Oct 12) - LLM detects patterns accurately
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- ~~Issue #80: Enhanced Output Structure~~ - ✅ Closed Oct 9
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- ~~Issue #81: Obfuscation Bug~~ - ✅ Closed Oct 7
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- ~~Issue #44: Cache System Bug~~ - ✅ Resolved
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- Database corruption (450.0 obfuscation bug) - ✅ Fixed Oct 11
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- OutcomeCalculator path bug - ✅ Fixed Oct 11
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- Validation pipeline coverage bug (Issue #84) - ✅ Fixed Oct 12
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## Current Blockers
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**NONE** - All technical work complete.
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**NONE** - All technical work complete. Issue #84 resolved.
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**DECISION NEEDED**: Research direction
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- Test new patterns? (find one with economic edge)

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