These notebooks, scripts, and data correspond to the analysis in Hausfather, Drake, Abbott, and Schmidt (2019), Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085378.
The environment.yml file contains the python dependencies necessary to run the data processing notebooks. Figures 1, 2, S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5 were produced offline using the plotting software STATA based on the raw data in data/raw and the interim data files in data/interim produced by the notebook Obs forcing analysis.ipynb and saved in data/processed. Figures 3 and S6 were produced using the python notebooks plot_temperature_forcing_spaghetti.ipynb and plot_temperature_forcing_FAR_spaghetti.ipynb based on the data in data/processed/.
Example: Figure 3 shows the Hansen et al. 1988 projections compared with observations on a temperature vs. time basis (top) and temperature vs external forcing (bottom). The dashed grey line in the top panel represent the start of the projection period. The transparent blue lines in the lower panel represent 500 random samples of the 5000 combinations of the 5 temperature observation products and the 1000 ensemble members of estimated forcings (the full ensemble is subsampled for visual clarity). The dashed blue lines show the 95% confidence intervals for the 5000 member ensemble (see supplementary text S1.4 for details). Anomalies for both temperature and forcing are shown relative to a 1958-1987 pre-projection baseline.
