Forecast-Inflation

This project presents a thorough analysis of inflation in Turkey by leveraging a diverse dataset obtained from reputable sources, including the OECD, World Bank, Turkish Statistical Institute, and government portals. The dataset encompasses crucial economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), gold and oil prices, unemployment rates, exchange rates, and interest rates, covering the monthly inflation rate data from January 2005 to September 2023. Employing various time series models and regression techniques, both univariate and multivariate approaches are considered for forecasting inflation. The findings underscore the challenges posed by non-stationarity in the inflation data and provide a comparative assessment of the performance of different models in predicting future inflation trends. The primary objective is to examine and compare the effectiveness of these methods in forecasting the inflation rate over a four-month horizon, offering valuable insights into potential trends and fluctuations in the Turkish economy.