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Tom's May 14 edits of input-output lecture
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lectures/input_output.md

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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ import networkx as nx
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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```
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The following figure illustrates a network of linkages between 15 sectors
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The following figure illustrates a network of linkages among 15 sectors
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obtained from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2019 Input-Output Accounts
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Data.
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| ma | Manufacturing | fi | Finance | go | Government |
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An arrow from $i$ to $j$ implies that sector $i$ supplies some of its output as
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raw material to sector $j$.
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An arrow from $i$ to $j$ means that some of sector $i$'s output serves as an input to production of sector $j$.
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Economies are characterised by many such complex and interdependent multisector
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production networks.
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Economies are characterised by many such links.
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A basic framework for their analysis is
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[Leontief's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wassily_Leontief) input-output model.
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This model's key aspect is its simplicity.
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In this lecture, we first introduce the standard input-ouput model and approach it as a linear programming problem.
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(TODO add link to lpp lecture)
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After introducing the input-ouput model, we describe some of its connections to linear programming.
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(XXXX TODO add link to lpp lecture)
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## Input output analysis
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The production function for goods $j \in \{1, \ldots , n\}$ is the **Leontief** function
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The technology for producing good $j \in \{1, \ldots , n\}$ is described by the **Leontief** function
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$$
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x_j = \min_{i \in \{0, \ldots , n \}} \left( \frac{z_{ij}}{a_{ij}}\right)
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$$
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### Two goods
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To illustrate ideas, we begin by setting $n =2$.
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The following is a simple illustration of this network.
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To illustrate, we begin by setting $n =2$ and formulating
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the following network.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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+++ {"user_expressions": []}
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More generally the constraints can be written as
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More generally, constraints on production are
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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x = (I -A)^{-1} d \equiv L d
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$$ (eq:inout_2)
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where $L = (I-A)^{-1}$.
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where the matrix $L = (I-A)^{-1}$ is sometimes called a **Leontief Inverse**.
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This matrix is also known as the **Leontief Inverse**.
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We assume the **Hawkins-Simon conditions** stated as
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To assure that the solution $X$ of {eq}`eq:inout_2` is a positive vector, the following **Hawkins-Simon conditions** suffice:
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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to assure that the solution $X$ of {eq}`eq:inout_2` is a positive vector.
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Consider for example a two good economy such that
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For example a two good economy described by
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$$
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A =
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A_0' = a_0' (I - A)^{-1}
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$$
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The $i$th Component $A_0$ is the amount of labor that is required to produce one unit of final output of good $i$ for $i \in \{1, \ldots , n\}$.
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For $i \in \{1, \ldots , n\}$, the $i$th component of $A_0$ is the amount of labor that is required to produce one unit of final output of good $i$.
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Equation {eq}`eq:inout_frontier` sweeps out a **production possibility frontier** of final consumption bundles $d$ that can be produced with exogenous labor input $x_0$.
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Consider the example in {eq}`eq:inout_ex`.
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Suppose we are now given
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$$
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a_0' = \begin{bmatrix}
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4 & 100
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+++ {"user_expressions": []}
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Thus, the production possibility frontier for this economy is
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$$
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10d_1 + 500d_2 = x_0
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$$
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## Prices
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{cite}`DoSSo` argue that relative prices of the $n$ produced goods must satisfy
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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p_1 = a_{11}p_1 + a_{21}p_2 + a_{01}w \\
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$$
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More generally,
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$$
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p = A' p + a_0 w
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$$
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Recall the [Neumann Series Lemma](link to eigenvalues lecture) which states that $L$ exists if the spectral radius $r(A)<1$.
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In fact,
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In fact
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$$
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L = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} A^i
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$$
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Gross output shifts from $x_0 = Ld_0$ to $x_1 = Ld_1$.
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If $r(A) < 1$ then a solution exists and thus we yield
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If $r(A) < 1$ then a solution exists and
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$$
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\Delta x = L \Delta d = \Delta d + A(\Delta d) + A^2 (\Delta d) + \cdots
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$$
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E = \{(i,j) \in V \times V : a_{ij}>0\}
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$$
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In {ref}`us_15sectors` weights are indicated by the widths of the arrows, which are proportional to the corresponding input-output coefficients.
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In {numref}`us_15sectors` weights are indicated by the widths of the arrows, which are proportional to the corresponding input-output coefficients.
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We can now use centrality measures to rank sectors and discuss their importance relative to the other sectors.
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### Eigenvector centrality
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Eigenvector centrality of a node $i$ is measured by
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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e_i = \frac{1}{r(A)} \sum_{1 \leq j \leq n} a_{ij} e_j
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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We plot a bar graph of hub-based eigenvector centrality for the sectors represented in {ref}`us_15sectors`.
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We plot a bar graph of hub-based eigenvector centrality for the sectors represented in {numref}`us_15sectors`.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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:tags: [hide-input]
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A demand shock in such sectors will cause a large impact on the whole production network.
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The following figure displays the output multipliers for the sectors represented
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in {ref}`us_15sectors`.
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in {numref}`us_15sectors`.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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:tags: [hide-input]
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