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A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR), Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-08-30","journal":"PLoS medicine (Public Library of Science)","volume":"2","issue":"8","firstPage":"e124","lastPage":"e124","references":["W2060512257","W2063068713","W2035314238","W1995461240","W2055157368","W4300811467","W2000442546","W2109363337","W2023839473","W1979423827","W1551600243","W2062248680","W1715602942","W1690786713","W2142960568","W1988934365","W2025651303","W2046875666","W2094934696","W1996647803","W2106631668","W2163139471","W2158304798","W2133774931","W2135010675","W2102945991","W1575982426","W1986360186","W2167098291","W2091947792",null,"W1982375973","W2006825115","W2126436234","W1965992514","W2144659346","W2081814119"],"referencesCount":37,"citationsCount":7432,"abstract":"There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.","isRetracted":false,"isSource":true,"customListOfReferences":["pmid:11302887","pmid:15158637","pmid:15158638","pmid:15705458","pmid:11600885","pmid:12642066","pmid:12727138","pmid:15705441","pmid:11159626","pmid:15026468","pmid:10866211","ISBN-13-978-0195083774","pmid:15470193","pmid:6528136","pmid:10694730","pmid:7618077","pmid:10521349","pmid:11323066","pmid:15545678","pmid:10532877","pmid:10584742","pmid:10789670","pmid:10755072","pmid:8015123","pmid:15161896","pmid:9693346","pmid:11405896","pmid:1535110","pmid:15878467","pmid:14602436","pmid:15057290","10.1093/BIOMET/44.1-2.187","10.1093/BIOMET/44.3-4.533","pmid:11434499","10.1056/NEJME048225","pmid:16014596","pmid:14584715"]},"input":[{"id":"W2060512257","numberInSourceReferences":32,"doi":"10.1093/BIOMET/44.1-2.187","type":"article","title":"A STATISTICAL PARADOX","authors":[{"id":"A5011148732","LN":"Lindley","FN":"D. V.","affil":"University of Cambridge (GB)"}],"year":1957,"date":"1957-01-01","journal":"Biometrika (Oxford University Press)","volume":"44","issue":"1-2","firstPage":"187","lastPage":"192","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":864,"abstract":"A STATISTICAL PARADOX Get access D. V. LINDLEY D. V. LINDLEY Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Biometrika, Volume 44, Issue 1-2, June 1957, Pages 187–192, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/44.1-2.187 Published: 01 June 1957","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2063068713","numberInSourceReferences":33,"doi":"10.1093/BIOMET/44.3-4.533","type":"article","title":"A comment on D. V. Lindley's statistical paradox","authors":[{"id":"A5014487166","LN":"Bartlett","FN":"M. S.","affil":"University of Manchester (GB)"}],"year":1957,"date":"1957-12-01","journal":"Biometrika (Oxford University Press)","volume":"44","issue":"3-4","firstPage":"533","lastPage":"534","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":285,"abstract":"A comment on D. V. Lindley's statistical paradox M. S. BARTLETT M. S. BARTLETT University of Manchester Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Biometrika, Volume 44, Issue 3-4, December 1957, Pages 533–534, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/44.3-4.533 Published: 01 December 1957","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2035314238","numberInSourceReferences":28,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.1992.03490020088036","type":"article","title":"A Comparison of Results of Meta-analyses of Randomized Control Trials and Recommendations of Clinical Experts","authors":[{"id":"A5027984327","LN":"Antman","FN":"Elliot M.","affil":"Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)"},{"id":"A5053201045","LN":"Lau","FN":"Joseph"},{"id":"A5006086380","LN":"Kupelnick","FN":"Bruce"},{"id":"A5038539972","LN":"Mosteller","FN":"Frederick"},{"id":"A5065357436","LN":"Chalmers","FN":"Thomas C."}],"year":1992,"date":"1992-07-08","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"268","issue":"2","firstPage":"240","lastPage":"240","references":["W1213947386","W1548990295","W1549654956","W1593007285","W176593611","W1920261218","W193109499","W1965253098","W1966953116","W1970046651","W1980070989","W1980300818","W1982070737","W1985177680","W2002550734","W2010925839","W2013989264","W2026815148","W2026858889","W2029390260","W2037219714","W2041762724","W2059356295","W2063977887","W2066328761","W2067550511","W2069256497","W2070914305","W2075054015","W2075541661","W2079523346","W2079731097","W2093437752","W2094153875","W2098302332","W2105494532","W2106230861","W2134609438","W2136983298","W2153847891","W2159418813","W2160889529","W2320350515","W2330737959","W2335979330","W2409943875","W2415005307","W2416131376","W2427090023","W2614168425"],"referencesCount":50,"citationsCount":1287,"abstract":"<h3>Objective.</h3> —To examine the temporal relationship between accumulating data from randomized control trials of treatments for myocardial infarction and the recommendations of clinical experts writing review articles and textbook chapters. <h3>Data Sources.</h3> —(1) MEDLINE search from 1966 to present; search terms used were<i>myocardial infarction, clinical trials, multicenter studies, double-blind method, meta-analysis</i>, and the text word \"random:\"; (2) references from pertinent articles and books; and (3) all editions of English-language general medical texts and manuals and review articles on treatment of myocardial infarction. <h3>Study Selection.</h3> —Randomized control trials of therapies for reducing the risk of total mortality in myocardial infarction (acute and secondary prevention). Review articles and textbook chapters dealing with the general clinical management of patients with myocardial infarction. <h3>Data Extraction.</h3> —Two authors read the material and recorded the results; disagreements were resolved by conference. <h3>Data Synthesis.</h3> —We used the technique of cumulative meta-analysis (performing a new meta-analysis when the results of a new clinical trial are published) and compared the results with the recommendations of the experts for various treatments for myocardial infarction. Discrepancies were detected between the meta-analytic patterns of effectiveness in the randomized trials and the recommendations of reviewers. Review articles often failed to mention important advances or exhibited delays in recommending effective preventive measures. In some cases, treatments that have no effect on mortality or are potentially harmful continued to be recommended by several clinical experts. <h3>Conclusions.</h3> —Finding and analyzing all therapeutic trials in a given field has become such a difficult and specialized task that the clinical experts called on to summarize the evidence in a timely fashion need access to better databases and new statistical techniques to assist them in this important task. (<i>JAMA</i>. 1992;268:240-248)","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1995461240","numberInSourceReferences":24,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.1994.03520020055015","type":"article","title":"Transfer of Technology From Statistical Journals to the Biomedical Literature","authors":[{"id":"A5042962646","orcid":"0000-0002-7183-4083","LN":"Altman","FN":"Douglas G."}],"year":1994,"date":"1994-07-13","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"272","issue":"2","firstPage":"129","lastPage":"129","references":["W117331136","W123164946","W1516550645","W192975702","W1975328618","W1977062600","W1978136073","W1979300931","W1991311566","W1993542511","W1999822728","W2014530124","W2015795623","W2020999234","W2035064373","W2038252730","W2049633694","W2053154970","W2057060986","W2104960492","W2117897510","W2132421073","W2133750711","W2139984188","W2150000105","W2157825442","W2166163519","W2323845704","W2330813625","W2797583072","W2936971519","W2973543785","W2995133996","W3035751571","W3085162807","W67356013"],"referencesCount":36,"citationsCount":76,"abstract":"To investigate the speed of the transfer of new statistical methods into the medical literature and, on the basis of current data, to predict what methods medical journal editors should expect to see in the next decade.Influential statistical articles were identified and the time pattern of citations in the medical literature was ascertained. In addition, longitudinal studies of the statistical content of articles in medical journals were reviewed.Cumulative number of citations in medical journals of each article in the years after publication.Annual citations show some evidence of decreasing lag times between the introduction of new statistical methods and their appearance in medical journals. Newer technical innovations still typically take 4 to 6 years before they achieve 25 citations in the medical literature. Few methodological advances of the 1980s seem yet to have been widely cited in medical journals. Longitudinal studies indicate a large increase in the use of more complex statistical methods.Time trends suggest that technology diffusion has speeded up during the last 30 years, although there is still a lag of several years before medical citations begin to accrue. Journals should expect to see more articles using increasingly sophisticated methods. Medical journals may need to modify reviewing procedures to deal with articles using these complex new methods.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2055157368","numberInSourceReferences":26,"doi":"10.1159/000012281","type":"article","title":"Scientific Journals and Their Authors’ Financial Interests: A Pilot Study","authors":[{"id":"A5083994168","orcid":"0000-0002-0647-9951","LN":"Krimsky","FN":"Sheldon"},{"id":"A5067765280","LN":"Rothenberg","FN":"Leslie Steven","affil":"University of California, Los Angeles (US)"},{"id":"A5082058741","LN":"Stott","FN":"Peter A.","affil":"Tufts University (US)"},{"id":"A5085521985","orcid":"0000-0002-6944-9020","LN":"Kyle","FN":"Gerard T.","affil":"Office of Technology Transfer (US), Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)"}],"year":1998,"date":"1998-01-01","journal":"Psychotherapy and psychosomatics (Karger Publishers)","volume":"67","issue":"4-5","firstPage":"194","lastPage":"201","references":["W1608969291","W2323506210","W2394622560","W4247881645"],"referencesCount":4,"citationsCount":92,"abstract":"&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; The credibility of modern science is grounded on the perception of the objectivity of its scientists, but that credibility can be undermined by financial conflicts of interest. The US Public Health Service and the National Science Foundation issued regulations effective October 1, 1995, regarding the disclosure of financial interests in the submission of grant proposals. Several scientific journals have also established pertinent policies for authors and editors. The objectives of this study were: (1) to select a set of published articles and observe the degree to which a sample of authors hold a financial interest in areas related to their research that are reportable under current standards, and (2) to examine the hypothesis that significant numbers of authors of articles in life science and biomedical journals have verifiable financial interests that might be important for journal editors and readers to know. This paper measures the frequency of selected financial interests held among lead authors of certain types of scientific publications and assesses disclosure practices of authors and journals. &lt;b&gt;Method:&lt;/b&gt; These objectives were applied to a pilot study of Massachusetts academic scientists who were cited as first or last author in at least one article published in 1992 in 14 leading journals of cell or molecular biology and medicine. We created a database of every original article published in 1992 by 14 leading life science and biomedical journals, supplemented by data sets consisting of (1) Massachusetts biotechnology firms, including their officers and scientific advisory boards, and (2) scientists listed as inventors on patents or patent applications registered with the World Intellectual Property Organization. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; We examined 1,105 university authors (first and last cited) from Massachusetts institutions whose 789 articles, published in 1992, appeared in 14 scientific and medical journals. Authors are said to ‘possess a financial interest’ if they are listed as inventors in a patent or patent application closely related to their published work; serve on a scientific advisory board of a biotechnology company; or are officers, directors, or major shareholders (beneficial owner of 10% or more of stock issued) in a firm that has commercial interests related to their research. Applying the criteria to the reference population of journals and Massachusetts academic authors, we measured the following frequencies for lead authors: 0.20 for serving on a scientific advisory board; 0.07 for being an officer, director, or major shareholder in a biotechnology firm, and 0.22 for being listed as an inventor in a related patent or patent application. The joint frequency of articles in the journals reviewed with a lead author that meets one of the three conditions is 0.34. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; One of every three articles in our sample has at least one Massachusetts-based author with a financial interest, and 15% of the authors in our sample have a financial interest relevant to one of their publications. For the year 1992, the rate of published voluntary disclosures of financial interest (as defined in our study) is virtually zero, but relatively few scientific and biomedical journals at that time required any such disclosure to journal editors and reviewers. Further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of mandatory disclosure requirements by some journals.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W4300811467","numberInSourceReferences":20,"type":"article","title":"ICH Harmonised Tripartite Guideline. Statistical principles for clinical trials. International Conference on Harmonisation E9 Expert Working Group.","authors":[],"year":1999,"date":"1999-08-15","journal":"PubMed (National Institutes of Health)","volume":"18","issue":"15","firstPage":"1905","lastPage":"42","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":194,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2000442546","numberInSourceReferences":21,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(99)04149-5","type":"article","title":"Improving the quality of reports of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials: the QUOROM statement","authors":[{"id":"A5068353058","orcid":"0000-0003-2434-4206","LN":"Moher","FN":"David","affil":"Chalmers University of Technology (SE), University of Ottawa (CA)"},{"id":"A5084752934","orcid":"0000-0002-4087-543X","LN":"Cook","FN":"Deborah J.","affil":"McMaster University (CA)"},{"id":"A5032705289","LN":"Eastwood","FN":"Susan","affil":"University of California, San Francisco (US)"},{"id":"A5013693751","LN":"Olkin","FN":"Ingram","affil":"Stanford University (US)"},{"id":"A5035229913","LN":"Rennie","FN":"Drummond"},{"id":"A5068936587","LN":"Stroup","FN":"Donna F.","affil":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)"}],"year":1999,"date":"1999-11-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"354","issue":"9193","firstPage":"1896","lastPage":"1900","references":["W1492124229","W1511524925","W1572929322","W1662847494","W1822304021","W1887056411","W1974357211","W1978868802","W1980300818","W1982716565","W1986215651","W1999564923","W2033238186","W2034992074","W2037256959","W2057806510","W2067550511","W2083923088","W2092233783","W2093541354","W2097110957","W2101299963","W2109481947","W2112339576","W2116446898","W2129829737","W2132645472","W2134338262","W2140359845","W2144578562","W2158767537","W2168226052","W2328451703","W4214559180","W4233568880","W4233954896","W4239527626","W4297063083","W62078659"],"referencesCount":39,"citationsCount":4490,"abstract":"The Quality of Reporting of Meta-analyses (QUOROM) conference was convened to address standards for improving the quality of reporting of meta-analyses of clinical randomised controlled trials (RCTs).The QUOROM group consisted of 30 clinical epidemiologists, clinicians, statisticians, editors, and researchers. In conference, the group was asked to identify items they thought should be included in a checklist of standards. Whenever possible, checklist items were guided by research evidence suggesting that failure to adhere to the item proposed could lead to biased results. A modified Delphi technique was used in assessing candidate items.The conference resulted in the QUOROM statement, a checklist, and a flow diagram. The checklist describes our preferred way to present the abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion sections of a report of a meta-analysis. It is organised into 21 headings and subheadings regarding searches, selection, validity assessment, data abstraction, study characteristics, and quantitative data synthesis, and in the results with \"trial flow\", study characteristics, and quantitative data synthesis; research documentation was identified for eight of the 18 items. The flow diagram provides information about both the numbers of RCTs identified, included, and excluded and the reasons for exclusion of trials.We hope this report will generate further thought about ways to improve the quality of reports of meta-analyses of RCTs and that interested readers, reviewers, researchers, and editors will use the QUOROM statement and generate ideas for its improvement.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2109363337","numberInSourceReferences":17,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.286.5439.531","type":"article","title":"Molecular Classification of Cancer: Class Discovery and Class Prediction by Gene Expression Monitoring","authors":[{"id":"A5001449157","LN":"Golub","FN":"Todd R.","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (US), Harvard University (US)"},{"id":"A5074883462","orcid":"0000-0003-3357-437X","LN":"Slonim","FN":"Donna K.","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5017114712","orcid":"0000-0002-9360-4668","LN":"Tamayo","FN":"Pablo","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5085557525","LN":"Huard","FN":"Christine","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5091848368","LN":"Gaasenbeek","FN":"Michelle","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5077622597","orcid":"0000-0002-9755-2818","LN":"Mesirov","FN":"Jill P.","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5046514514","orcid":"0000-0003-0992-6494","LN":"Coller","FN":"Hilary A.","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"},{"id":"A5010840699","orcid":"0000-0003-4099-4700","LN":"Loh","FN":"Mignon L.","affil":"Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (US), Harvard University (US)"},{"id":"A5015143631","LN":"Downing","FN":"James R.","affil":"St. Jude Children's Research Hospital (US)"},{"id":"A5001226520","LN":"Caligiuri","FN":"M. A."},{"id":"A5053276934","LN":"Bloomfield","FN":"CD"},{"id":"A5020748592","orcid":"0000-0003-2662-4631","LN":"Lander","FN":"Eric S.","affil":"Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research (US), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)"}],"year":1999,"date":"1999-10-15","journal":"Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)","volume":"286","issue":"5439","firstPage":"531","lastPage":"537","references":["W1549755081","W1740534","W1962281270","W1966155043","W1970480339","W1999389174","W2007452752","W2008018118","W201109108","W2017566938","W2030958510","W2032972450","W2035450351","W2044293502","W2045066046","W2052207224","W2052611128","W2058046174","W2063185439","W2069271664","W2079501979","W2087810003","W2103453943","W2109970232","W2135187880","W2155174287","W2159977826","W2171482205","W2317345315","W2328999771","W2337330566","W238668910","W2401349765","W2413172769","W34954710","W4231406790","W4239897690","W4242108431","W4243195610","W4247420482","W4298768982","W98935968"],"referencesCount":42,"citationsCount":10943,"abstract":"Although cancer classification has improved over the past 30 years, there has been no general approach for identifying new cancer classes (class discovery) or for assigning tumors to known classes (class prediction). Here, a generic approach to cancer classification based on gene expression monitoring by DNA microarrays is described and applied to human acute leukemias as a test case. A class discovery procedure automatically discovered the distinction between acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) without previous knowledge of these classes. An automatically derived class predictor was able to determine the class of new leukemia cases. The results demonstrate the feasibility of cancer classification based solely on gene expression monitoring and suggest a general strategy for discovering and predicting cancer classes for other types of cancer, independent of previous biological knowledge.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2023839473","numberInSourceReferences":23,"doi":"10.1192/BJP.176.3.249","type":"article","title":"Unpublished rating scales: A major source of bias in randomised controlled trials of treatments for schizophrenia","authors":[{"id":"A5013192737","LN":"Marshall","FN":"Max","affil":"University of Manchester (GB)"},{"id":"A5080097634","LN":"Lockwood","FN":"Austin","affil":"University of Manchester (GB)"},{"id":"A5060202186","LN":"Bradley","FN":"Caroline","affil":"University of Oxford (GB)"},{"id":"A5085074957","LN":"Adams","FN":"Clive E","affil":"Cochrane (GB)"},{"id":"A5091162117","LN":"Joy","FN":"CB","affil":"Cochrane (GB)"},{"id":"A5075924030","LN":"Fenton","FN":"Mark","affil":"Cochrane (GB)"}],"year":2000,"date":"2000-03-01","journal":"British journal of psychiatry (Cambridge University Press)","volume":"176","issue":"3","firstPage":"249","lastPage":"252","references":["W1993398606","W2112249411","W2164777277","W4233954896"],"referencesCount":4,"citationsCount":842,"abstract":"Background A recent review suggested an association between using unpublished scales in clinical trials and finding significant results. Aims To determine whether such an association existed in schizophrenia trials. Method Three hundred trials were randomly selected from the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Register. All comparisons between treatment groups and control groups using rating scales were identified. The publication status of each scale was determined and claims of a significant treatment effect were recorded. Results Trials were more likely to report that a treatment was superior to control when an unpublished scale was used to make the comparison (relative risk 1.37 (95% C11.12–1.68)). This effect increased when a ‘gold-standard’ definition of treatment superiority was applied (RR 1.94 (95% C11.35–2.79)). In non-pharmacological trials, one-third of ‘gold-standard’ claims of treatment superiority would not have been made if published scales had been used. Conclusions Unpublished scales are a source of bias in schizophrenia trials.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1979423827","numberInSourceReferences":22,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.283.15.2008","type":"article","title":"Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology&lt;SUBTITLE&gt;A Proposal for Reporting&lt;/SUBTITLE&gt;","authors":[{"id":"A5068936587","LN":"Stroup","FN":"Donna F."}],"year":2000,"date":"2000-04-19","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"283","issue":"15","firstPage":"2008","lastPage":"2008","references":["W1662847494","W1894101563","W1917457462","W1969084311","W1978868802","W1984115673","W1990496960","W1994959188","W1999649023","W2000442546","W2002089898","W2006546769","W2014871413","W2032458802","W2032995180","W2033238186","W2051556928","W2060632178","W2082942950","W2112339576","W2125297083","W2132515772","W2134338262","W2151684674","W2158767537","W2977262736"],"referencesCount":26,"citationsCount":17873,"abstract":"Because of the pressure for timely, informed decisions in public health and clinical practice and the explosion of information in the scientific literature, research results must be synthesized. Meta-analyses are increasingly used to address this problem, and they often evaluate observational studies. A workshop was held in Atlanta, Ga, in April 1997, to examine the reporting of meta-analyses of observational studies and to make recommendations to aid authors, reviewers, editors, and readers.Twenty-seven participants were selected by a steering committee, based on expertise in clinical practice, trials, statistics, epidemiology, social sciences, and biomedical editing. Deliberations of the workshop were open to other interested scientists. Funding for this activity was provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on the conduct and reporting of meta-analyses in observational studies using MEDLINE, Educational Research Information Center (ERIC), PsycLIT, and the Current Index to Statistics. We also examined reference lists of the 32 studies retrieved and contacted experts in the field. Participants were assigned to small-group discussions on the subjects of bias, searching and abstracting, heterogeneity, study categorization, and statistical methods.From the material presented at the workshop, the authors developed a checklist summarizing recommendations for reporting meta-analyses of observational studies. The checklist and supporting evidence were circulated to all conference attendees and additional experts. All suggestions for revisions were addressed.The proposed checklist contains specifications for reporting of meta-analyses of observational studies in epidemiology, including background, search strategy, methods, results, discussion, and conclusion. Use of the checklist should improve the usefulness of meta-analyses for authors, reviewers, editors, readers, and decision makers. An evaluation plan is suggested and research areas are explored.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1551600243","numberInSourceReferences":11,"doi":"10.1038/35015718","type":"article","title":"Searching for genetic determinants in the new millennium","authors":[{"id":"A5085936676","orcid":"0000-0002-4126-2061","LN":"Risch","FN":"Neil","affil":"Stanford University (US)"}],"year":2000,"date":"2000-06-01","journal":"Nature (Nature Portfolio)","volume":"405","issue":"6788","firstPage":"847","lastPage":"856","references":["W127014378","W1557152547","W1711580613","W1963936426","W1968664402","W1976741643","W1981508667","W1984236058","W1984737558","W1998915014","W2000848664","W2002605005","W2002835979","W2008047653","W2012768252","W2042103448","W2051008597","W2059543915","W2061784450","W2074754379","W2089221493","W2091912105","W2093282076","W2094021406","W2096051150","W2116329478","W2117359474","W2120329743","W2124277514","W2160782760","W2169556112","W2268513284","W2396140944","W2578765318","W4240660705","W4254753097"],"referencesCount":36,"citationsCount":1794,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2062248680","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1136/BMJ.322.7291.879","type":"article","title":"Any casualties in the clash of randomised and observational evidence?","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts University (US), University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-04-14","journal":"BMJ. British medical journal (BMJ)","volume":"322","issue":"7291","firstPage":"879","lastPage":"880","references":["W113714250","W1525444530","W1580457945","W2018152980","W2024119733","W2091031254","W2319983832","W2616141209"],"referencesCount":8,"citationsCount":99,"abstract":"Randomised controlled trials and observational studies are often seen as mutually exclusive, if not opposing, methods of clinical research. Two recent reports, however, identified clinical questions (19 in one report,1 five in the other2) where both randomised trials and observational methods had been used to evaluate the same question, and performed a head to head comparison of them. In contrast to the belief that randomised controlled trials are more reliable estimators of how much a treatment works, both reports found that observational studies did not overestimate the size of the treatment effect compared with their randomised counterparts. The authors say that the merits of well designed observational studies may need to be re-evaluated: case-control and cohort studies may need to assume more respect in assessing medical therapies and largescale observational databases should be better exploited. 1 2 The first claim flies in the face of half a century of thinking, so are these authors right?\n\nThe combined results from the two reports indeed show a striking concordance between the estimates obtained with the two research designs. A correlation analysis we performed on their combined databases found that the correlation coefficient between the odds ratio of randomised trials and the odds ratio of observational designs is 0.84 (P<0.001). This represents excellent concordance …","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1715602942","numberInSourceReferences":27,"doi":"10.1186/1471-2288-1-3","type":"article","title":"Reporting of conflicts of interest in guidelines of preventive and therapeutic interventions","authors":[{"id":"A5030045144","LN":"Papanikolaou","FN":"George N","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5066307658","LN":"Baltogianni","FN":"Maria","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5044640221","orcid":"0000-0002-1918-8918","LN":"Contopoulos‐Ioannidis","FN":"Despina G.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5088712364","orcid":"0000-0001-5100-8799","LN":"Haidich","FN":"Anna‐Bettina","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5048406757","LN":"Giannakakis","FN":"I","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-06-04","journal":"BMC Medical research methodology (BioMed Central)","volume":"1","issue":"1","firstPage":null,"lastPage":null,"references":["W1963719743","W1969005929","W1970259524","W1992123992","W1994106893","W1997629488","W2000034135","W2018684711","W202007523","W2028339881","W2039608313","W2054190773","W2055157368","W2074656045","W2085712408","W2150798407","W2160887918","W2330587574","W25364409"],"referencesCount":19,"citationsCount":56,"abstract":"Guidelines published in major medical journals are very influential in determining clinical practice. It would be essential to evaluate whether conflicts of interests are disclosed in these publications. We evaluated the reporting of conflicts of interest and the factors that may affect such disclosure in a sample of 191 guidelines on therapeutic and/or preventive measures published in 6 major clinical journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, Pediatrics) in 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994 and 1999.Only 7 guidelines (3.7%) mentioned conflicts of interest and all were published in 1999 (17.5% (7/40) of guidelines published in 1999 alone). Reporting of conflicts of interest differed significantly by journal (p=0.026), availability of disclosure policy by the journal (p=0.043), source of funding (p < 0.001) and number of authors (p=0.004). In the entire database of 191 guidelines, a mere 18 authors disclosed a total of 24 potential conflicts of interest and most pertained to minor issues.Despite some recent improvement, reporting of conflicts of interest in clinical guidelines published in influential journals is largely neglected.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1690786713","numberInSourceReferences":5,"doi":"10.1038/NG749","type":"article","title":"Replication validity of genetic association studies","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5068104991","orcid":"0000-0003-3712-4181","LN":"Ntzani","FN":"Evangelia","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5062268434","orcid":"0000-0002-3990-1848","LN":"Trikalinos","FN":"Thomas A","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5044640221","orcid":"0000-0002-1918-8918","LN":"Contopoulos‐Ioannidis","FN":"Despina G.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-10-15","journal":"Nature genetics (Nature Portfolio)","volume":"29","issue":"3","firstPage":"306","lastPage":"309","references":["W1494899399","W1516091509","W1542543893","W1881403029","W1959180419","W1974975370","W1982228885","W1997397524","W1997405783","W1999649023","W2018152980","W2023598977","W2026714127","W2068959829","W2103718021","W2107328434","W2112339576","W2169675077","W2330399732","W4231082634","W4298222310","W89469075"],"referencesCount":22,"citationsCount":1739,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2142960568","numberInSourceReferences":18,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(00)04337-3","type":"article","title":"The CONSORT statement: revised recommendations for improving the quality of reports of parallel-group randomised trials","authors":[{"id":"A5068353058","orcid":"0000-0003-2434-4206","LN":"Moher","FN":"David","affil":"University of Ottawa (CA)"},{"id":"A5056315210","orcid":"0000-0003-2596-7616","LN":"Schulz","FN":"Kenneth F.","affil":"Family Health International 360 (US), University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)"},{"id":"A5042962646","orcid":"0000-0002-7183-4083","LN":"Altman","FN":"Douglas G."}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-04-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"357","issue":"9263","firstPage":"1191","lastPage":"1194","references":["W1517800497","W1580484836","W1976529478","W1979423827","W1984052453","W1987186637","W2000442546","W2030403882","W2030958316","W2032525770","W2033156884","W2056590595","W2073286608","W2074730588","W2077862869","W2094302749","W2110841701","W2134338262","W2135444901","W2141487393","W2147581820","W4214559180","W4233954896"],"referencesCount":23,"citationsCount":3987,"abstract":"To comprehend the results of a randomised controlled trial (RCT), readers must understand its design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation. That goal can be achieved only through total transparency from authors. Despite several decades of educational efforts, the reporting of RCTs needs improvement. Investigators and editors developed the original CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to help authors improve reporting by use of a checklist and flow diagram. The revised CONSORT statement presented here incorporates new evidence and addresses some criticisms of the original statement. The checklist items pertain to the content of the Title, Abstract, Introduction, Methods, Results, and Discussion. The revised checklist includes 22 items selected because empirical evidence indicates that not reporting this information is associated with biased estimates of treatment effect, or because the information is essential to judge the reliability or relevance of the findings. We intended the flow diagram to depict the passage of participants through an RCT. The revised flow diagram depicts information from four stages of a trial (enrolment, intervention allocation, followup, and analysis). The diagram explicitly shows the number of participants, for each intervention group, included in the primary data analysis. Inclusion of these numbers allows the reader to judge whether the authors have done an intentionto- treat analysis. In sum, the CONSORT statement is intended to improve the reporting of an RCT, enabling readers to understand a trial's conduct and to assess the validity of its results.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1988934365","numberInSourceReferences":34,"doi":"10.1080/135952201753172953","type":"article","title":"Two cheers for P-values?","authors":[{"id":"A5006700282","orcid":"0000-0002-7558-8473","LN":"Senn","FN":"Stephen","affil":"University College London (GB)"}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-03-01","journal":"Journal of epidemiology and biostatics (Taylor & Francis)","volume":"6","issue":"2","firstPage":"193","lastPage":"204","references":["W1498066347","W1515242458","W1533179050","W1984486655","W1988804493","W2009512591","W2029868690","W2031775018","W2040809707","W2045638068","W2050283732","W2060512257","W2063068713","W2074466695","W2088979439","W2089984663","W2128585330","W2136634361","W2148279862","W2795767164","W2797043160","W3021826975","W313369389","W43363623"],"referencesCount":24,"citationsCount":97,"abstract":"P-values are a practical success but a critical failure. Scientists the world over use them, but scarcely a statistician can be found to defend them. Bayesians in particular find them ridiculous, but even the modern frequentist has little time for them. In this essay, I consider what, if anything, might be said in their favour.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2025651303","numberInSourceReferences":9,"doi":"10.1136/BMJ.322.7280.226","type":"article","title":"Sifting the evidence---what's wrong with significance tests? Another comment on the role of statistical methods","authors":[{"id":"A5007355729","LN":"Sterne","FN":"J. A. C.","affil":"University of Bristol (GB)"},{"id":"A5013184354","orcid":"0000-0002-1407-8314","LN":"Smith","FN":"George Davey"}],"year":2001,"date":"2001-01-27","journal":"BMJ. British medical journal (BMJ)","volume":"322","issue":"7280","firstPage":"226","lastPage":"231","references":["W1511524680","W1602314741","W1963531169","W1970046651","W1976515488","W1982375973","W2004169137","W2024677559","W2028347055","W2030346622","W2040731063","W2045767629","W2055146603","W2060725328","W2063007022","W2066452727","W2068507580","W2079297380","W2084254640","W2104312285","W2112339576","W2130200633","W2152938409","W2158101358","W2159812347","W2254057084","W2403570937","W2417204581","W34642447","W4250996842"],"referencesCount":30,"citationsCount":1286,"abstract":"The findings of medical research are often met with considerable scepticism, even when they have apparently come from studies with sound methodologies that have been subjected to appropriate statistical analysis. This is perhaps particularly the case with respect to epidemiological findings that suggest that some aspect of everyday life is bad for people. Indeed, one recent popular history, the medical journalist James Le Fanu's The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine , went so far as to suggest that the solution to medicine's ills would be the closure of all departments of epidemiology.1\n\nOne contributory factor is that the medical literature shows a strong tendency to accentuate the positive; positive outcomes are more likely to be reported than null results.2–4 By this means alone a host of purely chance findings will be published, as by conventional reasoning examining 20 associations will produce one result that is “significant at P=0.05” by chance alone. If only positive findings are published then they may be mistakenly considered to be of importance rather than being the necessary chance results produced by the application of criteria for meaningfulness based on statistical significance. As many studies contain long questionnaires collecting information on hundreds of variables, and measure a wide range of potential outcomes, several false positive findings are virtually guaranteed. The high volume and often contradictory nature5 of medical research findings, however, is not only because of publication bias. A more fundamental problem is the widespread misunderstanding of the nature of statistical significance.\n\n#### Summary points\n\nP values, or significance levels, measure the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis; the smaller the P value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis\n\nAn arbitrary division of results, into “significant” or “non-significant” according to the P value, was not the intention of the …","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2046875666","numberInSourceReferences":37,"doi":"10.1081/BIP-120024202","type":"article","title":"Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Number of True Null Hypotheses in Multiplicity Testing","authors":[{"id":"A5049314583","LN":"Hsueh","FN":"Huey‐Miin","affil":"National Chengchi University (TW)"},{"id":"A5051461953","LN":"Chen","FN":"James J.","affil":"National Center for Toxicological Research (US)"},{"id":"A5021079697","LN":"Kodell","FN":"Ralph L.","affil":"National Center for Toxicological Research (US)"}],"year":2003,"date":"2003-01-10","journal":"Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics (Taylor & Francis)","volume":"13","issue":"4","firstPage":"675","lastPage":"689","references":["W14845191","W1933084501","W1986765826","W2045151287","W2057633723","W2057758736","W2062353821","W2105381419","W2110065044","W2123830992","W2143079975","W2212673430","W4205210034","W4294107304"],"referencesCount":14,"citationsCount":106,"abstract":"Abstract When a large number of statistical tests is performed, the chance of false positive findings could increase considerably. The traditional approach is to control the probability of rejecting at least one true null hypothesis, the familywise error rate (FWE). To improve the power of detecting treatment differences, an alternative approach is to control the expected proportion of errors among the rejected hypotheses, the false discovery rate (FDR). When some of the hypotheses are not true, the error rate from either the FWE- or the FDR-controlling procedure is usually lower than the designed level. This paper compares five methods used to estimate the number of true null hypotheses over a large number of hypotheses. The estimated number of true null hypotheses is then used to improve the power of FWE- or FDR-controlling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of these methods. The lowest slope method, developed by Benjamini and Hochberg (2000) on the adaptive control of the FDR in multiple testing with independent statistics, and the mean of differences method appear to perform the best. These two methods control the FWE properly when the number of nontrue null hypotheses is small. A data set from a toxicogenomic microarray experiment is used for illustration.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2094934696","numberInSourceReferences":7,"doi":"10.1016/S1471-4914(03)00030-3","type":"article","title":"Genetic associations: false or true?","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A."}],"year":2003,"date":"2003-04-01","journal":"Trends in molecular medicine (Elsevier BV)","volume":"9","issue":"4","firstPage":"135","lastPage":"138","references":["W1690786713","W1979423827","W1979804577","W1982228885","W1987878615","W2010415533","W2018152980","W2061008984","W2065435420","W2068959829","W2103718021","W2108024903","W2112339576","W2139000771","W2162235775","W2320350515","W4243579364"],"referencesCount":17,"citationsCount":263,"abstract":"Genetic association studies for multigenetic diseases are like fishing for the truth in a sea of trillions of candidate analyses. Red herrings are unavoidably common, and bias might cause serious misconceptions. However, a sizeable proportion of identified genetic associations are probably true. Meta-analysis, a rigorous, comprehensive, quantitative synthesis of all the available data, might help us to separate the true from the false.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1996647803","numberInSourceReferences":30,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14686-7","type":"article","title":"Predictive ability of DNA microarrays for cancer outcomes and correlates: an empirical assessment","authors":[{"id":"A5068104991","orcid":"0000-0003-3712-4181","LN":"Ntzani","FN":"Evangelia","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US), University of Ioannina (GR), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR)"}],"year":2003,"date":"2003-11-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"362","issue":"9394","firstPage":"1439","lastPage":"1444","references":["W1544923801","W1567567318","W1690786713","W1976088315","W1994880204","W2030165415","W2043235003","W2043856222","W2044929805","W2053818267","W2056577131","W2056654393","W2074228092","W2077421021","W2091619551","W2094613397","W2126436234","W2144935164","W2162235775","W2166190184","W2166478128"],"referencesCount":21,"citationsCount":305,"abstract":"Background DNA microarrays are being used for many applications, including the prediction of cancer outcomes by simultaneous analysis of the expression of thousands of genes. We systematically assessed the predictive performance of this method for major clinical outcomes (death, metastasis, recurrence, response to therapy) and the correlation of gene profiling with other clinicopathological correlates of malignant disorders. Methods Eligible reports retrieved from MEDLINE (1995 to April, 2003) were assessed for features of study design, reported predictive performance, and consideration of other prognostic factors. We searched for study variables that increased the chances that a significant association with a clinical outcome or correlate would be found. Findings 84 eligible studies were identified, of which 30 addressed major clinical outcomes. A median of 25 (IQR 15–45) patients with cancer were included. Among the studies of major clinical outcomes, nine did cross-validation but it was complete in only two of them; six studies used independent validation of supervised predictive models. Smaller studies showed better sensitivity and specificity for clinical outcomes than larger studies. Only 11 studies addressing major clinical outcomes did subgroup or adjusted analyses for other prognostic factors. Across all 84 studies, significant associations were 3·5 (95% CI 1·5–8·0) times more likely per doubling of sample size and 9·7 (2·0–47·0) times more likely per ten-fold increase in microarray probes. Interpretation DNA microarrays addressing cancer outcomes show variable prognostic performance. Larger studies with appropriate clinical design, adjustment for known predictors, and proper validation are essential for this highly promising technology.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2106631668","numberInSourceReferences":6,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(03)12715-8","type":"article","title":"Problems of reporting genetic associations with complex outcomes","authors":[{"id":"A5005414020","orcid":"0000-0002-8345-3288","LN":"Colhoun","FN":"Helen M.","affil":"University College London (GB)"},{"id":"A5039750697","orcid":"0000-0002-5217-1034","LN":"McKeigue","FN":"Paul","affil":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)"},{"id":"A5013184354","orcid":"0000-0002-1407-8314","LN":"Smith","FN":"George Davey","affil":"University of Bristol (GB)"}],"year":2003,"date":"2003-03-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"361","issue":"9360","firstPage":"865","lastPage":"872","references":["W1522239197","W1541152614","W1583476286","W1690786713","W1963936426","W1964871265","W1971604012","W1976741643","W1976943968","W1977057551","W1977958337","W1982733535","W1990250261","W1993671038","W1994834210","W1998578820","W2001587667","W2009213685","W2013688320","W2014271461","W2018480908","W2019860224","W2025306791","W2025651303","W2033240204","W2033360275","W2042103448","W2056924301","W2057420075","W2060015298","W2074296111","W2090897293","W2095186368","W2095833232","W2098980155","W2109921650","W2110343195","W2123184366","W2128365639","W2128463395","W2134070988","W2145124350","W2152445275","W2152924180","W2154549963","W2157823046","W2214291492","W2230430502","W2254057084","W2319089463","W4230993889","W4252173430","W4253515115"],"referencesCount":53,"citationsCount":1155,"abstract":"Inability to replicate many results has led to increasing scepticism about the value of simple association study designs for detection of genetic variants contributing to common complex traits. Much attention has been drawn to the problems that might, in theory, bedevil this approach, including confounding from population structure, misclassification of outcome, and allelic heterogeneity. Other researchers have argued that absence of replication may indicate true heterogeneity in gene-disease associations. We suggest that the most important factors underlying inability to replicate these associations are publication bias, failure to attribute results to chance, and inadequate sample sizes, problems that are all rectifiable. Without changes to present practice, we risk wastage of scientific effort and rejection of a potentially useful research strategy.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2163139471","numberInSourceReferences":3,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16261-2","type":"article","title":"When are observational studies as credible as randomised trials?","authors":[{"id":"A5014844709","orcid":"0000-0001-5668-6716","LN":"Vandenbroucke","FN":"Jan P.","affil":"Leiden University (NL)"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-05-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"363","issue":"9422","firstPage":"1728","lastPage":"1731","references":["W1891815666","W1923402600","W1976357112","W1982489161","W1996336099","W2003617358","W2008995756","W2022211849","W2032238979","W2037568629","W2055674608","W2064790857","W2106036991","W2150291618","W2340671971","W4240296991"],"referencesCount":16,"citationsCount":473,"abstract":"Observational studies have a record of extremely successful contributions to medicine. They are essential for our knowledge about causes and pathogenesis—eg, genetic, environmental, or infectious causes of disease. Additionally, for medical practice we rely on observational studies of prognosis and diagnosis. Nevertheless, over the past years, we have seen recurrent debates about the merit of observational versus randomised research. The debates have been fuelled recently because of seeming total failures, in which the results of observational studies were completely overturned by randomised studies. Hormone replacement therapy showed protection from myocardial infarction in observational studies, but a small increase was seen in randomised trials; a similar reversal happened for β carotene and lung cancer. Such discrepancies raise the question: in what circumstances can observational comparisons be as convincing as randomised experiments? To answer that question: I will first recall what is expected from randomisation. I will then describe two specific issues, adverse effects of drugs and genetic causes of disease, to elucidate under what circumstances evidence from observational research is as good as that from randomised trials. This description can be generalised to other areas of clinical and epidemiological research, and leads to a proposal for a three-pronged restriction to give observational research the best chance to be as credible as randomised controlled trials. Beyond randomised versus observational studiesIn this week's Lancet, Debbie Lawlor and colleagues and Jan Vandenbroucke discuss the role of observational studies and randomised controlled trials in patient-oriented research. Lawlor and colleagues urge a more careful approach to observational studies, such as adjusting for all measured potential confounding variables, including exposures in early life (or subsequent adult biomarkers), and mathematical sensitivity analyses of unmeasured confounders. Vandenbroucke, addressing the same issue, suggests a three-pronged restriction of observational studies, in terms of research topics (such as adverse events), study design (for types of exposure), and analysis (when adjusting for confounding factors). Full-Text PDF","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2158304798","numberInSourceReferences":2,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16260-0","type":"article","title":"Those confounded vitamins: what can we learn from the differences between observational versus randomised trial evidence?","authors":[{"id":"A5054791973","orcid":"0000-0002-6793-2262","LN":"Lawlor","FN":"Debbie A.","affil":"University of Bristol (GB)"},{"id":"A5013184354","orcid":"0000-0002-1407-8314","LN":"Smith","FN":"George Davey","affil":"University of Bristol (GB)"},{"id":"A5085185873","LN":"Bruckdorfer","FN":"K. Richard","affil":"The Royal Free Hospital (GB), University of London (GB), University College London (GB)"},{"id":"A5023210703","LN":"Kundu","FN":"Devi","affil":"The Royal Free Hospital (GB), University of London (GB), University College London (GB)"},{"id":"A5060634423","LN":"Ebrahim","FN":"Shah","affil":"University of Bristol (GB)"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-05-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"363","issue":"9422","firstPage":"1724","lastPage":"1727","references":["W1525444530","W1970618150","W1972566357","W1995697203","W2004582071","W2028347055","W2031403388","W2036153565","W2071112674","W2081262155","W2081340075","W2100492260","W2106036991","W2112746019","W2134069967","W2214291492","W2315403385","W2329711941","W2334903440","W2971487868"],"referencesCount":20,"citationsCount":395,"abstract":"In observational studies, antioxidant vitamins have been inversely associated with cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. 1 Khaw KT Bingham S Welch A et al. Relation between plasma ascorbic acid and mortality in men and women in EPIC-Norfolk prospective study: a prospective population study. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Lancet. 2001; 357: 657-663 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (452) Google Scholar , 2 Rimm EB Stampfer MJ Ascherio A Giovannuci E Colditz GA Willet WC Vitamin E consumption and the risk of coronary heart disease in men. N Engl J Med. 1993; 328: 1450-1456 Crossref PubMed Scopus (2131) Google Scholar , 3 Stampfer MJ Hennekens CH Manson JE Colditz GA Rosner B Willett WC Vitamin E consumption and the risk of coronary heart disease in women. N Engl J Med. 1993; 328: 1444-1449 Crossref PubMed Scopus (1916) Google Scholar However, well conducted randomised controlled trials have shown that supplementation with antioxidants does not protect against these disorders. 4 The Alpha-Tocopherol Beta Carotene cancer prevention study group The effect of vitamin E and Beta carotene on the incidence of lung cancer and other causes in male smokers. N Engl J Med. 1994; 330: 1029-1035 Crossref PubMed Scopus (4379) Google Scholar The figure, for example, summarises the effects of vitamin C seen in the largest randomised controlled trial to date, 5 Heart Protection Study Collaborative GroupMRC/BHF Heart Protection Study of antioxidant vitamin supplementation in 20536 high-risk individuals: a randomised placebo-controlled trial. Lancet. 2002; 360: 23-33 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (1364) Google Scholar and in a large observational study. 1 Khaw KT Bingham S Welch A et al. Relation between plasma ascorbic acid and mortality in men and women in EPIC-Norfolk prospective study: a prospective population study. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Lancet. 2001; 357: 657-663 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (452) Google Scholar Both these papers were published in The Lancet, both are thought to be methodologically sound, and both are widely cited, yet their conclusions are contradictory. In this example, in the randomised trial vitamin C was part of a multivitamin supplement, whereas in the observational study plasma concentrations of vitamin C were assessed. However, it is difficult to see why a combination of vitamin C with other vitamins should reduce its protective effects, if they were real. Furthermore, in the case of other antioxidant vitamins, notably vitamin E, results of single-factor trials and observational studies show a similar discordance to those seen in our figure for vitamin C. 2 Rimm EB Stampfer MJ Ascherio A Giovannuci E Colditz GA Willet WC Vitamin E consumption and the risk of coronary heart disease in men. N Engl J Med. 1993; 328: 1450-1456 Crossref PubMed Scopus (2131) Google Scholar , 3 Stampfer MJ Hennekens CH Manson JE Colditz GA Rosner B Willett WC Vitamin E consumption and the risk of coronary heart disease in women. N Engl J Med. 1993; 328: 1444-1449 Crossref PubMed Scopus (1916) Google Scholar , 4 The Alpha-Tocopherol Beta Carotene cancer prevention study group The effect of vitamin E and Beta carotene on the incidence of lung cancer and other causes in male smokers. N Engl J Med. 1994; 330: 1029-1035 Crossref PubMed Scopus (4379) Google Scholar Beyond randomised versus observational studiesIn this week's Lancet, Debbie Lawlor and colleagues and Jan Vandenbroucke discuss the role of observational studies and randomised controlled trials in patient-oriented research. Lawlor and colleagues urge a more careful approach to observational studies, such as adjusting for all measured potential confounding variables, including exposures in early life (or subsequent adult biomarkers), and mathematical sensitivity analyses of unmeasured confounders. Vandenbroucke, addressing the same issue, suggests a three-pronged restriction of observational studies, in terms of research topics (such as adverse events), study design (for types of exposure), and analysis (when adjusting for confounding factors). Full-Text PDF","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2133774931","numberInSourceReferences":25,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.291.20.2457","type":"article","title":"Empirical Evidence for Selective Reporting of Outcomes in Randomized Trials","authors":[{"id":"A5031189253","LN":"Chan","FN":"An Wen"},{"id":"A5036345545","LN":"Hrõbjartsson","FN":"Asbjørn"},{"id":"A5017730578","LN":"Haahr","FN":"Mette T"},{"id":"A5002375158","orcid":"0000-0002-2108-7016","LN":"Gøtzsche","FN":"Peter C"},{"id":"A5042962646","orcid":"0000-0002-7183-4083","LN":"Altman","FN":"Douglas G."}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-05-26","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"291","issue":"20","firstPage":"2457","lastPage":"2457","references":["W1501619595","W1526504767","W1595184853","W1895445482","W1966814352","W1971186240","W1977833499","W1978779220","W1986698957","W1993398606","W2007295560","W2010461628","W2040220320","W2062631953","W2069607504","W2081320515","W2081692058","W2087857295","W2089833278","W2105662053","W2116996240","W2132915228","W2142960568","W2147581820","W2395127140","W24088030","W2413709515"],"referencesCount":27,"citationsCount":1654,"abstract":"ContextSelective reporting of outcomes within published studies based on the nature or direction of their results has been widely suspected, but direct evidence of such bias is currently limited to case reports.ObjectiveTo study empirically the extent and nature of outcome reporting bias in a cohort of randomized trials.DesignCohort study using protocols and published reports of randomized trials approved by the Scientific-Ethical Committees for Copenhagen and Frederiksberg, Denmark, in 1994-1995. The number and characteristics of reported and unreported trial outcomes were recorded from protocols, journal articles, and a survey of trialists. An outcome was considered incompletely reported if insufficient data were presented in the published articles for meta-analysis. Odds ratios relating the completeness of outcome reporting to statistical significance were calculated for each trial and then pooled to provide an overall estimate of bias. Protocols and published articles were also compared to identify discrepancies in primary outcomes.Main Outcome MeasuresCompleteness of reporting of efficacy and harm outcomes and of statistically significant vs nonsignificant outcomes; consistency between primary outcomes defined in the most recent protocols and those defined in published articles.ResultsOne hundred two trials with 122 published journal articles and 3736 outcomes were identified. Overall, 50% of efficacy and 65% of harm outcomes per trial were incompletely reported. Statistically significant outcomes had a higher odds of being fully reported compared with nonsignificant outcomes for both efficacy (pooled odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-4.0) and harm (pooled odds ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 1.8-12.0) data. In comparing published articles with protocols, 62% of trials had at least 1 primary outcome that was changed, introduced, or omitted. Eighty-six percent of survey responders (42/49) denied the existence of unreported outcomes despite clear evidence to the contrary.ConclusionsThe reporting of trial outcomes is not only frequently incomplete but also biased and inconsistent with protocols. Published articles, as well as reviews that incorporate them, may therefore be unreliable and overestimate the benefits of an intervention. To ensure transparency, planned trials should be registered and protocols should be made publicly available prior to trial completion.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2135010675","numberInSourceReferences":35,"doi":"10.1056/NEJME048225","type":"article","title":"Clinical Trial Registration: A Statement from the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors","authors":[{"id":"A5007034498","LN":"Angelis","FN":"Catherine De"},{"id":"A5021045413","LN":"Drazen","FN":"Jeffrey M."},{"id":"A5064756982","orcid":"0000-0002-0739-4802","LN":"Frizelle","FN":"Frank"},{"id":"A5066174749","orcid":"0000-0001-8217-7376","LN":"Haug","FN":"Charlotte"},{"id":"A5069736521","LN":"Hoey","FN":"John"},{"id":"A5082599575","orcid":"0000-0003-1792-5408","LN":"Horton","FN":"Richard"},{"id":"A5024546430","LN":"Kotzin","FN":"Sheldon"},{"id":"A5007419827","orcid":"0000-0002-9652-1307","LN":"Lainé","FN":"Christine"},{"id":"A5046187244","orcid":"0000-0001-6272-0917","LN":"Marušić","FN":"Ana"},{"id":"A5082002328","LN":"Overbeke","FN":"A. John P.M."},{"id":"A5024973801","LN":"Schroeder","FN":"Torben V."},{"id":"A5070052775","LN":"Sox","FN":"Hal C."},{"id":"A5063995711","LN":"Weyden","FN":"Martin B Van Der"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-09-16","journal":"New England journal of medicine/˜The œNew England journal of medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)","volume":"351","issue":"12","firstPage":"1250","lastPage":"1251","references":["W1502989688","W1968004947","W1975157009","W1978237090","W1986407302","W1988006551","W1992171872","W1993514424","W1999628200","W2010296305","W2022263987","W2023310545","W2025484466","W2028864557","W2030082981","W2037747634","W2042707337","W2063025420","W2068426067","W2075250853","W2088683584","W2115525257","W2115667271","W2119126764","W2164580208","W2165267184","W2169858728","W2405245574"],"referencesCount":28,"citationsCount":907,"abstract":"Altruism and trust lie at the heart of research on human subjects. Altruistic individuals volunteer for research because they trust that their participation will contribute to improved health for others and that researchers will minimize risks to participants. In return for the altruism and trust that make clinical research possible, the research enterprise has an obligation to conduct research ethically and to report it honestly. Honest reporting begins with revealing the existence of all clinical studies, even those that reflect unfavorably on a research sponsor's product. Unfortunately, selective reporting of trials does occur, and it distorts the body of evidence . . .","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2102945991","numberInSourceReferences":10,"doi":"10.1093/JNCI/DJH075","type":"article","title":"Assessing the Probability That a Positive Report is False: An Approach for Molecular Epidemiology Studies","authors":[{"id":"A5000421571","LN":"Wacholder","FN":"Sholom","affil":"National Institutes of Health (US), National Cancer Institute (US), Center for Cancer Research (US)"},{"id":"A5091653870","orcid":"0000-0002-2324-3393","LN":"Chanock","FN":"Stephen J.","affil":"National Institutes of Health (US), National Cancer Institute (US), Center for Cancer Research (US)"},{"id":"A5077921630","orcid":"0000-0003-1033-2650","LN":"García-Closas","FN":"Montserrat","affil":"National Institutes of Health (US)"},{"id":"A5075497407","orcid":"0000-0003-4223-8407","LN":"ghormli","FN":"Laure El","affil":"National Institutes of Health (US), National Cancer Institute (US), Center for Cancer Research (US)"},{"id":"A5091859226","orcid":"0000-0001-6924-0895","LN":"Rothman","FN":"Nathaniel","affil":"National Institutes of Health (US), National Cancer Institute (US), Center for Cancer Research (US)"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-03-17","journal":"Journal of the National Cancer Institute (Oxford University Press)","volume":"96","issue":"6","firstPage":"434","lastPage":"442","references":["W1549194503","W1551600243","W1690786713","W1908561757","W1963936426","W1964897942","W1976624377","W1984486655","W1985849948","W2018480908","W2025651303","W2030346622","W2040731063","W2042103448","W2063562269","W2065435420","W2091841926","W2098980155","W2100212335","W2102098190","W2106631668","W2108284729","W2110065044","W2110703115","W2123184366","W2128946284","W2141481588","W2143249342","W2145193688","W2157080296","W2409877393","W4230993889","W4248762765"],"referencesCount":33,"citationsCount":1629,"abstract":"Too many reports of associations between genetic variants and common cancer sites and other complex diseases are false positives. A major reason for this unfortunate situation is the strategy of declaring statistical significance based on a P value alone, particularly, any P value below.05. The false positive report probability (FPRP), the probability of no true association between a genetic variant and disease given a statistically significant finding, depends not only on the observed P value but also on both the prior probability that the association between the genetic variant and the disease is real and the statistical power of the test. In this commentary, we show how to assess the FPRP and how to use it to decide whether a finding is deserving of attention or \"noteworthy.\" We show how this approach can lead to improvements in the design, analysis, and interpretation of molecular epidemiology studies. Our proposal can help investigators, editors, and readers of research articles to protect themselves from overinterpreting statistically significant findings that are not likely to signify a true association. An FPRP-based criterion for deciding whether to call a finding noteworthy formalizes the process already used informally by investigators--that is, tempering enthusiasm for remarkable study findings with considerations of plausibility.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1575982426","numberInSourceReferences":31,"doi":"10.1038/NRC1322","type":"review","title":"Rules of evidence for cancer molecular-marker discovery and validation","authors":[{"id":"A5059344025","orcid":"0000-0002-2200-039X","LN":"Ransohoff","FN":"David F.","affil":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-04-01","journal":"Nature reviews. Cancer (Nature Portfolio)","volume":"4","issue":"4","firstPage":"309","lastPage":"314","references":["W1488258789","W1531730344","W1537494447","W154377515","W1561758425","W1595581199","W1613856421","W1841461389","W1970046651","W1972054739","W1976564639","W1985408831","W1985701084","W1996121530","W1996647803","W2001485921","W2010115073","W2012301002","W2015213611","W2037291750","W2043235003","W2051184323","W2052525713","W2056577131","W2061422622","W2066135299","W2084898926","W2091619551","W2091723114","W2096301110","W2107956883","W2108043112","W2108725536","W2111786093","W2118203814","W2128985829","W2129303461","W2132145623","W2134389439","W2146112781","W2150027485","W2160450758","W2161371306","W2164337930","W2168692593","W2313476187","W2339926369","W2418166353","W3175417087","W4255569342"],"referencesCount":50,"citationsCount":471,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1986360186","numberInSourceReferences":19,"doi":"10.7326/0003-4819-141-10-200411160-00009","type":"article","title":"Better Reporting of Harms in Randomized Trials: An Extension of the CONSORT Statement","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR), University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5060735505","orcid":"0000-0002-1474-2596","LN":"Evans","FN":"Stephen"},{"id":"A5002375158","orcid":"0000-0002-2108-7016","LN":"Gøtzsche","FN":"Peter C"},{"id":"A5090868049","orcid":"0000-0002-4348-7635","LN":"O’Neill","FN":"Robert T."},{"id":"A5042962646","orcid":"0000-0002-7183-4083","LN":"Altman","FN":"Douglas G."},{"id":"A5056315210","orcid":"0000-0003-2596-7616","LN":"Schulz","FN":"Kenneth F."},{"id":"A5068353058","orcid":"0000-0003-2434-4206","LN":"Moher","FN":"David"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-11-16","journal":"Annals of internal medicine (American College of Physicians)","volume":"141","issue":"10","firstPage":"781","lastPage":"781","references":["W146573797","W147691740","W1501619595","W1593442063","W1607015646","W182972843","W1832679015","W1889354068","W1966754527","W1969026970","W1974649841","W1975270990","W1978294852","W1981210131","W1981241537","W1981978308","W1993398606","W1999673906","W2000034135","W2001426216","W2006402278","W2008673024","W2016259236","W2019737243","W2022076582","W2024408980","W2024865890","W2031408900","W2036333900","W2042446689","W2053143938","W2058288674","W2062075388","W2063841251","W2064415455","W2068898056","W2068959829","W2072784477","W2078110114","W2080090546","W2087666617","W2089799205","W2092752691","W2097867305","W2106413636","W2111743672","W2112249411","W2115232506","W2117388663","W2128500476","W2129290388","W2133774931","W2137981468","W2140513961","W2140878721","W2144356626","W2147581820","W2152240392","W2152393983","W2153972688","W2154870752","W2159409064","W2164136356","W2167805334","W2168365649","W2322276116","W2417580273"],"referencesCount":67,"citationsCount":1280,"abstract":"In response to overwhelming evidence and the consequences of poor-quality reporting of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs), many medical journals and editorial groups have now endorsed the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement, a 22-item checklist and flow diagram. Because CONSORT primarily aimed at improving the quality of reporting of efficacy, only 1 checklist item specifically addressed the reporting of safety. Considerable evidence suggests that reporting of harms-related data from RCTs also needs improvement. Members of the CONSORT Group, including journal editors and scientists, met in Montebello, Quebec, Canada, in May 2003 to address this problem. The result is the following document: the standard CONSORT checklist with 10 new recommendations about reporting harms-related issues, accompanying explanation, and examples to highlight specific aspects of proper reporting. We hope that this document, in conjunction with other CONSORT-related materials (http://www.consort-statement.org), will help authors improve their reporting of harms-related data from RCTs. Better reporting will help readers critically appraise and interpret trial results. Journals can support this goal by revising Instructions to Authors so that they refer authors to this document.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2167098291","numberInSourceReferences":8,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(05)17878-7","type":"article","title":"Microarrays and molecular research: noise discovery?","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR), University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-02-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"365","issue":"9458","firstPage":"454","lastPage":"455","references":["W1575982426","W1690786713","W1996647803","W2005299356","W2019564956","W2030165415","W2043235003","W2090212207","W2094201541","W2094934696","W2126436234"],"referencesCount":11,"citationsCount":212,"abstract":"The promise of microarrays has been of apocalyptic dimensions. As put forth by one of their inventors, “all human illness can be studied by microarray analysis, and the ultimate goal of this work is to develop effective treatments or cures for every human disease by 2050”. 1 Schena M Microarray analysis. Wiley-Liss, New York2003: 21 Google Scholar All diseases are to be redefined, all human suffering reduced to gene-expression profiles. Cancer has been the most common early target of this revolution 2 Ntzani EE Ioannidis JP Predictive ability of DNA microarrays for cancer outcomes and correlates. Lancet. 2003; 362: 1439-1444 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (278) Google Scholar and publications in the most prestigious journals have heralded the discovery of molecular signatures conferring different outcomes and requiring different treatments. Yet, in today's Lancet, Stefan Michiels and colleagues show that, on close scrutiny, in five of the seven largest studies on cancer prognosis, this technology performs no better than flipping a coin. The other two studies barely beat horoscopes. Why such failure? Prediction of cancer outcome with microarrays: a multiple random validation strategyThe prognostic value of published microarray results in cancer studies should be considered with caution. We advocate the use of validation by repeated random sampling. Full-Text PDF","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2091947792","numberInSourceReferences":4,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(05)17866-0","type":"article","title":"Prediction of cancer outcome with microarrays: a multiple random validation strategy","authors":[{"id":"A5062814767","orcid":"0000-0002-6963-2968","LN":"Michiels","FN":"Stefan","affil":"Institut Gustave Roussy (FR)"},{"id":"A5026485141","LN":"Koscielny","FN":"Serge","affil":"Institut Gustave Roussy (FR), Inserm (FR)"},{"id":"A5060254160","orcid":"0000-0002-0004-0905","LN":"Hill","FN":"Catherine","affil":"Institut Gustave Roussy (FR)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-02-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"365","issue":"9458","firstPage":"488","lastPage":"492","references":["W1544923801","W1557313378","W1966701961","W1971278063","W1976564639","W1996647803","W2000771269","W2036555904","W2088085204","W2088851040","W2092868756","W2097413644","W2126214330","W2128985829","W2138218344","W2160450758","W4243896200"],"referencesCount":17,"citationsCount":953,"abstract":"General studies of microarray gene-expression profiling have been undertaken to predict cancer outcome. Knowledge of this gene-expression profile or molecular signature should improve treatment of patients by allowing treatment to be tailored to the severity of the disease. We reanalysed data from the seven largest published studies that have attempted to predict prognosis of cancer patients on the basis of DNA microarray analysis.The standard strategy is to identify a molecular signature (ie, the subset of genes most differentially expressed in patients with different outcomes) in a training set of patients and to estimate the proportion of misclassifications with this signature on an independent validation set of patients. We expanded this strategy (based on unique training and validation sets) by using multiple random sets, to study the stability of the molecular signature and the proportion of misclassifications.The list of genes identified as predictors of prognosis was highly unstable; molecular signatures strongly depended on the selection of patients in the training sets. For all but one study, the proportion misclassified decreased as the number of patients in the training set increased. Because of inadequate validation, our chosen studies published overoptimistic results compared with those from our own analyses. Five of the seven studies did not classify patients better than chance.The prognostic value of published microarray results in cancer studies should be considered with caution. We advocate the use of validation by repeated random sampling.","isRetracted":false},{"numberInSourceReferences":12,"title":"Missing: ISBN-13-978-0195083774 (NOT FOUND, 404)","authors":[]},{"id":"W1982375973","numberInSourceReferences":14,"doi":"10.1002/SIM.4780030421","type":"article","title":"Why do we need some large, simple randomized trials?","authors":[{"id":"A5018419311","orcid":"0000-0002-9458-139X","LN":"Yusuf","FN":"Salim"},{"id":"A5090621185","orcid":"0000-0001-8288-8602","LN":"Collins","FN":"Rory"},{"id":"A5041941850","orcid":"0000-0001-8219-5339","LN":"Pető","FN":"Richárd"}],"year":1984,"date":"1984-10-01","journal":"Statistics in medicine (Wiley)","volume":"3","issue":"4","firstPage":"409","lastPage":"420","references":["W1966953116","W2013256551","W4239555076"],"referencesCount":3,"citationsCount":658,"abstract":"Statistics in MedicineVolume 3, Issue 4 p. 409-420 Article Why do we need some large, simple randomized trials? Salim Yusuf, Salim Yusuf Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this authorRory Collins, Rory Collins Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this authorRichard Peto, Richard Peto Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this author Salim Yusuf, Salim Yusuf Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this authorRory Collins, Rory Collins Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this authorRichard Peto, Richard Peto Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UKSearch for more papers by this author First published: October/December 1984 https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780030421Citations: 514AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume3, Issue4October/December 1984Pages 409-420 RelatedInformation","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2006825115","numberInSourceReferences":16,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.7618077","type":"article","title":"Epidemiology Faces Its Limits","authors":[{"id":"A5004768594","LN":"Taubes","FN":"Gary"}],"year":1995,"date":"1995-07-14","journal":"Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)","volume":"269","issue":"5221","firstPage":"164","lastPage":"169","references":["W2085079203"],"referencesCount":1,"citationsCount":779,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2126436234","numberInSourceReferences":15,"doi":"10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000229)19:4<453::AID-SIM350>3.0.CO;2-5","type":"article","title":"What do we mean by validating a prognostic model?","authors":[{"id":"A5042962646","orcid":"0000-0002-7183-4083","LN":"Altman","FN":"Douglas G."},{"id":"A5090853680","orcid":"0000-0001-6386-4410","LN":"Royston","FN":"Patrick","affil":"Hammersmith Hospital (GB)"}],"year":2000,"date":"2000-02-29","journal":"Statistics in medicine (Wiley)","volume":"19","issue":"4","firstPage":"453","lastPage":"473","references":["W1943625379","W1965555277","W1969291703","W1974010676","W1980244389","W1981619393","W1982989275","W1986546598","W1991179636","W1992305776","W2002493616","W2002607089","W2008706768","W2021801488","W2028520303","W2028896946","W2033339846","W2037668591","W2051483504","W2056577131","W2060050130","W2073241381","W2073790637","W2074703669","W2089463633","W2094104004","W2098186196","W2111149452","W2128963608","W2129925362","W2144017903","W2144935164","W2148254543","W2148371346","W2148773517","W2158190397","W2319881430","W3106889297","W4236383135","W4255569342","W4321428130","W647664907"],"referencesCount":42,"citationsCount":1320,"abstract":"Prognostic models are used in medicine for investigating patient outcome in relation to patient and disease characteristics. Such models do not always work well in practice, so it is widely recommended that they need to be validated. The idea of validating a prognostic model is generally taken to mean establishing that it works satisfactorily for patients other than those from whose data it was derived. In this paper we examine what is meant by validation and review why it is necessary. We consider how to validate a model and suggest that it is desirable to consider two rather different aspects – statistical and clinical validity – and examine some general approaches to validation. We illustrate the issues using several case studies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1965992514","numberInSourceReferences":13,"doi":"10.1056/NEJMP048286","type":"article","title":"Failing the Public Health — Rofecoxib, Merck, and the FDA","authors":[{"id":"A5029768994","orcid":"0000-0002-1478-4729","LN":"Topol","FN":"Eric J.","affil":"Cleveland Clinic (US)"}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-10-21","journal":"New England journal of medicine/˜The œNew England journal of medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)","volume":"351","issue":"17","firstPage":"1707","lastPage":"1709","references":["W2024233889","W2110809844","W2330496155"],"referencesCount":3,"citationsCount":555,"abstract":"On May 21, 1999, Merck was granted approval by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market rofecoxib (Vioxx). On September 30, 2004, after more than 80 million patients had taken this medicine and annual sales had topped $2.5 billion, the company withdrew the drug because of an excess risk of myocardial infarctions and strokes. This represents the largest prescription-drug withdrawal in history, but had the many warning signs along the way been heeded, such a debacle could have been prevented. Neither of the two major forces in this five-and-a-half-year affair — neither Merck nor the FDA — fulfilled its . . .","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2144659346","numberInSourceReferences":29,"doi":"10.1016/J.JCLINEPI.2004.10.019","type":"article","title":"Early extreme contradictory estimates may appear in published research: The Proteus phenomenon in molecular genetics research and randomized trials","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR), University of Ioannina (GR)"},{"id":"A5062268434","orcid":"0000-0002-3990-1848","LN":"Trikalinos","FN":"Thomas A","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US), University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-06-01","journal":"Journal of clinical epidemiology (Elsevier BV)","volume":"58","issue":"6","firstPage":"543","lastPage":"549","references":["W1541152614","W1690786713","W1982228885","W1984814096","W1988331797","W1998358624","W2006546769","W2024119733","W2027524654","W2039569970","W2042103448","W2058970027","W2061008984","W2065435420","W2075571844","W2094934696","W2103718021","W2107328434","W2112339576","W2120517947","W2123644333","W2143249342","W2144062723","W2162235775","W2168599342","W2320350515","W4243579364"],"referencesCount":27,"citationsCount":292,"abstract":"Background and Objective Divergent results on the same scientific question generate controversy. We hypothesized that controversial data are attractive to investigators and editors, and thus the most extreme, opposite results would appear very early rather than late, as data accumulate, provided data can be generated rapidly. Methods We used data from MEDLINE-indexed meta-analyses of case–control studies on genetic associations (retrospective, hypothesis-generating research with usually rapid turnaround) and meta-analyses of randomized trials of health care interventions (prospective, targeted research that usually takes longer) sampled from the Cochrane Library. Using cumulative meta-analysis, we evaluated how the between-study variance for studies on the same question changed over time and at what point the studies with the most extreme results ever observed had been published. Results The maximal between-study variance was more likely to be recorded early in the 44 eligible meta-analyses of genetic associations than in the 37 meta-analyses of health care interventions (P = .013). At the time of the first heterogeneity assessment, the most favorable-ever result in support of a specific association was more likely to appear than the least favorable-ever result (22 vs. 10, P = .017); the opposite was seen at the second heterogeneity assessment (15 vs. 5, P = .031). Such a sequence of extreme opposite results was not seen in the clinical trials meta-analyses. The estimated between-study variance decreased over time in genetic association studies (P = .010), but not in clinical trials (P = .30). Conclusion In contrast to prospective trials, a rapid early sequence of extreme, opposite results is frequent in retrospective hypothesis-generating molecular research.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2081814119","numberInSourceReferences":36,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.294.2.218","type":"article","title":"Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A."}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-07-13","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"294","issue":"2","firstPage":"218","lastPage":"218","references":["W113714250","W1522513710","W1525444530","W1529335551","W1593442063","W160617658","W180946569","W1853185049","W1923786133","W193557079","W1949163494","W1974279954","W1974877011","W1974975370","W1981220317","W1987335375","W1997894781","W1999319544","W1999975653","W2000783941","W2003726111","W2007516629","W2008372707","W2008394370","W2009226722","W2011903618","W2016743641","W2017836681","W2018152980","W2019254783","W2020906145","W2021284032","W2021604439","W2022265417","W2023629207","W2024119733","W2026202162","W2027392930","W2027652926","W2027792306","W2029077137","W2029794295","W2031322208","W2033106148","W2039602526","W2039666458","W2040923416","W2044003888","W2046383587","W2048151432","W2053001812","W205495280","W2055123579","W2057315335","W2060271116","W2061142443","W2063169348","W2071772324","W2075571844","W2076557770","W2080675410","W2082470201","W2084688828","W2084917404","W2085127080","W2087957366","W2089900795","W2091363481","W2093216413","W2096502598","W2101760255","W2103718021","W2105213202","W2108790123","W2110171695","W2112339576","W2113259481","W2113264115","W2119804593","W2121708973","W2122939659","W2129750583","W2130485108","W2130574277","W2133146045","W2135010675","W2136802843","W2137408480","W2139861350","W2140154087","W2141647078","W2143518969","W2144238512","W2144838726","W2147254207","W2147530468","W2154015002","W2155598961","W2164417916","W2165715544","W2169510138","W2188846692","W2271771390","W2275531380","W2292308933","W2296998040","W2306744213","W2312388685","W2313139941","W2313857605","W2314213298","W2315463059","W2316376271","W2316970929","W2317242858","W2317554121","W2319268509","W2319983832","W2321102288","W2322095705","W2322373408","W2322441340","W2323458614","W2323577539","W2323738871","W2324489407","W2324712847","W2326289669","W2326335154","W2326455829","W2326508838","W2327454703","W2327599506","W2328451703","W2328926651","W2329084480","W2329711941","W2331020239","W2331249764","W2332196493","W2332287011","W2333920681","W2334200141","W2334903440","W2335295875","W2336678594","W2338610038","W2339219218","W2339913251","W2340640662","W2341557816","W2395313915","W2407345634","W2426162768","W2427470035","W2493925730","W2496549934","W2529190803","W2563968543","W2572119714","W2585382523","W2601068201","W2615684303","W2616141209","W2621280539","W2767911074","W2769264260","W2773826105","W2972867833","W3022148767","W311320695","W3144816857","W3149466712","W3748495","W38523360"],"referencesCount":175,"citationsCount":1342,"abstract":"ContextControversy and uncertainty ensue when the results of clinical research on the effectiveness of interventions are subsequently contradicted. Controversies are most prominent when high-impact research is involved.ObjectivesTo understand how frequently highly cited studies are contradicted or find effects that are stronger than in other similar studies and to discern whether specific characteristics are associated with such refutation over time.DesignAll original clinical research studies published in 3 major general clinical journals or high-impact-factor specialty journals in 1990-2003 and cited more than 1000 times in the literature were examined.Main Outcome MeasureThe results of highly cited articles were compared against subsequent studies of comparable or larger sample size and similar or better controlled designs. The same analysis was also performed comparatively for matched studies that were not so highly cited.ResultsOf 49 highly cited original clinical research studies, 45 claimed that the intervention was effective. Of these, 7 (16%) were contradicted by subsequent studies, 7 others (16%) had found effects that were stronger than those of subsequent studies, 20 (44%) were replicated, and 11 (24%) remained largely unchallenged. Five of 6 highly-cited nonrandomized studies had been contradicted or had found stronger effects vs 9 of 39 randomized controlled trials (P = .008). Among randomized trials, studies with contradicted or stronger effects were smaller (P = .009) than replicated or unchallenged studies although there was no statistically significant difference in their early or overall citation impact. Matched control studies did not have a significantly different share of refuted results than highly cited studies, but they included more studies with “negative” results.ConclusionsContradiction and initially stronger effects are not unusual in highly cited research of clinical interventions and their outcomes. The extent to which high citations may provoke contradictions and vice versa needs more study. Controversies are most common with highly cited nonrandomized studies, but even the most highly cited randomized trials may be challenged and refuted over time, especially small ones.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2144981148","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1371/JOURNAL.PMED.0020124","type":"article","title":"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False","authors":[{"id":"A5085949499","orcid":"0000-0003-3118-6859","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR), Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-08-30","journal":"PLoS medicine (Public Library of Science)","volume":"2","issue":"8","firstPage":"e124","lastPage":"e124","references":["W2060512257","W2063068713","W2035314238","W1995461240","W2055157368","W4300811467","W2000442546","W2109363337","W2023839473","W1979423827","W1551600243","W2062248680","W1715602942","W1690786713","W2142960568","W1988934365","W2025651303","W2046875666","W2094934696","W1996647803","W2106631668","W2163139471","W2158304798","W2133774931","W2135010675","W2102945991","W1575982426","W1986360186","W2167098291","W2091947792",null,"W1982375973","W2006825115","W2126436234","W1965992514","W2144659346","W2081814119"],"referencesCount":37,"citationsCount":7432,"abstract":"There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.","isRetracted":false,"isSource":true,"customListOfReferences":["pmid:11302887","pmid:15158637","pmid:15158638","pmid:15705458","pmid:11600885","pmid:12642066","pmid:12727138","pmid:15705441","pmid:11159626","pmid:15026468","pmid:10866211","ISBN-13-978-0195083774","pmid:15470193","pmid:6528136","pmid:10694730","pmid:7618077","pmid:10521349","pmid:11323066","pmid:15545678","pmid:10532877","pmid:10584742","pmid:10789670","pmid:10755072","pmid:8015123","pmid:15161896","pmid:9693346","pmid:11405896","pmid:1535110","pmid:15878467","pmid:14602436","pmid:15057290","10.1093/BIOMET/44.1-2.187","10.1093/BIOMET/44.3-4.533","pmid:11434499","10.1056/NEJME048225","pmid:16014596","pmid:14584715"]}],"incomingSuggestions":[{"id":"W1970046651","numberInSourceReferences":5,"doi":"10.1056/NEJM197809282991304","type":"article","title":"The Importance of Beta, the Type II Error and Sample Size in the Design and Interpretation of the Randomized Control Trial","authors":[{"id":"A5032189262","LN":"Freiman","FN":"Jennie A."},{"id":"A5065357436","LN":"Chalmers","FN":"Thomas C."},{"id":"A5073667857","LN":"Smith","FN":"H."},{"id":"A5066582206","LN":"Kuebler","FN":"Roy R."}],"year":1978,"date":"1978-09-28","journal":"New England journal of medicine/˜The œNew England journal of medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)","volume":"299","issue":"13","firstPage":"690","lastPage":"694","references":["W2013256551","W2053040706","W4242605405"],"referencesCount":3,"citationsCount":1543,"abstract":"Seventy-one \"negative\" randomized control trials were re-examined to determine if the investigators had studied large enough samples to give a high probability (greater than 0.90) of detecting a 25 per cent and 50 per cent therapeutic improvement in the response. Sixty-seven of the trials had a greater than 10 per cent risk of missing a true 25 per cent therapeutic improvement, and with the same risk, 50 of the trials could have missed a 50 per cent improvement. Estimates of 90 per cent confidence intervals for the true improvement in each trial showed that in 57 of these \"negative\" trials, a potential 25 per cent improvement was possible, and 34 of the trials showed a potential 50 per cent improvement. Many of the therapies labeled as \"no different from control\" in trials using inadequate samples have not received a fair test. Concern for the probability of missing an important therapeutic improvement because of small sample sizes deserves more attention in the planning of clinical trials.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1993398606","numberInSourceReferences":9,"doi":"10.1016/0197-2456(89)90017-2","type":"article","title":"Methodology and overt and hidden bias in reports of 196 double-blind trials of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs in rheumatoid arthritis","authors":[{"id":"A5002375158","orcid":"0000-0002-2108-7016","LN":"Gøtzsche","FN":"Peter C","affil":"Hvidovre Hospital (DK)"}],"year":1989,"date":"1989-03-01","journal":"Controlled clinical trials (Elsevier BV)","volume":"10","issue":"1","firstPage":"31","lastPage":"56","references":["W1571179146","W1592116463","W1963975415","W1969836247","W1970046651","W1972328044","W1974800737","W1976018371","W1977833499","W1982070737","W1982760889","W1982885757","W1984578273","W1987944392","W1992653585","W1993525500","W1994620621","W1995115971","W1995953450","W1996063904","W1999705331","W2000231175","W2000881374","W2000952533","W2003066587","W2003588691","W2004091478","W2006324664","W2009107433","W2009640122","W2012947453","W2013256551","W2014712738","W2026250491","W2027564753","W2032656266","W2034463274","W2034688902","W2038857517","W2040203131","W2042677240","W2043276332","W2049021766","W2049245713","W2052811098","W2055146603","W2055248423","W2057212716","W2067550511","W2068351174","W2069825350","W2081887252","W2087222598","W2088158803","W2091024615","W2091031949","W2092786384","W2104312285","W2121361638","W2122268048","W2130974158","W2138613293","W2140808429","W2144485397","W2152830397","W2160086320","W2318297338","W2320795040","W2326816315","W2329319151","W2394974178","W2397031009","W2415712401","W2796025486","W2800705832","W3178230595","W4234549760","W4236343520","W4249398224","W4293586664","W4300659195","W4319290939"],"referencesCount":82,"citationsCount":318,"abstract":"Important design aspects were decreasingly reported in NSAID trials over the years, whereas the quality of statistical analysis improved. In half of the trials, the effect variables in the methods and results sections were not the same, and the interpretation of the erythrocyte sedimentation rate in the reports seemed to depend on whether a significant difference was found. Statistically significant results appeared in 93 reports (47%). In 73 trials they favored only the new drug, and in 8 only the active control. All 39 trials with a significant difference in side effects favored the new drug. Choice of dose, multiple comparisons, wrong calculation, subgroup and within-groups analyses, wrong sampling units (in 63% of trials for effect variables, in 23% for side effects), change in measurement scale before analysis, baseline difference, and selective reporting of significant results were some of the verified or possible causes for the large proportion of results that favored the new drug. Doubtful or invalid statements were found in 76% of the conclusions or abstracts. Bias consistently favored the new drug in 81 trials, and the control in only one trial. It is not obvious how a reliable meta-analysis could be done in these trials.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2112339576","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1016/0140-6736(91)90201-Y","type":"article","title":"Publication bias in clinical research","authors":[{"id":"A5058664398","orcid":"0000-0002-2603-5418","LN":"Easterbrook","FN":"Philippa","affil":"Johns Hopkins Medicine (US), Johns Hopkins University (US)"},{"id":"A5080135607","LN":"Gopalan","FN":"Radha","affil":"Johns Hopkins Medicine (US), Johns Hopkins University (US)"},{"id":"A5051242364","LN":"Berlin","FN":"Jesse A.","affil":"University of Pennsylvania (US)"},{"id":"A5011127007","orcid":"0000-0001-6504-0036","LN":"Matthews","FN":"David R.","affil":"John Radcliffe Hospital (GB)"}],"year":1991,"date":"1991-04-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"337","issue":"8746","firstPage":"867","lastPage":"872","references":["W1484475765","W1568844944","W1887056411","W1967186521","W1970046651","W1972617787","W1983413936","W1990339821","W2000967743","W2004121449","W2006546769","W2016526647","W2025078197","W2028299022","W2030192372","W2034992074","W2037887807","W2053664176","W2054305681","W2072113881","W2099257933","W2104312285","W2151970467","W2339695218","W4230870326"],"referencesCount":25,"citationsCount":2794,"abstract":"In a retrospective survey, 487 research projects approved by the Central Oxford Research Ethics Committee between 1984 and 1987, were studied for evidence of publication bias. As of May, 1990, 285 of the studies had been analysed by the investigators, and 52% of these had been published. Studies with statistically significant results were more likely to be published than those finding no difference between the study groups (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.32; 95% confidence interval [Cl] 1.25-4.28). Studies with significant results were also more likely to lead to a greater number of publications and presentations and to be published in journals with a high citation impact factor. An increased likelihood of publication was also associated with a high rating by the investigator of the importance of the study results, and with increasing sample size. The tendency towards publication bias was greater with observational and laboratory-based experimental studies (OR = 3.79; 95% Cl = 1.47-9.76) than with randomised clinical trials (OR = 0.84; 95% Cl = 0.34-2.09). We have confirmed the presence of publication bias in a cohort of clinical research studies. These findings suggest that conclusions based only on a review of published data should be interpreted cautiously, especially for observational studies. Improved strategies are needed to identify the results of unpublished as well as published studies.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2320350515","numberInSourceReferences":6,"doi":"10.1056/NEJM199207233270406","type":"article","title":"Cumulative Meta-Analysis of Therapeutic Trials for Myocardial Infarction","authors":[{"id":"A5053201045","LN":"Lau","FN":"Joseph","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US)"},{"id":"A5019612250","orcid":"0000-0002-0808-9199","LN":"Antman","FN":"Elliott M.","affil":"Harvard University (US), Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)"},{"id":"A5077477042","LN":"Jimenez-Silva","FN":"Jeanette"},{"id":"A5006086380","LN":"Kupelnick","FN":"Bruce"},{"id":"A5038539972","LN":"Mosteller","FN":"Frederick","affil":"Harvard University (US)"},{"id":"A5065357436","LN":"Chalmers","FN":"Thomas C."}],"year":1992,"date":"1992-07-23","journal":"New England journal of medicine/˜The œNew England journal of medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)","volume":"327","issue":"4","firstPage":"248","lastPage":"254","references":["W1213947386","W1549654956","W1897910008","W1920261218","W1966953116","W1978463699","W1994898034","W1997549761","W2002550734","W2006546769","W2009294093","W2010925839","W2016526647","W2026858889","W2028299022","W2029390260","W2037219714","W2059356295","W2061024404","W2063977887","W2066328761","W2067550511","W2070914305","W2075541661","W2082942950","W2083625183","W2093437752","W2094153875","W2098302332","W2105494532","W2106230861","W2107328434","W2116446898","W2134609438","W2136983298","W2160889529","W2335979330","W2415005307","W4233472242","W4233964033","W4239525205","W4239653837","W4240821835","W4246845671","W4250359757","W4251037918","W4252241269","W70359381"],"referencesCount":48,"citationsCount":1068,"abstract":"The large volume of published randomized, controlled trials has led to a need for meta-analyses to track therapeutic advances. Performing a new meta-analysis whenever the results of a new trial of a particular therapy are published permits the study of trends in efficacy and makes it possible to determine when a new treatment appears to be significantly effective or deleterious. We describe the use of such a procedure, cumulative meta-analysis, to assess therapeutic trials among patients with myocardial infarction.We performed cumulative meta-analyses of clinical trials that evaluated 15 treatments and preventive measures for acute myocardial infarction.An example of this method is its application to the use of intravenous streptokinase as thrombolytic therapy for acute infarction. Thirty-three trials evaluating this therapy were performed between 1959 and 1988. We found that a consistent, statistically significant reduction in total mortality (odds ratios, 0.74; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.59 to 0.92) was achieved in 1973, after only eight trials involving 2432 patients had been completed. The results of the 25 subsequent trials, which enrolled an additional 34,542 patients through 1988, had little or no effect on the odds ratio establishing efficacy, but simply narrowed the 95 percent confidence interval. In particular, two very large trials, the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico trial in 1986 (11,712 patients) and the Second International Study of Infarct Survival trial in 1988 (17,187 patients) did not modify the already established evidence of efficacy. We used a similar approach to study the accumulating evidence of efficacy (or lack of efficacy) of 14 other therapies and preventive measures for myocardial infarction.Cumulative meta-analysis of therapeutic trials facilitates the determination of clinical efficacy and harm and may be helpful in tracking trials, planning future trials, and making clinical recommendations for therapy.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W4233954896","numberInSourceReferences":8,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.1996.03540080059030","type":"article","title":"Improving the Quality of Reporting of Randomized Controlled Trials","authors":[{"id":"A5079054289","orcid":"0000-0003-3772-1795","LN":"Begg","FN":"Colin B."}],"year":1996,"date":"1996-08-28","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"276","issue":"8","firstPage":"637","lastPage":"637","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":2721,"abstract":"THE RANDOMIZED controlled trial (RCT), more than any other methodology, can have a powerful and immediate impact on patient care. Ideally, the report of such an evaluation needs to convey to the reader relevant information concerning the design, conduct, analysis, and generalizability of the trial. This information should provide the reader with the ability to make informed judgments regarding the internal and external validity of the trial. Accurate and complete reporting also benefits editors and reviewers in their deliberations regarding submitted manuscripts. For RCTs to ultimately benefit patients, the published report should be of the highest possible standard. <h3>For editorial comment see p 649.</h3> Evidence produced repeatedly over the last 30 years indicates a wide chasm between what a trial should report and what is actually published in the literature. In a review of 71 RCTs with negative results published between 1960 and 1975, the authors reported that the vast","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2042103448","numberInSourceReferences":2,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.273.5281.1516","type":"article","title":"The Future of Genetic Studies of Complex Human Diseases","authors":[{"id":"A5085936676","orcid":"0000-0002-4126-2061","LN":"Risch","FN":"Neil","affil":"Stanford University (US)"},{"id":"A5021809421","orcid":"0000-0002-1501-9949","LN":"Merikangas","FN":"Kathleen R.","affil":"Yale University (US)"}],"year":1996,"date":"1996-09-13","journal":"Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)","volume":"273","issue":"5281","firstPage":"1516","lastPage":"1517","references":["W136910319","W1543868019","W2123466824"],"referencesCount":3,"citationsCount":5044,"abstract":"The identification of the genetic basis of complex human diseases such as schizophrenia and diabetes has proven difficult. In their Perspective, Risch and Merikangas propose that we can best accomplish this goal by combining the power of the human genome project with association studies, a method for determining the basis of a genetic disease.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W1963936426","numberInSourceReferences":10,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.95.19.11389","type":"article","title":"Tests and estimates of allelic association in complex inheritance","authors":[{"id":"A5081871870","LN":"Morton","FN":"N. E.","affil":"Princess Anne Hospital (GB), University of Southampton (GB)"},{"id":"A5079069117","orcid":"0000-0001-7108-0771","LN":"Collins","FN":"Andrew","affil":"Princess Anne Hospital (GB), University of Southampton (GB)"}],"year":1998,"date":"1998-09-15","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (National Academy of Sciences)","volume":"95","issue":"19","firstPage":"11389","lastPage":"11393","references":["W1543868019","W1560012080","W1978339005","W1997887791","W1999196790","W1999843368","W2006028276","W2009860181","W2013869066","W2014271461","W2021946626","W2026444780","W2028337763","W2035064373","W2051008597","W2087418803","W2095051032","W2105322480","W2135577623"],"referencesCount":19,"citationsCount":239,"abstract":"Family-based procedures such as the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) were motivated by concern that sample-based methods to map disease genes by allelic association are not robust to population stratification, migration, and admixture. Other factors to consider in designing a study of allelic association are specification of gene action in a weakly parametric model, efficiency, diagnostic reliability for hypernormal individuals, interest in linkage and imprinting, and sibship composition. Family-based samples lend themselves to the TDT despite its inefficiency compared with cases and unrelated normal controls. The TDT has an efficiency of 1/2 for parent-offspring pairs and 2/3 for father-mother-child trios. Against cases and hypernormal controls, the efficiency is only 1/6 on the null hypothesis. Although dependent on marker gene frequency and other factors, efficiency for hypernormal controls is always greater than for random controls. Efficiency of the TDT is increased in multiplex families and by inclusion of normal sibs, approaching a case-control design with normal but not hypernormal controls. Isolated cases favor unrelated controls, and only in exceptional populations would avoidance of stratification justify a family-based design to map disease genes by allelic association.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2134338262","numberInSourceReferences":7,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(98)01085-X","type":"article","title":"Does quality of reports of randomised trials affect estimates of intervention efficacy reported in meta-analyses?","authors":[{"id":"A5068353058","orcid":"0000-0003-2434-4206","LN":"Moher","FN":"David","affil":"Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CA), University of Ottawa (CA)"},{"id":"A5066860826","LN":"Pham","FN":"Ba’","affil":"Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CA)"},{"id":"A5012359048","orcid":"0000-0002-7090-2953","LN":"Jones","FN":"Alison","affil":"Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CA)"},{"id":"A5084752934","orcid":"0000-0002-4087-543X","LN":"Cook","FN":"Deborah J.","affil":"McMaster University (CA)"},{"id":"A5040320731","orcid":"0000-0002-9591-5099","LN":"Jadad","FN":"Alejandro R.","affil":"McMaster University (CA)"},{"id":"A5034760307","LN":"Moher","FN":"M"},{"id":"A5022067453","orcid":"0000-0001-5062-0556","LN":"Tugwell","FN":"Peter","affil":"University of Ottawa (CA)"},{"id":"A5008250585","LN":"Klassen","FN":"Terry P","affil":"University of Ottawa (CA), Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CA)"}],"year":1998,"date":"1998-08-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"352","issue":"9128","firstPage":"609","lastPage":"613","references":["W1966814352","W1979494371","W1982130175","W1986215651","W1994898034","W1995574368","W1997549761","W2013594251","W2027294433","W2030958316","W2031385454","W2033238186","W2068139609","W2094302749","W2118266607","W2140359845","W2148410979","W2164777277","W2410734210","W2921865037","W4214559180","W4233568880","W4233954896","W4301115652","W4323283745","W4323284479"],"referencesCount":26,"citationsCount":3424,"abstract":"Background Few meta-analyses of randomised trials assess the quality of the studies included. Yet there is increasing evidence that trial quality can affect estimates of intervention efficacy. We investigated whether different methods of quality assessment provide different estimates of intervention efficacy evaluated in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods We randomly selected 11 meta-analyses that involved 127 RCTs on the efficacy of interventions used for circulatory and digestive diseases, mental health, and pregnancy and childbirth. We replicated all the meta-analyses using published data from the primary studies. The quality of reporting of all 127 clinical trials was assessed by means of component and scale approaches. To explore the effects of quality on the quantitative results, we examined the effects of different methods of incorporating quality scores (sensitivity analysis and quality weights) on the results of the meta-analyses. Findings The quality of trials was low. Masked assessments provided significantly higher scores than unmasked assessments (mean 2·74 [SD 1·10] vs 2·55 [1·20]). Low-quality trials (score ·2), compared with high-quality trials (score >2), were associated with an increased estimate of benefit of 34% (ratio of odds ratios [ROR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·52–0·83]). Trials that used inadequate allocation concealment, compared with those that used adequate methods, were also associated with an increased estimate of benefit (37%; ROR=0·63 [0·45–0·88]). The average treatment benefit was 39% (odds ratio [OR] 0·61 [0·57–0·65]) for all trials, 52% (OR 0·48 [0·43–0·54]) for low-quality trials, and 29% (OR 0·71 [0·65–0·77]) for high-quality trials. Use of all the trial scores as quality weights reduced the effects to 35% (OR 0·65 [0·59–0·71]) and resulted in the least statistical heterogeneity. Interpretation Studies of low methodological quality in which the estimate of quality is incorporated into the meta-analyses can alter the interpretation of the benefit of intervention, whether a scale or component approach is used in the assessment of trial quality.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2103718021","numberInSourceReferences":4,"doi":"10.1001/JAMA.279.4.281","type":"article","title":"Effect of the Statistical Significance of Results on the Time to Completion and Publication of Randomized Efficacy Trials","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (US), National Institutes of Health (US)"}],"year":1998,"date":"1998-01-28","journal":"JAMA (American Medical Association)","volume":"279","issue":"4","firstPage":"281","lastPage":"281","references":["W1568844944","W1887056411","W1972617787","W1974975370","W1989961471","W2004169137","W2009226722","W2040674676","W2044131318","W2056360751","W2059707463","W2060049279","W2063169348","W2064223985","W2066002429","W2075571844","W2079435918","W2089805696","W2097885728","W2099610513","W2106269465","W2112339576","W2116712233","W2158767537","W2287953481","W2320350515","W2331197341"],"referencesCount":27,"citationsCount":578,"abstract":"Context.—Medical evidence may be biased over time if completion and publication of randomized efficacy trials are delayed when results are not statistically significant.Objective.—To evaluate whether the time to completion and the time to publication of randomized phase 2 and phase 3 trials are affected by the statistical significance of results and to describe the natural history of such trials.Design.—Prospective cohort of randomized efficacy trials conducted by 2 trialist groups from 1986 to 1996.Setting.—Multicenter trial groups in human immunodeficiency virus infection sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.Patients.—A total of 109 efficacy trials (total enrollment, 43708 patients).Main Outcome Measures.—Time from start of enrollment to completion of follow-up and time from completion of follow-up to peer-reviewed publication assessed with survival analysis.Results.—The median time from start of enrollment to publication was 5.5 years and was substantially longer for negative trials than for results favoring an experimental arm (6.5 vs 4.3 years, respectively; P&lt;.001; hazard ratio for time to publication for positive vs negative trials, 3.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-7.7). This difference was mostly attributable to differences in the time from completion to publication (median, 3.0 vs 1.7 years for negative vs positive trials; P&lt;.001). On average, trials with significant results favoring any arm completed follow-up slightly earlier than trials with nonsignificant results (median, 2.3 vs 2.5 years; P=.045), but long-protracted trials often had low event rates and failed to reach statistical significance, while trials that were terminated early had significant results. Positive trials were submitted for publication significantly more rapidly after completion than were negative trials (median, 1.0 vs 1.6 years; P=.001) and were published more rapidly after submission (median, 0.8 vs 1.1 years; P=.04).Conclusion.—Among randomized efficacy trials, there is a time lag in the publication of negative findings that occurs mostly after the completion of the trial follow-up.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2018152980","numberInSourceReferences":3,"doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(97)08468-7","type":"article","title":"Summing up evidence: one answer is not always enough","authors":[{"id":"A5053201045","LN":"Lau","FN":"Joseph","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US)"},{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), Tufts University (US)"},{"id":"A5084057531","orcid":"0000-0002-0855-5313","LN":"Schmid","FN":"Christopher H.","affil":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (US), National Institutes of Health (US)"}],"year":1998,"date":"1998-01-01","journal":"Lancet (Elsevier BV)","volume":"351","issue":"9096","firstPage":"123","lastPage":"127","references":["W1933904409","W1963733265","W1972998769","W1974975370","W1977941148","W1980140122","W1982228885","W1982375973","W1994959188","W2001311017","W2004579934","W2007689247","W2016526647","W2019047076","W2035314238","W2036160497","W2040674676","W2046471988","W2056083953","W2056366475","W2075695367","W2078621964","W2079435918","W2084688828","W2086705478","W2093437752","W2099610513","W2099880429","W2106269465","W2107328434","W2113099921","W2158379591","W2328451703","W2470097850","W2895806954","W4214559180","W4231967728","W4233954896","W4240472481","W4293107555","W4293247677"],"referencesCount":41,"citationsCount":637,"abstract":"Are meta-analyses the brave new world, or are the critics of such combined analyses right to say that the biases inherent in clinical trials make them uncombinable? Negative trials are often unreported, and hence can be missed by meta-analysts. And how much heterogeneity between trials is acceptable? A recent major criticism is that large randomised trials do not always agree with a prior meta-analysis. Neither individual trials nor meta-analyses, reporting as they do on population effects, tell how to treat the individual patient. Here we take a more rounded approach to meta-analyses, arguing that their strengths outweigh their weaknesses, although the latter must not be brushed aside.","isRetracted":false}],"outgoingSuggestions":[{"id":"W2331384579","numberInSourceReferences":3,"doi":"10.1080/09332480.2005.10722754","type":"article","title":"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-09-01","journal":"Chance (Taylor & Francis)","volume":"18","issue":"4","firstPage":"40","lastPage":"47","references":["W1551600243","W1575982426","W1690786713","W1715602942","W1965992514","W1979423827","W1982375973","W1986360186","W1988934365","W1996647803","W2000442546","W2006372124","W2006825115","W2023839473","W2025651303","W2046875666","W2055157368","W2060512257","W2062248680","W2063068713","W2081814119","W2091947792","W2094934696","W2102945991","W2106631668","W2109363337","W2126436234","W2133774931","W2135010675","W2142960568","W2144659346","W2158304798","W2163139471","W2167098291","W4239525205","W4244516126"],"referencesCount":36,"citationsCount":1180,"abstract":"Summary There is increasing concern that most current published research fi ndings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientifi c fi eld. In this framework, a research fi nding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a fi eld are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater fl exibility in designs, defi nitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater fi nancial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientifi c fi eld in chase of statistical signifi cance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientifi c fi elds, claimed research fi ndings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research. It can be proven that most claimed research fi ndings are false.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2147833650","numberInSourceReferences":9,"doi":"10.1111/J.1533-2500.2005.05302.X","type":"article","title":"Evidence-Based Medicine and the Challenge of Low Back Pain: Where Are We Now?","authors":[{"id":"A5070442023","orcid":"0000-0001-9889-8610","LN":"Chou","FN":"Roger","affil":"Oregon Health & Science University (US)"}],"year":2005,"date":"2005-08-23","journal":"Pain practice (Wiley-Blackwell)","volume":"5","issue":"3","firstPage":"153","lastPage":"178","references":["W1247968195","W137187125","W139620411","W1487432611","W1503995466","W1506774621","W1541581356","W1550275457","W1556793270","W1606982357","W1714052158","W1715602942","W188675448","W190432982","W1929168249","W1952978608","W1964796004","W1965603218","W1966827231","W1967092410","W1967103249","W1969065401","W1971177159","W1971348077","W1974689215","W1975373110","W1975769749","W1976541880","W1976663972","W1978296110","W1978868802","W1979285610","W1979423827","W1980300818","W1981970927","W1982130175","W1983003584","W1984234160","W1985546163","W1986167527","W1986215651","W1987610069","W1990986174","W1991596234","W1992637165","W1992882333","W1993590250","W1994277369","W1994307831","W1994341534","W1994646188","W1994898034","W1996371941","W1996711637","W1996926218","W1997558108","W1997928928","W2000442546","W2002019773","W2004103849","W2005431696","W2008843150","W2010418295","W2010469723","W2011059504","W2012250213","W2012413208","W2012688065","W2013255694","W2014727734","W2015113283","W2015712245","W2018096710","W202007523","W2020580424","W2022971084","W2023133292","W2023153884","W2026178764","W2026203813","W2027586610","W2028748639","W2029045893","W2029616555","W2030346622","W2030956076","W2031385454","W2033680038","W2034401866","W2034680167","W2034956222","W2035314238","W2035664125","W2035944324","W2040823963","W2041221488","W2042355753","W2046566071","W2047330557","W2047562441","W2047695281","W2047892569","W2048498287","W2049615737","W2051556928","W2051621934","W2053586899","W2054099532","W2054190773","W2054215964","W2054272017","W2054884879","W2056366475","W2058119311","W2058359571","W2058584770","W2059581239","W2060091110","W2062025845","W2062310951","W2064296154","W2065121218","W2065854665","W2066657681","W2068548108","W2069201623","W2070426225","W2071887399","W2072134027","W2072995417","W2073271847","W2074408178","W2078059892","W2078757204","W2079382273","W2079603439","W2081360302","W2082320537","W2082940982","W2084917404","W2087086370","W2087678412","W2088323328","W2088438184","W2088783942","W2089953373","W2090061778","W2090775647","W2091601213","W2091905553","W2093752945","W2095430933","W2095734644","W2095805913","W2096656874","W2097110957","W2097885825","W2101592976","W2102326175","W2102696978","W2103114237","W2105662053","W2106876877","W2106952837","W2108425422","W2109229748","W2109322415","W2111416401","W2112279824","W2112689400","W2113241235","W2116938510","W2117866908","W2119012457","W2120515884","W2126550276","W2127750126","W2128553376","W2128655828","W2129573808","W2129829737","W2133721259","W2134338262","W2136284733","W2136334329","W2136575584","W2137179575","W2139000771","W2140091946","W2142155920","W2142947341","W2145513209","W2146715499","W2147928436","W2150798407","W2151479308","W2153149839","W2154867318","W2155997060","W2156148295","W2157954662","W2158304798","W2158454384","W2163139471","W2163848238","W2164693855","W2168226052","W2169416641","W2171306475","W2186309928","W2190766710","W220112480","W2233300032","W2313576834","W2314510470","W2314790286","W2317791064","W2319983832","W2320350515","W2323008516","W2325901017","W2327648646","W2329300391","W2332159918","W2333565005","W2338278742","W2384132444","W2399975345","W2413895194","W2423028615","W2518783293","W2528466831","W2616141209","W2738227539","W3006641047","W4214559180","W4236631466","W4239527626","W4241275127","W4242605405","W4245143020","W4250030511","W4251994223","W4296976415","W4297063083","W77078003","W80788041","W8747624"],"referencesCount":248,"citationsCount":29,"abstract":"Abstract: Low back pain has long been described as a challenge for both primary care physicians and specialists. Management of low back pain has also been criticized as frequently arbitrary, inappropriate, or ineffective. Contributing factors have been an inadequate evidence base and a need for more rigorous appraisals of the available literature. Evidence‐based medicine, an approach to clinical problem solving, is predicated on the premise that high‐quality health care will result from practices consistent with the best evidence. In contrast to the traditional medical paradigm that placed a heavy reliance on expert opinion, authority, and unsystematic clinical observations, evidence‐based medicine emphasizes the need for rigorous critical appraisals of the scientific literature to inform medical decision making. Evidence‐based medicine places strong weight on the requirement for valid studies, particularly randomized controlled trials, to appropriately evaluate the effectiveness of health care interventions. Because of the rapidly increasing volume of medical literature, however, most clinicians are unable to keep up‐to‐date with all the new data. Two types of preprocessed evidence that can aid busy clinicians in medical decision making are systematic reviews and evidence‐based clinical practice guidelines. Like primary studies, systematic reviews and clinical practice guidelines must adhere to high methodologic standards to reduce error and bias. As in other areas of medicine, the approach to the management of low back pain has been positively affected by the availability of more clinical trials and better use of critical appraisal techniques to evaluate and apply research findings. In addition to more rigorous primary studies, an increasing number of high‐quality systematic reviews and evidence‐based clinical practice guidelines for low back pain are also available. Although some research gaps and methodologic shortcomings persist, the richer evidence base has greatly improved our understanding of what does and does not work for low back pain. Despite these advances, the best available evidence often does not inform everyday clinical decisions for low back pain. Nonetheless, there is widespread agreement that adherence to evidence‐based practice will help improve low back pain patient outcomes and reduce arbitrary variations in care. This article reviews basic principles of evidence‐based medicine, discusses evidence‐based medicine in the context of low back pain management, and summarizes some useful evidence‐based medicine resources.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2102470393","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1111/J.1365-2362.2007.01794.X","type":"article","title":"Molecular evidence‐based medicine","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"University of Ioannina (GR), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR), Tufts University (US)"}],"year":2007,"date":"2007-04-24","journal":"European journal of clinical investigation (Wiley-Blackwell)","volume":"37","issue":"5","firstPage":"340","lastPage":"349","references":["W1247968195","W1480160846","W1503447259","W1544923801","W1549733517","W1575982426","W1690786713","W1966580149","W1968103573","W1968414845","W1968827386","W1971348077","W1971701254","W1972038920","W1973497290","W1976373787","W1977083089","W1986360186","W1988331797","W1989061648","W1990250261","W1991844126","W1994306321","W1994458586","W1994880204","W1996472067","W1996819439","W1998913367","W2000442546","W2005299356","W2007689247","W2008668946","W2009210241","W2010415533","W2012868495","W2013268532","W2014017198","W2014181699","W2018152980","W2020364507","W2020541351","W2021129827","W2022381538","W2023737881","W2024119733","W2024880773","W2027713703","W2030744495","W2030973337","W2033685408","W2035314238","W2035530476","W2035910394","W2036467699","W2043235003","W2044720356","W2050034605","W2051683917","W2052088499","W2053673723","W2060461430","W2062248680","W2064894883","W2065444835","W2066335775","W2068959829","W2076682535","W2077063914","W2079435918","W2080675410","W2081013809","W2081569317","W2081814119","W2084084945","W2084917404","W2086624421","W2086835855","W2088368849","W2089463633","W2090377930","W2091947792","W2094934696","W2095619853","W2096910745","W2100828460","W2102396640","W2102945991","W2103718021","W2105882193","W2106952837","W2108239621","W2113784410","W2116302563","W2121604817","W2124201592","W2126415088","W2126436234","W2126466006","W2127055837","W2127765911","W2128432283","W2128655828","W2131152203","W2132425160","W2133774931","W2134861067","W2135862015","W2136442709","W2139647754","W2142171035","W2143784594","W2144659346","W2144981148","W2147581820","W2148127781","W2156262955","W2156294597","W2157222645","W2157368934","W2160039183","W2160377567","W2167098291","W2168226052","W2169737291","W2322095705","W3192325788","W4232338416","W4253759977","W4300407353"],"referencesCount":129,"citationsCount":23,"abstract":"Abstract Evidence‐based medicine and molecular medicine have both been influential in biomedical research in the last 15 years. Despite following largely parallel routes to date, the goals and principles of evidence‐based and molecular medicine are complementary and they should be converging. I define molecular evidence‐based medicine as the study of medical information that makes sense of the advances of molecular biological disciplines and where errors and biases are properly appreciated and placed in context. Biomedical measurement capacity improves very rapidly. The exponentially growing mass of hypotheses being tested requires a new approach to both statistical and biological inference. Multidimensional biology requires careful exact replication of research findings, but indirect corroboration is often all that is achieved at best. Besides random error, bias remains a major threat. It is often difficult to separate bias from the spirit of scientific inquiry to force data into coherent and ‘significant’ biological stories. Transparency and public availability of protocols, data, analyses and results may be crucial to make sense of the complex biology of human disease and avoid being flooded by spurious research findings. Research efforts should be integrated across teams in an open, sharing environment. Most research in the future may be designed, performed, and integrated in the public cyberspace.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2503902669","numberInSourceReferences":8,"doi":"10.3109/9781420052923-19","type":"book-chapter","title":"Reporting and Interpreting Results","authors":[{"id":"A5064434034","orcid":"0009-0003-8616-5948","LN":"Little","FN":"Julian"}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-05-21","journal":"CRC Press eBooks 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global incidence of allergic reaction has been rising for years, especially within westernised urban areas. There is evidence that the interaction between pollen grains, environmental pollution and meteorological change is increasing the allergenicity of the pollen grain and consequently, increasing the misery of hay fever sufferers. Laboratory experiments have shown that the interaction of pollen with atmospheric oxidants such as ozone and nitrogen dioxide (\\(NO_2\\)) can alter protein molecules that are present within the pollen grains via post-translational modification of the protein. \r\n\r\nWithin the laboratory, birch pollen was exposed to atmospherically relevant exposures of gas phase \\(NO_2\\) and ozone under a range of environmentally relevant conditions (temperature and relative humidity RH). The effects of the exposures on the biochemistry of the pollen grains were probed using proteomic approach. The morphological changes of unexposed and exposed pollen samples to RH, rainwater and \\(NO_2\\), where observed under fluorescence microscopy and scanning electron microscope. The discoveries suggest that interaction between gas pollutants and pollen do exist and cause protein specific modifications; nitration. \r\n\r\nDetailed analysis of London Ambulance data compared to London temperature data is presented. The relationships established will allow for prediction of likely changes in ambulance demand (and illness types) that will be caused by seasonal temperature changes, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, due to climate change, in the future. \r\n\r\nThe study applied statistical analyses to examine short-term associations between birch pollen count with allergic related illnesses recorded in the London Ambulance data, temperature and \\(NO_2\\).","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2243629635","numberInSourceReferences":4,"doi":"10.1080/09332480.2019.1579573","type":"article","title":"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A."}],"year":2019,"date":"2019-01-02","journal":"Chance (Taylor & Francis)","volume":"32","issue":"1","firstPage":"4","lastPage":"13","references":["W1551600243","W1575982426","W1690786713","W1715602942","W1965992514","W1979423827","W1982375973","W1986360186","W1988934365","W1995461240","W1996647803","W2000442546","W2006372124","W2006825115","W2023839473","W2025651303","W2035314238","W2046875666","W2055157368","W2060512257","W2062248680","W2063068713","W2081814119","W2091947792","W2094934696","W2102945991","W2106631668","W2109363337","W2126436234","W2133774931","W2135010675","W2142960568","W2144659346","W2158304798","W2163139471","W2167098291"],"referencesCount":36,"citationsCount":136,"abstract":"There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field.  In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser pre-selection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance.  Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.","isRetracted":false},{"id":"W2182641014","numberInSourceReferences":5,"doi":"10.1055/B-0041-182651","type":"book-chapter","title":"1 Introduction to Evidence-Based Medicine","authors":[],"year":2021,"date":"2021-01-01","volume":null,"issue":null,"firstPage":null,"lastPage":null,"references":["W1498364240","W1522513710","W1551600243","W1575982426","W1690786713","W1715602942","W1965992514","W1979423827","W1982375973","W1986360186","W1988934365","W1995461240","W1996647803","W2000442546","W2006825115","W2023839473","W2035314238","W2046875666","W2060512257","W2062248680","W2062655436","W2063068713","W2081814119","W2091947792","W2094934696","W2102945991","W2106631668","W2109363337","W2126436234","W2133774931","W2142960568","W2144659346","W2158304798","W2163139471","W2167098291"],"referencesCount":35,"citationsCount":0,"isRetracted":false},{"id":"W3175338682","numberInSourceReferences":2,"doi":"10.1016/J.EVOPSY.2021.06.006","type":"article","title":"Pourquoi ne peut-on pas faire confiance à la plupart des résultats issus de la recherche ?","authors":[{"id":"A5070446713","LN":"Ioannidis","FN":"John P. A.","affil":"Tufts Medical Center (US), University of Ioannina (GR), Tufts University (US)"}],"year":2021,"date":"2021-09-01","journal":"Evolution psychiatrique/˜L'œEvolution psychiatrique (Elsevier BV)","volume":"86","issue":"3","firstPage":"443","lastPage":"454","references":["W1551600243","W1575982426","W1690786713","W1715602942","W1965992514","W1979423827","W1982375973","W1986360186","W1988934365","W1995461240","W1996647803","W2000442546","W2006372124","W2006825115","W2023839473","W2025651303","W2035314238","W2046875666","W2055157368","W2060512257","W2062248680","W2063068713","W2081814119","W2091947792","W2094934696","W2102945991","W2106631668","W2109363337","W2126436234","W2133774931","W2135010675","W2142960568","W2144659346","W2158304798","W2163139471","W2167098291"],"referencesCount":36,"citationsCount":2,"abstract":"Objectif.- On constate une préoccupation croissante concernant la véracité des publications scientifiques. La probabilité qu’un résultat publié soit vrai peut dépendre de la puissance de l’étude et d’éventuels biais ; du nombre d’autres études sur le même sujet ; et, de manière cruciale, du taux de résultats positifs par rapport à celui de résultats nuls parmi les rapports étudiés par chaque domaine scientifique. Des simulations sont effectuées pour évaluer la probabilité qu’un résultat publié soit faux. Dans ce contexte, un résultat a une moindre probabilité de véracité quand le nombre d’études similaires effectuées dans un domaine donné est petit ; quand les tailles d’effet sont plus petites ; quand le nombre de relations étudiées est plus important et leur présélection plus petite ; quand il y a une plus grande flexibilité dans le protocole, les définitions, les mesures et la modalité d’analyse ; quand il y a un plus grand intérêt financier (avec le biais qui peut l’accompagner) ; et quand plusieurs équipes dans un domaine sont engagées dans une course aux résultats qui soient statistiquement significatifs. Pour de nombreux champs de recherche actuels, des résultats publiés ne sont ni plus ni moins qu’un reflet fidèle des biais régnants. Dans cet essai, j’explore les implications de ces problèmes par rapport à la conduite et l’interprétation de la recherche. There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. Simulations are performed to assess the likelihood that a published result is false. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. For many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.","isRetracted":false}],"tabLabel":"Medicine meta-research","tabTitle":"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False","bookmarkletURL":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16060722/","API":"OpenAlex","allReferences":false,"allCitations":false,"timestamp":1717853361743,"localCitationNetworkVersion":1.24},{"source":{"id":"5f4253cd9b20839c0b56de5011b948eaf3bb8eab","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1038/S41558-022-01287-8","type":null,"title":"Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s","authors":[{"id":"3460476","LN":"Boulton","FN":"C."},{"id":"1789900","LN":"Lenton","FN":"T."},{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."}],"year":2021,"date":"2021-04-14","journal":"Nature Climate 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Resources","volume":"28","firstPage":"137","lastPage":"167","references":["b6178a5917c3d05f7eb15304528960efc83b13e5","65e4451fde6ed7d76d881edcc9e5f79867630bee","824f5d2e6ff2be23914701a2f67672bb9ff8e8d0","1ffe0ed6cee22ffd00d017077a0ef50b22f44a02","94145e0686b4b2640a4e46b8b9756b5555aa03c3","1fff3ac81629f3a1d14e19fd97dfe1c36cc7a3ef","9e26c1774ed9d8699e5922cc93ad5d522ea3dd19","2fe14a4437b349d744b1d375836ebc7b44395840","080f7b49703eac4212ea9a3a0f362bb503cf0ac4","b8d4198aafc37b298bd71ef0517bd64dba380fe2","0236e6bc9b8e7d3986b1925416c64769df90220a","169df12bcba2fe44d8e41c3fdc885944a7e24afa","cc989790c2b4a58b5418408163558138be8fcd87","e2e299c708a72d3100663ff7029252397ca90ed1","f3dc87718d9cd31bb66e59c928c0a20ccce794ef","e056b7f266f0ec403c5be82432dbbcd467028732","af21dc924771dcf6da8abcee23bb892437544e5a","db2b2daad34f35997b2cf78575d82cb8043c7921","7eb3285c75e6cacc53f353d64e5df6019a3059b0","26d24614611fa00f3f0efb7a6c8b277e5744a2df","c98f543d051d2f96791aeb411d5d3f7321366a86","46df18bed9e9f08dfc3b0769ac2edd36f46668af","14a8e00d26951a97850e87127e4d0daa7275d7f1","4555ab7f5c362a75ae8ce3143652b0a9376e9941","1eafe092a6845b07323ced13d09c09e5468997f0","61143d56fdb95167064d3c57f1619e18ee644207","aace570f26bc587f5e8cbe2aaf4539fa2f58932a","fefdea542c01bf9fc6280281fd81b59162201377","a72a642be9003312f40ca09824319530bdd38744","fe47443775523da3e7eed8afb5db15d329ac36a3","9b39304753968279531ce40cab74a7c76d675cd7","6736ae8ac75816d07f48747df58937fa88eae70f","fb05935895e779b285f06cd576909888e8e2f43b","59ff863ecaa090b9de6b0546ffc9b9a96a23381b","a86d9f01a7240ab9c0bf432979d0a9665fe900af","7d50ded3e283b23d24f1a1c7f38e34ef639074c9","b6222d5b02c2f2a98c349df885f7ecdb4f17c07d","4baa4527e3ca31980b0458cd0ef829b02562f24f","313da42446962e9455aef1f5cabfe2ca9e54f108","806a3b704880c60c2201ec47f66d968a5ecdca7a","8d1b2ac6e9c5f2117a6a66d9b1514a96e204b0d6","112419451ffc950b6960400625cef07b2b4bb69c","a6dca2fa5eb8fd9012cdea9eb72c001df2c1c013","f44be8ee5012a20eb6cf1e01c2c04ad376c5990b","35e3a767f431a786a80f8e21e3d503257f37390b","bb0274d80d0c8f9d8fcc2827586e414e37ab05e1","e7b00ca10b9400cb206c3b04942b80ca2e8566d3","bf492955133fb500d9504546b59d79c145ee7d7d","65b34df8a99723763aeec26868f0494c471bfa3b","5ae37fd8df5ea78105e02d7c60890e8101d67804","c1c303c5a650e277ae282a529b67042fded4c72d","09cd71b29d32e0f891fdd6ea022fddb2deb98b4d","5aa1b6f7522739c34c2969a36ed8e749af0e2ff0",null,"beab115c13106fe7a2e2f2b0a7a1b648a0ca757b",null,"842707dc3181d936a8ef1f1759735c2d09d549ec",null,null,"2577c28b9b1a09950a6fff7e6af6e9b918ad7042",null,null,"4c19140912abe1ead0449104c44ac13d53107622",null,"761f226d47dffce5ff959ae13fe4ca217da3ed24",null,null,null,null,"7485778e9dab7b26a8514b51db9b24f91dda8fc7","0c102887261c13a69086743942c37ff651882314","c84251ece03c721c630c0aff431dd16ad57b88fe","1026af38a4087858fdc86c5d2295eca031012c39","a1a63a8c0a7b10325fa0b99a09d4dabdacf88b23","a9d1e247dfe2bd7acb3fcbbd7e856e1fda8697a7"],"referencesCount":75,"citationsCount":1205,"abstract":"▪ Abstract Biodiversity, a central component of Earth's life support systems, is directly relevant to human societies. We examine the dimensions and nature of the Earth's terrestrial biodiversity and review the scientific facts concerning the rate of loss of biodiversity and the drivers of this loss. The estimate for the total number of species of eukaryotic organisms possible lies in the 5–15 million range, with a best guess of ∼7 million. Species diversity is unevenly distributed; the highest concentrations are in tropical ecosystems. Endemisms are concentrated in a few hotspots, which are in turn seriously threatened by habitat destruction—the most prominent driver of biodiversity loss. For the past 300 years, recorded extinctions for a few groups of organisms reveal rates of extinction at least several hundred times the rate expected on the basis of the geological record. The loss of biodiversity is the only truly irreversible global environmental change the Earth faces today.","tldr":"The dimensions and nature of the Earth's terrestrial biodiversity are examined, and the scientific facts concerning the rate of loss of biodiversity and the drivers of this loss are reviewed."},{"id":"7411530aa26843b62f9174fa9d004bab72e476dc","numberInSourceReferences":49,"doi":"10.1029/2002JD002670","type":null,"title":"Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century","authors":[{"id":"40333590","LN":"Rayner","FN":"N."},{"id":"48230829","LN":"Parker","FN":"D."},{"id":"103221489","LN":"Horton","FN":"E. B."},{"id":"5290030","LN":"Folland","FN":"C."},{"id":"144654623","LN":"Alexander","FN":"L."},{"id":"46466856","LN":"Rowell","FN":"D."},{"id":"145047980","LN":"Kent","FN":"Elizabeth C."},{"id":"144098502","LN":"Kaplan","FN":"A."}],"year":2003,"date":"2003-07-27","journal":"Journal of Geophysical Research","volume":"108","firstPage":"4407","references":["c42360f9191857628f6e29da09aac69106ae8b18","c5602ec7babf8b64a98cd3052906f808e73b8376","47d38a1b253a5e0ad24ab64549229803c2541afd","295908215a6ed8a8aeb3d7571e03b5903ea1dc35","d5dcbcfd49d5e779d747b836f39e69aa1e22994f","a36b281bd0fac2d31fae0610275857280ee5a275","34fa0ae0a8b1949eda8902fc28d331b3a7bb90d5","5a87617d0acf59ae487bfd5d89d8c14006d67010","3ba5f1a41d284c9efe344df0d068e052b50db2d2","5856fab9a89bf12156b2190ba5403cfac7796fad","818a1a393eb9b02fa32937234fd4f84223ba8154","926f7d451ff1820200fe3e030ddcaa9ec838bcad","17a18868284526d0b5f232e9c1897ee5b9cc0c60","5c5815ee30de74bb6cab1cc7bfb5d991b093cb3b","091a73473d335fa00f8c3b0a3f50ac8212c0d7c0","ca6b5758a0103ac51f459220430c7b4673c3fa8e","5b5801b4c1ab98061c09fb0024384333d4c13668","03c6b53aaee810f6acc111787ee6f4496fb0835b","0a8882a78792cfeb3d07832236e50b2e8e8ccf18","0f2dbb867c3613f6bc2e099e8971af191040aed6","73bcaa3b579d3abc7a4fc165bbeeac76ceef8ae9","f81a7b31445391504642633fbff8ca6b29114b44","f4a6c0c75d97d36eed5e3e763583236693f17577","2a32bdc04850e9ea79974979d6fad1f75c182ffe","2174a398f9114b7694760775603087ca8daaa413","28c95023b4c6319f5d535aec36ce3c4de5c22a42","5990f4f4d11c49c31e080086b903e3ece9048113","714bc5caadbdfd361e5213b3d48ca49b1ab95806","c66e33bfd4e667245c77ca7fa3b00f6473692d3a","59f632f3389590c3901dad6eafb755cc72156b51","4f14d0e480cd6cf4ee70cd97ac14e6db132d25e4","18e957e51c1d42817afd929b08594ccf68a6cb05","0c55f9cb9167805b07f6a47cac90dfe6f76eda0f","021c8120f46c30dbe125766277f9e215776adbd5","fdb43a622cb37c00ea3fae567944792721e4b332","be7191af5672c41961c5af922d7d7e0d7c65801b","e4bb47f9120afdd70a3e236c8b8df02f5c3b225a","01c11ec82a1b56ee16dfb467083980d9b9d07845","05238537ac024fe9b15ee524b08bec3fcfea8618","d5964a9dd23f8d644cd4f39d15e61e39d86915f9","97cc989d194a989b31496f14f57bd004d90d49e3","cf95aa88e3af0d13fc26e1211e359cc39a2a96e6","bbee0c557be5e5a4da05a2509084fe1123cb0986","a528a6ac54b58d0aecf876b062eecee980b4b93d","120f7d48d166d2462bfff0c6ede8f4b6766c0698","6619f1f7827a84fb869ffcabfaa66d15e3332e4d","90cbc9d5d8b529cb84697b66d7e26e7d7daf9401","779839d50c48ecf05c31c642ee1aa2d5c986c4ad","e821a311bf3b65d1d65d796dc4b6d6448e0627b6","3d4e6c1a04faec4ac1e24288d51f796a8c59f487","371f9cee95a4771c251e65dbf0cdc00a9be1cd6c","d15ae61e5e91c9ae03318eb306068b1deafa074b","eb8dcd095ec1b5445d27c5179583c3ee2bc4851d","51c52e315cda68158fa5328037d5ff8f67d96fa9","d53dc8321b014af9e8f6835a256a28ae9449f0bc","486a7a4cff1858895c77643e87aafd2f82aa0393","8838cc9d7218a10c482f3844259d720441d9e19a","afcb24f56054b7cd3b73f9e7e3303c3e987a80e1",null,"774e8d544542686c58c1be0ab913a070246d815a","316d262415efc1d355bae868dfd2dcce8ef61524","db975f2fb0c675ccbb97047ec92f30f1eaa9ef66","ba10111bbdddbf13da4e691f497f2fba06e87669","d13de6bea9cf058c834bfa42b00c103e6f035a51","554acf18f3865d9024e0038b058bcde85521dc45","46e93763dee97d868b20a9cdda9c4410a24b4b0f",null,"1e1addd01e769a0a42888f3dcc1a66bceb54aae1","a2d41b5d0f4e4a02a1a5d6aaae3ec952916c7817",null,null,null,"58d617075b07647bebbb9af89221b59c4b5da855","eb8967622973a360273b488c554b4a83cb1ab2ba",null,"257d53c3c74b3af35a6473a0496f2c671e10df63","13a630d49a815e3b518b75636bacb51fccef22e1","57f1f5f3917ad385f77eb12d53e41d0e7655c471","5463fb2a50f6e01c52ddb438bc179bfe96ddb0fe","de05531bbfb67304eed510513c1e9a3150484b47",null,null,"3ebbd2c44c22d7dc9989dfd73e34c9a8063423f8",null,null,null,null],"referencesCount":87,"citationsCount":9037,"abstract":"[1] We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets."},{"id":"70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","numberInSourceReferences":26,"doi":"10.1029/2004GL020972","type":null,"title":"Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting","authors":[{"id":"145735157","LN":"Held","FN":"H."},{"id":"13664304","LN":"Kleinen","FN":"T."}],"year":2004,"date":"2004-12-16","journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"31","references":["279888a4729cf2910aa5c048ea8704d8cb95e0e8","594fa59342e28e6f627123a2f56faf794f359bd4","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","fd794aac5f2592fde6146aa2c8618fba7e38754f","d27b49310ec37048e93c6a85a23e9c285ce8ae3c","cad4d2282c84628b810c5a99258c4a60b641744e","16fa67e37d9c114f63a01345286bfff3d4878e11","9ff0d8cc7fdc9b3f0440100e308adfa6e7096c9e","9a4c0aacbc4f87c7de54d185b70b0d7d1c64356f","8d6c456151ae3a59909406e223e76b372e92d9d9","82400aa057e200cc72ee9ed9021dce4c5e464cca","02da68e9ceddef6fe9e1a7042229609bca635b82","bdb15624d725cc38f2dd8c73dd6e01b4ca13316e","247ea97aa51b4ecc11f9fa0bdc62680470add857","661903691f83b293b7175be8f62a947006964131","fb0f84092776169eb2afde1c08c884b7100f14b2",null,null,null],"referencesCount":19,"citationsCount":247,"abstract":"A method is introduced to estimate the proximity of climate sub‐systems to non‐linear thresholds. We suggest to measure the smallest decay rate of the system under investigation and to consider its trend. We argue that this is the diagnostic variable most directly linked to the distance from a bifurcation threshold. With the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2 we demonstrate our method for the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. It is shown that proper analysis of paleo information could significantly reduce the uncertainty which plagues current estimates of the distance from the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation."},{"id":"37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","numberInSourceReferences":10,"doi":"10.1038/NATURE06960","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution","authors":[{"id":"48372668","LN":"Cox","FN":"P."},{"id":"29845971","LN":"Harris","FN":"P."},{"id":"39624270","LN":"Huntingford","FN":"C."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."},{"id":"144426391","LN":"Collins","FN":"M."},{"id":"39448670","LN":"Jones","FN":"C."},{"id":"6216381","LN":"Jupp","FN":"T."},{"id":"2473622","LN":"Marengo","FN":"J."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-05-08","journal":"Nature","volume":"453","firstPage":"212","lastPage":"215","references":["1b4d9ee96d24041e896dc9e66aa5efab5bcffa35","4289108f3c3eea60c64b38d3ffaf3cf3ec5097a7","3f150810eff352fda0f59671bcc75b3f70db759c","987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","e7a6b0a06645d9f66f46300ddcb7415e22d445e6","609cd0bc2351ddb76777332c95db3ef8a2b04f3a","605b343e708fec10c0172696b393236b3882f6ae","4d322876371e3d284b9fa663f205c0dcbb98d5c7","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","7411530aa26843b62f9174fa9d004bab72e476dc","4b50133d32e861d43a20df41c42d13a86a8e6845","90f7bdbd989d77ab2813895f65357aa7f717aeb9","d8d9df30536e6309bb27721c78c99cd3f5b92491","4089b49dfc4eccea01bd85f7ce32acb9e456de05","4d1b4b37e042609799eb31e15e35ca52d021a9df","ff77d554e4174900682f17e13834b1a56052fb81","f4c3d185ae0b0ed44765b2c8582671bc49c5db60","b1ab3f8630920ccaa9ad0ad74df3c7511daea4c3","6dfcb2e9c8a609fb7edadedc63e950ce503c7bf3","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","d262075b7e6132be1eb220e5aca6104fa52cd869","0f43146e8240f1204a7f1884311c17236d331d6b","de21e86593d886ca629fd9a232a8a26cba75ed8b","7dedeb1d928ff8c4e6d0d9fccee1abc431bb528d","38ac8621e56003d0c91ecf4e3d24f403f28d5a9d","da915da6d90dcda4b6d2cd882f61af0a37aa2551","70e24a2b7387c2029c78c92f7267ff49712c41a8","0693611f67136513e2737db2c9421649143b832c","92e2b79d56fe1212902f34d8125542e56f602311","ed5d20511f9087309f91fcd6504960baf101bce3","7dda8c5ee7154fbcf2c7a4bb31ce1d9c9feca347",null,null,"b214624cfd3764c091804c73ed213d4f85f03cba",null,"4d619b602c109930fccec728c2ad11b5da84c062",null,null,null],"referencesCount":39,"citationsCount":391,"abstract":null,"tldr":"Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere."},{"id":"4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","numberInSourceReferences":25,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.0802430105","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change","authors":[{"id":"49546110","LN":"Dakos","FN":"V."},{"id":"145644167","LN":"Scheffer","FN":"M."},{"id":"7606675","LN":"Nes","FN":"E. V. van"},{"id":"4262118","LN":"Brovkin","FN":"V."},{"id":"49490746","LN":"Petoukhov","FN":"V."},{"id":"145735157","LN":"Held","FN":"H."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-09-23","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","volume":"105","firstPage":"14308","lastPage":"14312","references":["389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","4fdaab7ad3f1fdfba9ad5f3639a7ef0ad66a67f4","c2a8c3de259cc8b1b7aeda2631032424f9d11020","59a0dd6f40fbcbf012f236fe51edc6d7f13c5fb9","d9ec00b069a63c037aa812c6869379e86f73953c","70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","279888a4729cf2910aa5c048ea8704d8cb95e0e8","7899634455f5de4c6b0e48fc366eac5efd86bb9f","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","ff2da6eff8b9d48333de57d65bf67663d7cca4ec","b4f0e81cc4b209088d2356c5c3612502f8a597db","53003677ba3551efef6c518efb5b74ac5eca68ca","faa8d78e3cbb1f1e814a2808c56f8d08f0a06c74","d27b49310ec37048e93c6a85a23e9c285ce8ae3c","b42d086a277decd119577d8cd2ef3444d7a72157","b95157e40bcd3ed7a2c380a19356fee9124fac3b","167f525c65c2d9746b7db3905522f2e17402a2d0","0a2938a6f5acd2f9d7515be93cfd0195ce5d287b","9a4c0aacbc4f87c7de54d185b70b0d7d1c64356f","32791891ffb166cbad7e33590cd508d15a7db29b","99f7850df47c54956b38ae817a2484b8cbb3d507","a64443fb1038b6526c4a3950b3eb25ad6a7caa53","fe3c857107548cb60b08406460ea4160a9d15ba1","a7bd74b677f5dcd65cfceb6dfb45519cb8bc53bf","0c52c31b39ef4b52554c17fc7f01bf6cb095fd29","324e58b59b4cac7228aa83b4ed954ddda655b547","1968d22f1c2539e23bb9661c3a7c5939b3f8afcc","acce9f9d6e1213329110a4fefaa71690b49c454e","074a436cfe76e4c8965890e45fde5ad932c79531","a2015e3946a2c041d0ffc52a852cfb91da7e2769","b9666dfce48ea18ef9676297dcc6cb62a85fefde","53564c45fe0af4889c92f05b04626f7ac739a97a","1d11b8e700d1107c3854916ec9de076eb4beb3ce","8004847c2995e26d04229a40d4c18c92647bb74b","0dfe4bc64e7bba228d92ae51912f8d6a14468273","d4d67049406304dc4716058125d19cfd84dd1957","47c6fe4fa88efd71fabad6897eee0d0306c26741",null,null,"5dbf7911fa12062fbe69f5633180d151883c8eda"],"referencesCount":40,"citationsCount":823,"abstract":"In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective.","tldr":"This work analyzes eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and shows that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift, implying independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds."},{"id":"706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","numberInSourceReferences":3,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.1146961","type":["Review","JournalArticle"],"title":"Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon","authors":[{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"152300833","LN":"Roberts","FN":"J."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."},{"id":"117212348","LN":"Killeen","FN":"T."},{"id":"2108769467","LN":"Li","FN":"Wenhong"},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-01-11","journal":"Science","volume":"319","firstPage":"169","lastPage":"172","references":["35688d70a82748021b15bf97a4cebad5e52b57b5","e3b85621274dad81a33ec4b7d07e3ba1857597dc","d36feb2e0f610c825e01b1ef2eef187bc61352b3","c7348503354071f9ac4d76a922c15bee391431fd","ce2f70fabf3495fa0d661b662c730a971472cc4d","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","f2732801f7cbbbf588705f10c12be24605830dee","4ff8ce4e0c661ea89e0107d81083b6e90841571f","e386aec723b58437195bad9486d2d6a959fe2a8c","fee78ff685c88c2211e19e82b5f7c124f7bc959d","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","995d5441acd26da84ce4aa6864876e17d9762c73","a8ee4ef420c2c6a90ee221bcb74b1663e111675c","609cd0bc2351ddb76777332c95db3ef8a2b04f3a","91887a0bf5788a99ac5a7cf130bcf60cf8e79c75","fb789046671b2615d7c2d5a4e41d9a55c66cfd5b","b6178a5917c3d05f7eb15304528960efc83b13e5","dd1bb4e85133c9a51149d1a5d10bb6ff2e595b9b","24ad0ab663766a08ee9001b58d725b2af5d3862a","35d2b9da90cde935dcf1ace9b4e12b33ce889279","29e0b01bab1c7cea2a91f55ff0624162654ef127","53919d771d66d723a5eeacf39a655206ab92d86a","4d322876371e3d284b9fa663f205c0dcbb98d5c7","9119754545a6deab1580bc67c56d38e05b32575e","090256bdc67eace0034cdc673595803cede39617","6f7c1306ab69379df6df8214bf5d140af053df7e","db5c2c422cb1f5fc9ccdc4c01b79904149288f50","d7b66a1f1c7181e2474062552d79cabfa9f0646f","34af8278b0a32fb2f5b3889c0e1213cff11e5c84","b9bfa59b4e92d76d84a5041438427663f87e2b1c","614f0a07eab4d3240918acda9ca6180b58e89b19","2b0dd59254ed9d1255f817e427ede2c9f53e5e5f","5ce44e4dce04761cd512f79242511b977a1b9a52","a2ffe92732622c4a7321dade663b03f0dc0d998c","4d26fcdc12504863140e64c149e3b9caa61cd303","6fcaeb14809751eeaa8ab071b2651efeb2b52004","c925b0563a7220f9d16ac85d66c1bd8ca335ca0b","ca3896c4318f728e2872f84fe70e97cfdb68481d","459ee19c9e39df89c7b5e3c34f9a67198d05de17","de0ac973dfb9dde93b4631642094347cfd632491","0707bb3c3139e9d3ddc1e9cb37aeb19436c76ed1","fbfb5fb4646201931a819cb96a7b7971a45de5ca","2fbcdd66c7ddcc5ca9ee04aeead8efe98eb3ad0e","a4a3c78685d591735decf34d0eb10a83d0208235","4ffd7867723c4b8de7ca25bd06906e8142c87296","95bc406687c3da6ebecc31a1710eb1207ea75b3d","8c403a4d7691dfffc5d55649ebd309dc1171efad",null,"acea7ea50129a20cd2afcc6ab96e1dc40d4addc6","17377fa1f57f01817679851cc8a1f613a00b3b99",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"6f399b82412689b9a0adeadd41d4da507343a174",null,"89169870d9cf9d55ddbd060884f7a96fff366382"],"referencesCount":71,"citationsCount":1629,"abstract":"The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.","tldr":"The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system, and this century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change."},{"id":"df6ade47d3bbab757e8fcf6b3f026b7d3d44ed01","numberInSourceReferences":21,"doi":"10.1111/J.1365-2486.2008.01626.X","type":null,"title":"Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)","authors":[{"id":"3728155","LN":"Sitch","FN":"S."},{"id":"39624270","LN":"Huntingford","FN":"C."},{"id":"5304535","LN":"Gedney","FN":"N."},{"id":"30058751","LN":"Levy","FN":"P."},{"id":"34595232","LN":"Lomas","FN":"M."},{"id":"1751339","LN":"Piao","FN":"S."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."},{"id":"1845504","LN":"Ciais","FN":"P."},{"id":"48372668","LN":"Cox","FN":"P."},{"id":"4213663","LN":"Friedlingstein","FN":"P."},{"id":"39448670","LN":"Jones","FN":"C."},{"id":"51915849","LN":"Prentice","FN":"I."},{"id":"48282014","LN":"Woodward","FN":"F."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-09-01","journal":"Global Change 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study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO2, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO2 content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels."},{"id":"389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.0705414105","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system","authors":[{"id":"1789900","LN":"Lenton","FN":"T."},{"id":"145735157","LN":"Held","FN":"H."},{"id":"2304547","LN":"Kriegler","FN":"E."},{"id":"145250211","orcid":"0000-0002-2024-9191","LN":"Hall","FN":"Jim W","affil":"University of Oxford"},{"id":"145369034","LN":"Lucht","FN":"W."},{"id":"1720524","LN":"Rahmstorf","FN":"S."},{"id":"92187834","LN":"Schellnhuber","FN":"H."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-02-01","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of 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term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.","tldr":"It is explained how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points, and critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing."},{"id":"be3eda717b99731f93de80d75031f38e40f84cee","numberInSourceReferences":16,"doi":"10.1038/NGEO555","type":null,"title":"Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change","authors":[{"id":"39448670","LN":"Jones","FN":"C."},{"id":"144813379","LN":"Lowe","FN":"J."},{"id":"117186165","LN":"Liddicoat","FN":"S."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."}],"year":2009,"date":"2009-06-28","journal":"Nature 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back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it","authors":[{"id":"40571041","LN":"Biggs","FN":"R."},{"id":"35280006","LN":"Carpenter","FN":"S."},{"id":"48680294","LN":"Brock","FN":"W."}],"year":2009,"date":"2009-01-20","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of 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regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts.","tldr":"To improve usefulness in averting ecological regime shifts, research is suggested to focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators, and a new spectral density ratio indicator is presented."},{"id":"c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","numberInSourceReferences":23,"doi":"10.1038/NATURE08227","type":["Review","JournalArticle"],"title":"Early-warning signals for critical transitions","authors":[{"id":"145644167","LN":"Scheffer","FN":"M."},{"id":"3001050","LN":"Bascompte","FN":"J."},{"id":"48680294","LN":"Brock","FN":"W."},{"id":"4262118","LN":"Brovkin","FN":"V."},{"id":"35280006","LN":"Carpenter","FN":"S."},{"id":"49546110","LN":"Dakos","FN":"V."},{"id":"145735157","LN":"Held","FN":"H."},{"id":"1708791","LN":"Nes","FN":"E. V."},{"id":"4168817","LN":"Rietkerk","FN":"M."},{"id":"5876525","LN":"Sugihara","FN":"G."}],"year":2009,"date":"2009-09-03","journal":"Nature","volume":"461","firstPage":"53","lastPage":"59","references":["37e82d892fb3231508d1f16512cd484cd2e8490e","314938da2de86a7d561bff418c9988e1d1065134","a145688bd5a913b70401420e67e42a1aecdcbb8a","5996a3d5ddb08c2ef8517705f2b98c91dbb56d61","7d0ad769b96e9dfd98bf7b1dc33e5997c2984fbf","ede991298d0dada9f548f75c082add8577d92c09","d083ed62901ba09ca1020f1a18789995ac65d41c","7bc019d3bf9b9ecc293c6e97b1b76055ced6692d","6f321d5ceecc733d061e4d35517f374bce6d055d","6e93fbb3d843fafca46c527eb78f3b226e306c12","7cbba074ef4090e8e3c2c09b3c65751ea4f4ab69","6e5eb893ff9e44efd47baea3632f378d6a821059","4e16328e599e9d3169f40b6dbfbd039b4ca673a2","6c6ab4c7692cacb7ce7fa6b2cb893d0357e9e6f6","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","8ab124f2f2352d2477198db630ce7ec35560322e","422a005728c37970e7e2f766a476baf62652a1ac","8f8d2d73883cac979bb9b9c1809e7ccde8851ecf","cb35f0d07a092788f97b8c69894fe62f0e115f93","389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","4638f8624e610e5a5b3be998825e2d7b803a1c85","f2d5fed839628e54cf440d4a87d149e6b14c2a56","a552ddc65a4464c03a23dea04d410cbeaec3fa15","62a3154648d830e4ca1d22b45e530c8a184f35ad","c2a8c3de259cc8b1b7aeda2631032424f9d11020","3c4e52928803a9250438af406389979eb76d530e","59a0dd6f40fbcbf012f236fe51edc6d7f13c5fb9","afb9ad2b630e5cd4e165ee91f96668afc26cfad3","2d6dd101f20b793a66e9e6bbc444af7dde34ba35","66ece56fad0abf74bc3d4299caff0399fc6ee926","72c00952904ed0dfced9e22b55bfe96d4bc08242","af1f87c4778f2bf0f0f78d187b084f796bd26aea","d68b65e5e536e848d934a629e21eb7c1f256dabb","d9ec00b069a63c037aa812c6869379e86f73953c","73dc04e9f9aa69b5c1270cfdd89efb51be575d7f","05dbbdc4b96da4cd028440016c41cc9ea6bd7666","2a0749961708a527caa20efdd2f744ab52248f0f","b200acf6f41169cd524754138b70f00e7ce8f13c","70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","6ba3fb26c35e0e003103ecfd0e01c8385614d4ca","90ab5710d2a701c30b638d97237085441df7200b","8c2257a33be30bdc440318b1ef142ef9b5555560","98991df18acd52d37e2cdac821e32c143fa79064","0d2726cc81fa31921d8836a18585103142c241f1","8cdb2602ae7a6ee7584b58ceb43fdfcf7164abdf","2a3c1d2ea24b689371ff1c9b31599d12bfc04689","4b0412927346a036bff4fd6bac01fdab06b804e9","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","73ce32ca0f75ea7a210ffa0fcc5ebf7d57dfca52","16ac49662bf6e2a83182ec27c3a3393d2eaa8edc","6e50db4816074bdeab93371cf265cc3c31bb2581","c5ba3b8b4b75b234ec062442bd4acc85efcef171","672dd6422b29fa7cbc31187e91009f25c4a7cf63","53003677ba3551efef6c518efb5b74ac5eca68ca","50db24cdf3b36ed1ab4f581f528cb81d774da747","faa8d78e3cbb1f1e814a2808c56f8d08f0a06c74","a86d631f64d7b5532d6ce6fbed06901b4e3cc3e2","bbed67a71c14e6f04fb960276efa807db85e3ec4","9bf0a9ba48ac7d69309ace498b66166a773ba11a","cdb772af216e6491cd85985543a778782eaa6a20","a5acee8663c607529b14c0c8c5368f1f0e665217","e03aa06a095320a432b7e03ac622a4f34dc13e69","040cf270a29fdc25a4bcc03876c83c1e2ab054e0","ca38b1515b15480dced289389e6818e3b689d020","37ea262fb99beb8bf9dcb8406400d491aab40a0b","f80ab2226cc7e7ac093462ce19258c56ef773d31","99f7850df47c54956b38ae817a2484b8cbb3d507","ba5e12a008a5dd45adb9b54e4281dabdfa759747","8b908eb28a06d19e63ef5d6a9ec7fc6342d41fb8","081f1c93a5762f66c87929efb1fa2be002e7c7b6","8d4b4f4a9deedd22b9c04bf9b7c7a6cd3b2da3cd","58ce1d7a8ad91610ee8f4a93c54fceacb73f5465","e976626fd00f298aac7a22072c19f97da62a92d9","1968d22f1c2539e23bb9661c3a7c5939b3f8afcc","acce9f9d6e1213329110a4fefaa71690b49c454e","aeb27f9b4bef0875d2d34b4b603651e4dcf6bbdf","0942b69c0feabe0790a2d685a36cec6fca13d1f5","c128ef84b7839ab82fb88729f14a428e4b12f6d6","a30c6cdea7fc9cc77353c3aef7822f91bee662f8","2ebb234f4481c7e9779c81430a907fd6df118a2a","53564c45fe0af4889c92f05b04626f7ac739a97a","95f3a22272b0ce87f6cf85dd6e1026e4a5c0aeba","c6741d3813dbc98192952850844139cb3e4e3eaa","22bf6bccf7da09e60943040beebcdb2f2a0ff840","d92623de6739b6bf5200ee8217bf1643110ac1b6","23f40dcca2bb2da6f3043f339d7356d02e9eba51","d635e2843c6fb034e9126aa73ef9c2e4e2c4714d",null,null,null,"794fff98cad8d7bd0257dd1c0038fd1a6c2d8f30",null,null,"5222592cd0cb31cf86c9b63def6454ee8451a551",null,"26f3857d4837cc48c6d055e6d2558f7b6179ea3f","02786c166709112844858e53bedf26845964081b","491316fcb747586dc24e454397c52337ca1910ae","bf1136409b65a4532b2342371a964f8b33339588","647f2747ca0768f43678b7ced4b7fc52e400d20c","a84e3d6cbfd036727f54213b105a784d519a18d1",null,null,null,null],"referencesCount":105,"citationsCount":3603,"abstract":null,"tldr":"Work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching."},{"id":"0de477d496b226525e56d2e6591a7721697dc2a8","numberInSourceReferences":14,"doi":"10.1111/J.1461-0248.2010.01497.X","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Testing for criticality in ecosystem dynamics: the case of Amazonian rainforest and savanna fire.","authors":[{"id":"15736532","LN":"Pueyo","FN":"S."},{"id":"9516372","LN":"Graça","FN":"Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro"},{"id":"11670229","LN":"Barbosa","FN":"R."},{"id":"1401878665","LN":"Cots","FN":"Ricard"},{"id":"2074257759","LN":"Cardona","FN":"Eva"},{"id":"4743617","LN":"Fearnside","FN":"P."}],"year":2010,"date":"2010-07-01","journal":"Ecology letters","volume":"13 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test for two critical phenomena in Amazonian ecosystems: self-organized criticality (SOC) and critical transitions. SOC is often presented in the complex systems literature as a general explanation for scale invariance in nature. In particular, this mechanism is claimed to underlie the macroscopic structure and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. These would be inextricably linked to the action of fire, which is conceived as an endogenous ecological process. We show that Amazonian savanna fires display the scale-invariant features characteristic of SOC but do not display SOC. The same is true in Amazonian rainforests subject to moderate drought. These findings prove that there are other causes of scale invariance in ecosystems. In contrast, we do find evidence of a critical transition to a megafire regime under extreme drought in rainforests; this phenomenon is likely to determine the time scale of a possible loss of Amazonian rainforest caused by climate change.","tldr":"It is shown that Amazonian savanna fires display the scale-invariant features characteristic of SOC but do not display SOC; the same is true in Amazonian rainforests subject to moderate drought, proving that there are other causes of scale invariance in ecosystems."},{"id":"045555ec4342da07074949f540bc615cb8c453cf","numberInSourceReferences":20,"doi":"10.1111/J.1365-2486.2009.02157.X","type":null,"title":"Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters","authors":[{"id":"144853616","LN":"Poulter","FN":"B."},{"id":"3079572","LN":"Hattermann","FN":"F."},{"id":"143824624","LN":"Hawkins","FN":"E."},{"id":"4640770","LN":"Zaehle","FN":"S."},{"id":"3728155","LN":"Sitch","FN":"S."},{"id":"1397966798","LN":"Restrepo-Coupe","FN":"N."},{"id":"4672143","LN":"Heyder","FN":"U."},{"id":"143793523","LN":"Cramer","FN":"W."}],"year":2010,"date":"2010-09-01","journal":"Global Change Biology","volume":"16","references":["8465d01c40d89688d58d66cac6c2b8baeb1ee8d4","35688d70a82748021b15bf97a4cebad5e52b57b5","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","4b045f206ddd27d9d897dff2417d94f479cdbdc7","347bd795ab6024c13cfb2dacd82341b1788840c5","9271c3265160ab387ee1b785e7f0575084607df9","964105343f08d1ca48f7b76bd7cb0cdcd24a4c8b","bbfe41796d0a539fa80489da1c65bb394cb5bb58","c3d018f16596a73dbd602fd16d7f8f99b44a710a","c4d5519127c5930e0f7053b8341ff3afa2ddcd9c","d73b91f82033fed0d6d61d2d3abf145565b017b9","3d3aa810f4f13158d101ed10ed02a7e7ff186346","2e3a44d4e91d94797a526410379e29a177127603","a304c8034f76bcda00e2c0c28ec6aada01806414","df6ade47d3bbab757e8fcf6b3f026b7d3d44ed01","f0425e2b8925f3f963eccfe680d8e6e02c28d7f0","31693c9b7960774808dc32ff6a825d264b2dd34f","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","8c28cbee2aa9d9dba2d797ff66a4ef4419156b5d","80409f2342be237a797ac94d5095efa57a55ec42","ad291bd5b21860267afd7c5a1fc6d44148de71cf","2eed542cfb60b30f4fe0dbfa54b573398ba6993e","d7b4a30c881f74acf8eae8cf4ccc79ef5d0437a3","389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","da3b009864e1f75e882f3713a50e0de7bd977aa9","b2edf6e752a7c03fc1f32d90ea815697731642f2","416bdcb7d9fd89cefbd21104b79fbbc3b2a3c952","6e5026789b675868e14458a152834103737342b1","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","85040ca11dc73b2e50298b806c3ab448fce2e240","9e1512abe3bcb2e809b202ee534c6c86d80b9a93","c3bed1eb3ea064ce7b86c13dca3da9693aa0df09","db0806b45f61283547d1be7cf73fb4cbba764e2d","1d9620cd0a4f6d2d6b281616ba284f7f20995346","8d86b24e8fd2151153cff5fc0c2629e115d0827c","cff6223287063a1e6e117d3017e19ed18eb404c2","85859541f542a9526e3b4579683f4090388be102","fee78ff685c88c2211e19e82b5f7c124f7bc959d","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","294eb8df4c7a823a53ee958993c2d4f212641286","609cd0bc2351ddb76777332c95db3ef8a2b04f3a","827670fe8913af39c760bd9db97d997a2421b100","adbe47497d0497dd17c32ae0a02b58b56bc01758","53919d771d66d723a5eeacf39a655206ab92d86a","4590638a9e1bda868a5e90b09723ee9a4413cd31","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","01862860d6509d1de143fc0b82a460af97a035ab","dd53fbeb0d4943d4a7a72bedc20d2494dc67fafc","453dd174d548599f058efface4502458d8f8c977","fe4ae2bd0cf62ece4b265e4d09fea56c3c6b3aa5","eb6fe72a49d384ccddce7a3aa992573975981fe7","cf9f2a48528e50a5625eb8b8200d86a93e098b7a","230e42b7c7cb06e765ea3d8093b06b89fa1af6df","b23d41a477872dfa02d54e86d50b64a00c9969fd","bf1d0f059695e2f81df488f9e85844cca44590b6","d4aecdf02cb2112ced49e8d32ee507cde3636021","64921b0721e6f8bf82174d8df17c6db1bb7cd7fb","9fa9efe6479eb0fa6ccac1e772af9c797bc19f5b","7e0be2938e25d52eeb47c43584e1fecfcc0efe51","4001e6bfd58d23d0311c23db59bdfa2ce5ca05d2","1f0fdc714e51ada17239a001998d45e9fd3e4f46","cd61873f989916adf4017dc1e28f9c3107264784","fdf08ada775a8d3346d85fe9efc891b8e0cdf643","e2b05f861b12a32c0c27f82242c5c45f5e48026d","70ed39dcc39d95002b565bedd06c967f6d1b30a9","e74d3b4372a3033c2411f4ecf47012632a74b9d1","4eb3b8dfbd20430a36b0dc872fd8455d4c16f091","fefb31334eafeb347441412de022aae02bc7e373","3b762329e20d8ba55b484dcbe30985548ccb5bdf","ae5279bb27111a348c59a80d3da8dc1138363973","17377fa1f57f01817679851cc8a1f613a00b3b99",null,"94d29faa7196dcf92ab6189a8f583480fa30c3be",null,null,null,"ff7096ee70941afcad1cbd0dfc4f7e8efa4c3847","b4229024752e2bcfde34e98c96fea7b28dcc877c",null,null,"cccd81a7ef040f69f8d7520a92cab9a2a6d10d9d","fa92432314cd0fbb3707e0ebf24d820176df3510"],"referencesCount":83,"citationsCount":69,"abstract":"Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC‐AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water‐balance‐related parameters. Temperature‐dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long‐term investments are required."},{"id":"a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","numberInSourceReferences":46,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.1200807","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"The 2010 Amazon Drought","authors":[{"id":"3890299","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S."},{"id":"7322794","LN":"Brando","FN":"P."},{"id":"31946163","LN":"Phillips","FN":"O."},{"id":"35353707","LN":"Heijden","FN":"G. V. D. van der"},{"id":"4820713","LN":"Nepstad","FN":"D."}],"year":2011,"date":"2011-02-04","journal":"Science","volume":"331","firstPage":"554","lastPage":"554","references":["8c4d03a6bc3f7c1843c47abf0c25e9e5a33836ca","8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","9f11cab6e9798824c713fb4433809d8ea7597edf","987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","a3c78c411f7b7c4411a6b402b98f3f5c43745357",null,null],"referencesCount":9,"citationsCount":981,"abstract":"Amazonia experienced lower rainfall and higher calculated carbon emissions from tree deaths than in the 2005 drought. In 2010, dry-season rainfall was low across Amazonia, with apparent similarities to the major 2005 drought. We analyzed a decade of satellite-derived rainfall data to compare both events. Standardized anomalies of dry-season rainfall showed that 57% of Amazonia had low rainfall in 2010 as compared with 37% in 2005 (≤–1 standard deviation from long-term mean). By using relationships between drying and forest biomass responses measured for 2005, we predict the impact of the 2010 drought as 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon [95% confidence intervals (CIs) are 1.2 and 3.4], largely longer-term committed emissions from drought-induced tree deaths, compared with 1.6 ×1015 grams of carbon (CIs 0.8 and 2.6) for the 2005 event.","tldr":"A decade of satellite-derived rainfall data is analyzed to compare both the 2010 and 2005 drought in Amazonia and predict the impact of the 2010 drought as 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon, largely longer-term committed emissions from drought-induced tree deaths."},{"id":"9758a5cb826ed7199ee8822f08108fd6bbf7a106","numberInSourceReferences":28,"doi":"10.1038/NCLIMATE1143","type":["Review"],"title":"Early warning of climate tipping points","authors":[{"id":"1789900","LN":"Lenton","FN":"T."}],"year":2011,"date":"2011-07-01","journal":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"1","firstPage":"201","lastPage":"209","references":["4550ec4ae20cb7bd3bf3b647ac65a93da033d465","6a54c0791e97836fb98a8abffda4974af5a66229","8d826f5145a86be76861aefd36114598c023e20c","ed01afa3bb9ae5b24dadca49bc6878707231a8a2","c61db0f345460036c0ac8482cf006d20f808302d","dce4691783cbf0859c0cf908d9a3eee863ac69ad","314938da2de86a7d561bff418c9988e1d1065134","8020fefd752e8d51f5c7ab570693a2aabe05e5a9","6ef5f14bee23e150535bbc780b5ad0066ad7021d","ea0f518e9e6873d1fd2c9342baf8720147e3b5c3","c5925f0d115c94963d2fa38177f1558067264196","c6fb49b279bc022f34fb10994b23e667569e9780","467f417293298a45126f4df8aa98e0a72821dcb6","32d0e4c5c657e97815babb1801c2ebff3f5c4b68","a30e5ae03a1600260274d1b9b7eb3e2449b8fdf6","4c081113ddadbb316dfe654cfc0a330d25ff0722","c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","4dfe2db0a24fd7d9ebb59da4200248015dde6118","be3eda717b99731f93de80d75031f38e40f84cee","67abed497e78161d0cc3080650c2ffa2f2cd7b25","e52ec6bb551a95d2560dc011b2a3a22dd6d1803f","98482a00da32672f7b21206336df41324d3a1e6f","27877e99704cd5fc26b5b2bc6f9533c58cbac230","7bc019d3bf9b9ecc293c6e97b1b76055ced6692d","6f321d5ceecc733d061e4d35517f374bce6d055d","6e93fbb3d843fafca46c527eb78f3b226e306c12","7cbba074ef4090e8e3c2c09b3c65751ea4f4ab69","eeea9c95333f27a515d903eebf664ed073c2bd48","4e16328e599e9d3169f40b6dbfbd039b4ca673a2","6d823e6faf0b1c46ee5b597afc5da9572c0c0350","59a435f5e122fd959b0d97b3452465983ebf9cc9","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","52ea1dbbee7245873c95d0855b1ad0d3b0c7d70e","8f8d2d73883cac979bb9b9c1809e7ccde8851ecf","2d7745b2af0686586b3c3593e5344de60b5ce298","43cb69c03b940a603f82e6db72fb5eefaea863de","389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","83a1d6d6e5d8478337578fd83bd70227487c5e60","e57de80435e4788e390c23b42fe106a8eaf7e273","89c583a90b73571c7b3bae62e7547326faddf050","c2a8c3de259cc8b1b7aeda2631032424f9d11020","b6d8c44ecc88749cb407be51fe5ea6e5e867938c","59a0dd6f40fbcbf012f236fe51edc6d7f13c5fb9","b8a02f7940ccf9fcd337300cd8aefc4685cf7a43","c6544f260424c24d991c557a1ed8c426c57f5834","c9f9b63b9a213f516fa0330d1afe7c046b36037b","66ece56fad0abf74bc3d4299caff0399fc6ee926","1d4c18e039312368a7cf2a4861292c7f6e515989","b876ac7ce144c170afc5e60636eaf2aff4fb8a6a","e28055fa32c854d1eb89190a91b31cf721129095","4babd12194393fd74af2f8007dbc74e53c996fb2","ad24decfa4dda9fe94dbaa6ebd77f08b699ddc77","54bd43dbedb83689950fc9d640d803a6353b3400","6ec829d3345f11f96ed1bab636ca0beb92652813","d37be508b1b8576e97ea1a51ecba0a9dbc5bbee5","70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","8c2257a33be30bdc440318b1ef142ef9b5555560","7ba6a893226810aefa58479494938b2f18333504","201eed96b494d969b6b18c258b7edbe0e8693f96","e8605ad649b7f7d45a7fb8c678f019ccff206a55","5708577dce9595874cad66254277596e3dc6f710","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","106b053655aadc3e0beeaf21619956b192cd23bc","bbb6bac21661560748b88700e714342212ab174b","5ae178876f6ef4cb6baa5ab76d22d8e3f5c6a96b","38567041cf6e042718b528f854bff35589c439b1","e3711b7734eb8371510f81e4cfa696cc714f3324","bf4954e8d20db02b4d5deea875b888f0c64f0b37","cfbb2b4d2da12e1fe93bd2e7d1d3b5f22acc884b","53564c45fe0af4889c92f05b04626f7ac739a97a","8004847c2995e26d04229a40d4c18c92647bb74b","8f44d70d03f575e70f519ab5e60e5433129de9ed","9bf4d6c33906d1edb22ee87a4511ddef8e64e508",null,"b99a1aafa338ccec7e4d91d8861eb41db6928da0","6cdbe2f3f8e19b9b4fc5e3b623420d25df9496c0",null,null,"0fd0794e2ae77a48bd41d74cd376b33af18f06d6",null,"9bd08507f76b4a7194cf6b2ae52f28056a10122b","7b11e8135584aeb40c5af839b9142280f117cc15","709745d55a331e1797d566712f0788d10606ab06","2df53c97b0d7f3bebf5e9091d784ea99206c5ac5","a3461eaf51016f9d6e85ea47173b27e019e801c4","fc84f164036528a29b4d7c296471453d52352710","acbcc17a4426155daad1ec90b555a56e119cf99a"],"referencesCount":87,"citationsCount":700,"abstract":null},{"id":"04f4c68fa7bc5c9ea550076bb911b68b052d28a7","numberInSourceReferences":55,"doi":"10.1890/11-0889.1","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down.","authors":[{"id":"49546110","LN":"Dakos","FN":"V."},{"id":"7606675","LN":"Nes","FN":"E. V. van"},{"id":"102470532","LN":"D’Odorico","FN":"P."},{"id":"145644167","LN":"Scheffer","FN":"M."}],"year":2012,"date":"2012-02-01","journal":"Ecology","volume":"93 2","firstPage":"264","lastPage":"71","references":["3ee317c7b978ee660f46cfd02dc1db0fa84aebb6","697b3c5a9a2e157e3fa325c040ebd16680e0ea00","3816cebc55f1b1a97f665adb24ed46fea48c87c9","7047c84863484900ff9925b7dbecd24d3aeadd87","5f27d3a3d25d559f2171b63c22735f5ed4225eef","544d4a6044b3edf6fbcffb92835ac34f86c30fd0","dce4691783cbf0859c0cf908d9a3eee863ac69ad","37e82d892fb3231508d1f16512cd484cd2e8490e","314938da2de86a7d561bff418c9988e1d1065134","ea0f518e9e6873d1fd2c9342baf8720147e3b5c3","d62573ef0e19a75e33ce4af9ee23e58585ffe695","4c081113ddadbb316dfe654cfc0a330d25ff0722","c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","7cbba074ef4090e8e3c2c09b3c65751ea4f4ab69","8e770b59b909c5f1bd2e027a8a54c4baaee68af5","4e16328e599e9d3169f40b6dbfbd039b4ca673a2","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","8f8d2d73883cac979bb9b9c1809e7ccde8851ecf","4638f8624e610e5a5b3be998825e2d7b803a1c85","c2a8c3de259cc8b1b7aeda2631032424f9d11020","3c4e52928803a9250438af406389979eb76d530e","1a415b683036f6515c80cad7cf32386309cb6b7d","66ece56fad0abf74bc3d4299caff0399fc6ee926","70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","faa8d78e3cbb1f1e814a2808c56f8d08f0a06c74","9bf9b9736af2bca8e7088163a4a6c14824853c7b","92cff122f0b68a4b32eff36cf796b57f09099393","471b26c30d5e0abbb40e4db838cde8f1ac5e2591","776d04996fb51098a8c0bf615ffdbc5ddbde7ee6","53564c45fe0af4889c92f05b04626f7ac739a97a","22bf6bccf7da09e60943040beebcdb2f2a0ff840","a8b85ec27eec724e4a5cb7dfd9f9340bf364d678","7e9e55af6ba39ce543f4d81ae923ce6f81f39c8c"],"referencesCount":34,"citationsCount":273,"abstract":"Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.","tldr":"The robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions is explored and it is shown both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition."},{"id":"4193801389ca6257f44f0d7d8899bb4651375ede","numberInSourceReferences":27,"doi":"10.1007/S12080-013-0191-7","type":null,"title":"Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback","authors":[{"id":"3460476","LN":"Boulton","FN":"C."},{"id":"39592390","LN":"Good","FN":"P."},{"id":"1789900","LN":"Lenton","FN":"T."}],"year":2013,"date":"2013-05-29","journal":"Theoretical Ecology","volume":"6","firstPage":"373","lastPage":"384","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":0,"abstract":null},{"id":"963c95a977e4ce253791a7683ee19d91514a2002","numberInSourceReferences":18,"doi":"10.1038/NGEO1741","type":null,"title":"Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change","authors":[{"id":"2804586","LN":"Huntingford","FN":"C."},{"id":"50088996","LN":"Zelazowski","FN":"P."},{"id":"34946876","LN":"Galbraith","FN":"D."},{"id":"145220901","LN":"Mercado","FN":"L."},{"id":"3728155","LN":"Sitch","FN":"S."},{"id":"49353300","LN":"Fisher","FN":"R."},{"id":"34595232","LN":"Lomas","FN":"M."},{"id":"40104230","LN":"Walker","FN":"A."},{"id":"39448670","LN":"Jones","FN":"C."},{"id":"102586118","LN":"Booth","FN":"B."},{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"29747270","LN":"Hemming","FN":"D."},{"id":"103757033","LN":"Kay","FN":"G."},{"id":"39592390","LN":"Good","FN":"P."},{"id":"3890299","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S."},{"id":"31946163","LN":"Phillips","FN":"O."},{"id":"5886162","LN":"Atkin","FN":"O."},{"id":"145903306","LN":"Lloyd","FN":"J."},{"id":"49211532","LN":"Gloor","FN":"E."},{"id":"1422537442","LN":"Zaragoza‐Castells","FN":"J."},{"id":"144938923","LN":"Meir","FN":"P."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."},{"id":"29845971","LN":"Harris","FN":"P."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."},{"id":"2473622","LN":"Marengo","FN":"J."},{"id":"48372668","LN":"Cox","FN":"P."}],"year":2013,"date":"2013-04-01","journal":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"6","firstPage":"268","lastPage":"273","references":["0ebdee62cdaf146396c46656e05df271d6c272f7","d5ceb141c709ab0d6d74e41fe93aa06099bbd9fe","9b260352733dde93f19d4f3eecce6196fca3c5e7","24b6c2ecfbed9055511db299ed5bcc68df918413","69ebbd1299ac9b1db121b45dac14b943cdaa2fe7","7b239ce16ede66f7f5993af09ffca919a96415a5","4a8cb0280f57c6128c25e1ce494b512b42c211a0","d3d052bd2d77698c8764e5ece047c1595b1a53fd","984e7af1bdd7e28a6456fdd5ad9072e22fb92017","8c4d03a6bc3f7c1843c47abf0c25e9e5a33836ca","3fca3988703b2c04935d806dd9ae4467c1bd39f9","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","7e38cbb3c2c0907ab8b9e20d52799581c901bd57","af93f746f6bd78e86672545028e6aadef0e16a18","be3eda717b99731f93de80d75031f38e40f84cee","c4d06a555d212774be44a8fe98abe4276bbc8a3d","8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","f8a4a382ccb3c5c00abfe6b24b0e8cb54c4dc76d","df6ade47d3bbab757e8fcf6b3f026b7d3d44ed01","1563068db0707d4cedcc14b4de057ab117fbed50","987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","85859541f542a9526e3b4579683f4090388be102","d2c771e9b38130bc1105ef3ce968c19eb73af261","a5853a407de5041261bb2ff9370df88565016d99","ca22f89d1d2bd4d6231f1721dc5429cf2ff8ca72","ac1ca3abb614d8d060e9332d92b72cbf520706df","7082b370468ed6d1122a5aabe2a0f37982213a73","050be0e54d63ac61469dc7e8e7e0b2e3a638ad12","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","7275808ac26841d58517fd99f339d63efa8991d9","ef798adc0c90ce0bf7ae5e94aca5238d5960b79b"],"referencesCount":31,"citationsCount":405,"abstract":null},{"id":"467f0fdc420f5cd8996c0b2b1eb33a3dcda93c5e","numberInSourceReferences":54,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.1244693","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change","authors":[{"id":"2186384","LN":"Hansen","FN":"M."},{"id":"49087598","LN":"Potapov","FN":"P."},{"id":"2152813861","LN":"Moore","FN":"R."},{"id":"9253651","LN":"Hancher","FN":"Matt"},{"id":"1912875","LN":"Turubanova","FN":"S."},{"id":"4930609","LN":"Tyukavina","FN":"A."},{"id":"2532288","LN":"Thau","FN":"D."},{"id":"118947871","LN":"Stehman","FN":"S."},{"id":"1871755","LN":"Goetz","FN":"S."},{"id":"3182544","LN":"Loveland","FN":"T."},{"id":"37256457","LN":"Kommareddy","FN":"A."},{"id":"143643938","LN":"Egorov","FN":"A."},{"id":"31977715","LN":"Chini","FN":"L."},{"id":"34905497","LN":"Justice","FN":"C."},{"id":"145181457","LN":"Townshend","FN":"J."}],"year":2013,"date":"2013-11-15","journal":"Science","volume":"342","firstPage":"850","lastPage":"853","references":["76f8bf755abafbae81588f40372e67bd7487e122","77284ea470c9219ad16273dd384a224a534b0a11","e931e3f1a5cf05ceeb0e32f44ccd0c488689f80f","8b2df498c994fa34691f45e42dd8faa2b44ed1ba","04c3ca897f3806ebbb9b3182e93ca6db169b5cfe","29b65b3e50d48961ccf5e4fbc833ba711cd36ec6","bdcb4c342db8f329483c5cb2dbbdebf549be0f80","acaf39ae2a9a32c3e771824f360540d33387fc45","f26fe7b69c9787f4e741f1788f719742fe645c39","283bf0d035420ec651ab4934f349b3d5e8a4b871","6effe4c910974f5245344b7685ffc8c563ca0dc4","c74d586aa8c4a299dee74f2818568e721033ce42","e9873ea5e3e74fa90390bbb29da9abc8023c6eac","3b6dd340fb5442e0c31d73f40e241fdd73d42330","235c8ca197c08221e22a762abd2a10a8af97bb37","8453dc1205b6d40dc9a70c51bfbb3ff590646d95","d38a4ebc478672cf60a238b34fc9a75cc7972034","7c11aba1413e988fb0905536b2edf0d5e42b6480","ce061d787499cacc5d30c0acaefd8ab417e3c5c6","2d7745b2af0686586b3c3593e5344de60b5ce298","274f4b0bd389240ce9b729cadd21a10e9d672a32","b821f22dad1d754bef1179c9d2c546c4bb182b95","248a2a41d8e0bdb93036bc780049cbc292059356","e7cbc158fb3e592d1821d8d351a55bc3da342404","9c7623d015cb47012792dce79c3ceaa1fd78da23","d13af905a1eb321a6de9255433c66b0094dd28bc","f26096f23a42d977be385f876c4ec4ecd079925e","50507705b84e262d953ee7131e81ced5042e1af9","41eb932a84cf04a93c498539ad03d6f9dff11eed","4d26fcdc12504863140e64c149e3b9caa61cd303","5f1570e200b42e4cb1b9693fb9ada3aca1b6bf30","b23546fc4728394e8614e616321fd8d22a0abb4c","9d094fd4cf1569f18b25b59bc0e697cc67ab0fee","df5a9aeb6ad2ebda81afc7e0377bcd770a3c19f9","e935e8a022095f964d9e063a90b6da40372c836d",null,"f70785995b348fce5eed4686eb1407c75d455000","3203e7d2f0589a3cc934b50a218ebf888d5206c9",null,"b95fda406779387c5342fd09efebc5d334584983"],"referencesCount":40,"citationsCount":8687,"abstract":"Forests in Flux Forests worldwide are in a state of flux, with accelerating losses in some regions and gains in others. Hansen et al. (p. 850) examined global Landsat data at a 30-meter spatial resolution to characterize forest extent, loss, and gain from 2000 to 2012. Globally, 2.3 million square kilometers of forest were lost during the 12-year study period and 0.8 million square kilometers of new forest were gained. The tropics exhibited both the greatest losses and the greatest gains (through regrowth and plantation), with losses outstripping gains. Landsat data reveals details of forest losses and gains across the globe on an annual basis from 2000 to 2012. Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.","tldr":"Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally, and boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms."},{"id":"5595d6e87417ba69831cd6da96e063b0a7ea373b","numberInSourceReferences":42,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.1302584110","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection","authors":[{"id":"144348225","LN":"Fu","FN":"R."},{"id":"46579964","LN":"Yin","FN":"L."},{"id":"2108769467","LN":"Li","FN":"Wenhong"},{"id":"32966428","LN":"Arias","FN":"P."},{"id":"7562455","LN":"Dickinson","FN":"R."},{"id":"2109138314","LN":"Huang","FN":"Lei"},{"id":"153395601","LN":"Chakraborty","FN":"S."},{"id":"36815464","LN":"Fernandes","FN":"K."},{"id":"6822106","LN":"Liebmann","FN":"B."},{"id":"49353300","LN":"Fisher","FN":"R."},{"id":"7543846","LN":"Myneni","FN":"R."}],"year":2013,"date":"2013-10-21","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","volume":"110","firstPage":"18110","lastPage":"18115","references":["bab6bc5b33dbbdd580f67e679683b0d328ec280b","426d997cfac9ea3959ab27e366d769eca901606a","c331d747d84ce490920400a352fa3eeecafc4a7f","48e20beab31430668cc14bceff2fb726d72ce2b8","22dd5901a668e7160d3a03c76e3d39dd430821de","7fa10285fd3532aea2e64d0d6de06608266b4366","c1f4d0ada1bc02630bf78d4808a9d867c98af370","878c531fc7889fb5b6b29733f8b74d186899cfc3","97e67208b41ec60e4f426ba8b599f16610ee058e","65a3f5f3f06eced6d8dae4dbc8d0a4dcea6548b5","acc59a30d83ff1a9b64e0ab38918baf635b1891d","ccb1091e8be50a72a2bab3076fdd3a6c6e2179c8","50963d76d9ba8b0e39cbe5616234a1cc87cae52e","201b76815c9efc63b534b3c20c23423b72b6ec4f","a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","06393e8e0d910d8109e56f9310438c63f4625694","7ec3510a523be21fe3d3f66306572c2202eeb76d","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","ad12c3c6a7c6057b24cd1145390d91678436ae22","8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","b10de42e76cf9e5c4fac71e94b87dd19d859c457","3cedb68c3a4c749a76f5cb982a669c716030eadb","2841e22aec66c5f665f4b4b8c69a1e7149a2bfa7","ce3716fc0361f5d4f9b9bdbfd801235d79e570b0","33c6c516c0a1b5bbc2b3b717560b382c4e4a3175","17d23b26fc56836ad292a208fd2a55c9d0f68d8b","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","dce2d1cd3316ba2288aacf11c0bf12bfdba25dc9","fc5430e69fde0676363051a50a550c212f4a7dbb","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","609cd0bc2351ddb76777332c95db3ef8a2b04f3a","4ad76e9e4d3e2e0985b8b26e1f5606f262ca103c","086b6041fdf108ddad98d3750930bf661ff7aa5a","8884e8ebcbca04d1950cd1cb25d50ad9304a5857","1d245bc06645e93b7209983bb5afea2cf2c22378","0451af3e636bf74400f8f394fc3ec9d3e69bb0df","3d0414dbe59319fde2f57563b462762d6434f5d1","a5a57a5760aea5ff03ba578e1f93b492ebedc0f6","2b0dd59254ed9d1255f817e427ede2c9f53e5e5f","f3666d7b160eca8cca099fa59fcfd902cba7a860","6dfcb2e9c8a609fb7edadedc63e950ce503c7bf3","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","46aca6dc34009401cc3afe723bed6d8ecea77274","6a15e58668576cd7e26d689bb682f7bb6c801797","f8a6c5720f38250695cebbca608c859bd64e9798","2fbcdd66c7ddcc5ca9ee04aeead8efe98eb3ad0e","3c8d659422dd8c8a8101556887b603ebc13746fe","d1700f180eeddb9bb47cba2c93fb641719951d12",null,"4097d1d38c786f89b895eb17daaf2de1d1a79b14","a366037a8f96449063cbd969e88295c78d539e25","afc68fc8effbffb30de0b6a4c29d2c802900e07b","67ea44e559e8e80886defb873fdab9b4f609b657","268fa058ba37fbb8de27d176d82c167d87855331",null,"73dba3954ee56d41fa19c112d8ca7b404a5b764f",null],"referencesCount":57,"citationsCount":411,"abstract":"Significance Whether the dry-season length will increase is a central question in determining the fate of the rainforests over Amazonia and the future global atmospheric CO2 concentration. We show observationally that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979. We do not know what has caused this change, although it resembles the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report seem to substantially underestimate the variability of the dry-season length. Such a bias implies that the future change of the dry-season length, and hence the risk of rainforest die-back, may be underestimated by the projections of these models. We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June–August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September–November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.","tldr":"It is observed that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season."},{"id":"922cd02a5e4f1298384cb5b9f6d13df5daf64b70","numberInSourceReferences":13,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.1305499111","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions","authors":[{"id":"7322794","LN":"Brando","FN":"P."},{"id":"4080363","LN":"Balch","FN":"J."},{"id":"4820713","LN":"Nepstad","FN":"D."},{"id":"3420619","LN":"Morton","FN":"D."},{"id":"3327762","LN":"Putz","FN":"F."},{"id":"3476221","LN":"Coe","FN":"M."},{"id":"47081671","LN":"Silvério","FN":"D."},{"id":"32817696","LN":"Macedo","FN":"M."},{"id":"35389495","LN":"Davidson","FN":"E."},{"id":"49700525","LN":"Nóbrega","FN":"C."},{"id":"2198420","LN":"Alencar","FN":"A."},{"id":"1398435774","LN":"Soares-Filho","FN":"B."}],"year":2014,"date":"2014-04-14","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","volume":"111","firstPage":"6347","lastPage":"6352","references":["33eccbbc91b0250cbdee3a1a1968a664f3f3d501","53b4f7148231d42f5d7981a6d38c4906dbc1a762","c5d1cae1051791b37d57974825c341269571ce99","6c03e2458f3b3df096be3c5e02ee3738cff0a48a","b40d16532ee3bf9af7b1fdc0a71ceef9d1f4a68e","963c95a977e4ce253791a7683ee19d91514a2002","7294b60bc88a5f9466954c1e6e1814d4126f2941","3a8bc533dab2c1f3ea0a9e82741731e6eacd0c00","52061e926e029749735d473170cbc68662fc230f","9116bf686fc01f5d84e5c11149f185921c44ef2a","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","1dc886ac2f208422112e7670647c99b5e22966ed","697b3c5a9a2e157e3fa325c040ebd16680e0ea00","878c531fc7889fb5b6b29733f8b74d186899cfc3","4ebfd135a10d3b0ddd32326964725f5283c65a96","c0b9411d70eeb4c0b08dc86695a54b5e69793be3","a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","67730bbb104cb56794e8d553355ea0139fe63ac6","9b9bc11496aacbb487d3e4a1de41cd97e40ce8b4","8c4d03a6bc3f7c1843c47abf0c25e9e5a33836ca","dc4d3fe84a37f1676508a2e4a6d141be3c3fd5f8","ceb32e4f47d1069857f6315d1fb42518d9cbaf42","55476098b14184ca188a8fa59119904d67cff209","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","d7b4a30c881f74acf8eae8cf4ccc79ef5d0437a3","11b818942de2195d08c429a281f882a15e80db49","2b783dbd5e66f6b5b49e03885202d78a8e26bd40","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","49f21e7768ca6a31c6f29feac8c053562c02e5e0","b5bb50e56ddfc66f746a34a749a92a489d43d975","c409ab496b3a306a9e14c730c898d63a7ac171f2","74ec15f91fc2877baa5d488a86e90889389ab6c1","dbb4a92166ef11e25f929377d167f4f021040efd","f9fb9378cde985eb2b1236bfe26b1ffc3f760f3a","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","4a31feb8468936a9bb3246196bcff5a3bc2d0c99","e6bd9186e04dd9428235a08a497417c4731b2735","57f990c3ba70ab8fbb913a99a3f8d5b5460f62a6","1477343b06ca6f6583424b7e5fe0f252a91fcfce","91ead8e10e659cee272cb55b0f5cdd728149920d","6d623b96717cf9897e58f28601edab3deaa2b081","9c3737fabb853bb4b6452c34a5e032c28e18550e"],"referencesCount":43,"citationsCount":609,"abstract":"Significance Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional forest fires that burned 5–12% of southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest “dieback” in the near-term. To secure the integrity of seasonally dry Amazon forests, efforts to end deforestation must be accompanied by initiatives that reduce the accidental spread of land management fires into neighboring forest reserves and effectively suppress forest fires when they start. Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.","tldr":"The results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests."},{"id":"6c69a425959a4e98df944c10300258f18119c3b7","numberInSourceReferences":56,"doi":"10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1284","type":null,"title":"LBA-ECO LC-07 Wetland Extent, Vegetation, and Inundation: Lowland Amazon Basin","authors":[{"id":"32103834","LN":"Hess","FN":"L."},{"id":"70428400","LN":"Melack","FN":"J."},{"id":"40090862","LN":"Affonso","FN":"Adriana G."},{"id":"21462127","LN":"Barbosa","FN":"C."},{"id":"1436373588","LN":"Gastil-Buhl","FN":"M."},{"id":"33312009","LN":"Novo","FN":"E."}],"year":2015,"date":"2015-09-15","journal":"","volume":"","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":28,"abstract":null},{"id":"9e2b5146d43268cde0a223c4ebafead8b63d7528","numberInSourceReferences":52,"doi":"10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1","type":null,"title":"Early-Warning Signals for the Onsets of Greenland Interstadials and the Younger Dryas–Preboreal Transition","authors":[{"id":"41032146","LN":"Rypdal","FN":"M."}],"year":2015,"date":"2015-12-23","journal":"Journal of Climate","volume":"29","firstPage":"4047","lastPage":"4056","references":["5e08d5ef785ee6b6b8ed1784dde5c99323336c85","39f5ee58f4364c092bbc3064c1683901faa62dc0","83d404c8b508303b47aad52c158a00d988f5c42b","809c11a0d0eed7b8d4fb97418b8895bb1eb308d3","fc13db298f988ceceeb56738e821c003e72bbef1","b090dd10b0f218261172d7d0f6c1492e696e0016","4550ec4ae20cb7bd3bf3b647ac65a93da033d465","71e5bf5ae110faef15ff52b9e5a669d8ad344c9a","df7f417194f887f535752e1b5c2cb469eb1e0c89","6ef5f14bee23e150535bbc780b5ad0066ad7021d","d5a50c2c4a6345ba6b5a326303e01214f314d7fd","ca3d4de2462fd81e15e2e23ce8bf6e13ef8dc8fc","4c081113ddadbb316dfe654cfc0a330d25ff0722","244084b5eae9de5e31e30789647269ace4e13f71","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","cf7776ef39cffa0632b45e2872591e314a64243f","711e1bdc5237dd66dff531f7a006bf01d5171036","a7d1407f6262ebb6bd5a45f9e9aca38e6045ecd6","122da8d29ce3b7be8bd275ce07f76ae0f5881310","dea7e3cef4e4b661719f6d3ca277712c05693867","1eee0716723024ef7e99b702f1bb2dc1901a4e16","d93b7d89c8970fe6ab94bc391559ded2d559d3f5","f8de1da740a2e4edca5d7aa7d4f3876c21b55edb","4d8302b56f7839302750fb1dc81f730872a2790f","b04913d88286ed289b05129d98fa3930df2e88f5","e24d4555ac3743fa68b9032274778f10e3720bfa","2c455f0da2bd86a9b9ea432d1485049073d7c63d",null,"a0e55ee7863e47348a8cd9c9387fa6cb82d29478","e18a91369273412a56e27424da6f0547ea77c564","e5b99bfdc3d993767e39b4d60028dc4e358d1721",null],"referencesCount":32,"citationsCount":31,"abstract":"Source: Journal of Climate doi: 10.4236/am.2016.715143 \\n \\n© 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS."},{"id":"e43256238dbfcf1fe37aac918a6d2d033e22d380","numberInSourceReferences":5,"doi":"10.1038/NATURE14283","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink","authors":[{"id":"3944189","LN":"Brienen","FN":"R."},{"id":"2259344296","LN":"Phillips","FN":"Oliver L."},{"id":"4353231","LN":"Feldpausch","FN":"T."},{"id":"49211532","LN":"Gloor","FN":"E."},{"id":"2246600926","LN":"Baker","FN":"Timothy R."},{"id":"2274261878","LN":"Lloyd","FN":"Jonathan"},{"id":"1380697522","LN":"Lopez-Gonzalez","FN":"G."},{"id":"34717680","LN":"Mendoza","FN":"A."},{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"2237813042","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S. L."},{"id":"66433153","LN":"Martínez","FN":"R. 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Vásquez"},{"id":"5158049","LN":"Vilanova","FN":"E."},{"id":"4035786","LN":"Vos","FN":"V."}],"year":2016,"date":"2016-07-01","journal":"Global Biogeochemical Cycles","volume":"30","firstPage":"964","lastPage":"982","references":["f47e491fce9a8ff96f2d9cd44c08d55d3ba63b18","bb6ec10012f6a5d96f45e96ffdc36770afdc0117","aa1fe4623592dcaf4302246b139f40542c768357","b7e280712610b11f8828749f9ecaa87497ad3e0f","e43256238dbfcf1fe37aac918a6d2d033e22d380","04cfe49b3f0e3478e4ec824a89909775a03445e3","a6caecfcb07a6a94ec2e4498ca9ae572deaa00d1","969e1f7f5c475cfa5a82ff9cc929118ee9de96a6","7ed453e18d21e53b073c74672b9f06f0f1d2497d","3a7c099b77ae0b819fc6bb5cd2f3bee8b4c88886","e2b1b55bb7e397f12c473731ba41809f2ccfdf2f","5a0989900faadca824d6d18ecaf787f5319edc8b","98e0bf8c6876ed54a0026f1a8e483da16e762e10","5595d6e87417ba69831cd6da96e063b0a7ea373b","94fa8cf405d8e08cbf7927a9db01b2fdf8f52e78","426d997cfac9ea3959ab27e366d769eca901606a","455787573c09371e4c18bf86395e58d9f4e8c178","963c95a977e4ce253791a7683ee19d91514a2002","b3c469af686d9164e4b53060924ff4c643dcd8de","403b1e28f0f666d11fbb83d5af3b9fd4fa18394e","48e20beab31430668cc14bceff2fb726d72ce2b8","cb45eb725eee0e9dfd7749c24641afda94289419","66bdddf5674b4f0b8ea3e0b78a06338fef29af8d","1786d7cd813b8e03c2914c502fa9692e0d5fa9ce","751d8871fbf3c9db426b36b8929a92c3112bc175","0ebdee62cdaf146396c46656e05df271d6c272f7","04e6acd6131f508a8c96dc7165f0065a7e9ac58a","22ab849aa44905e41fa82c55c3df2bdacc376977","c4cd8ef7f632f8dd53f8e9aeda44c58c7b035551","8a71f9cd81ad9d83039ff733a5a033e92b439f7a","ef1616eca0a8e160d46d5aa6103ec8746426a86e","9380945a74a8a078b016c5527bbe0fb963ada4fd","acc59a30d83ff1a9b64e0ab38918baf635b1891d","a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","eafe0033e96e07717dfd48a216d28d2d29b35048","a95103d5b997482b1dcf749995d8be986f27dde1","6ac5c35d9dc9a6ee19ddda9653ef8ae30e25a3e3","78aa59d74170e8693388fb664161c87c8679a044","3fca3988703b2c04935d806dd9ae4467c1bd39f9","c9fd82cdfcc9fc48e8a399e498206e038af868cf","101f004d6b79835434749cc548c2f11cc3c22c6c","93d7b18e9812a8665c92b7ca992737930cef367e","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","c632435ba6cb74b4398f5a375536fc8bfce70cdd","abfcd9139be4a4505902fb787adab7b686365c1f","2e15cfd46cbb47327d2099059de0f31cf59acd91","483ea920a4458d49f84acf113a576ad4b435b20e","0e3b6b76d672a242b5442dca0cab67d8308a1a4e","8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","02fb94f6eb96f3bca3cfd01e7aacd04781971fc9","a8d4e645455a0944323882ee1ad75899546bee35","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","4e62b880dc7907001181e050510dfed3b83f6a68","2eed542cfb60b30f4fe0dbfa54b573398ba6993e","87be4d31120aaeed69e8329fbed88594ef6c9a30","da3b009864e1f75e882f3713a50e0de7bd977aa9","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","f0274bb5ef344ae12d9d23fb90baf6810d64f313","0617f73b7f43a857f514b734a049512453a16568","b1bb849237edf695b4185a9bf9855fa1fe1306a5","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","96a630a6cd9049bd66593c88b8ceb52675192ef7","6f7c1306ab69379df6df8214bf5d140af053df7e","3ec481005e118dfdfbc6c0d5eff267eacf9e2c0a","e0e5f217b9f766ffffa08c64362618c4ff266b06","d9de24ff369e744b0489caad15ea609acf242119","4eb3b8dfbd20430a36b0dc872fd8455d4c16f091","2f547a8fed3462e0c4c4d1a1dd95308cbb100fc2","3228f35cbaaf19e781480587914bffd25eff8144","96338ac015f6ffcfc52c86455fe7f5eed1473d8a","659408b243cec55de8d0a3bc51b81173007aa89b",null,null,null,null,"b0ed311978fd24e3b56a821f9eabbc26789fb06a","6573668202ffe2289decf3a476605743e92ecb25",null,null,null,"7ff1bc3a7c34bbcbfcdbbbfb871be2cdf9da1bb9",null,"e131f64267c91824aaae241189d1bf3ebb05a13d",null,null,null],"referencesCount":86,"citationsCount":207,"abstract":"The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin‐wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin‐wide ground‐based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground‐based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: −0.43 Mg ha−1, confidence interval (CI): −1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long‐term biomass sink during the baseline pre‐2010 drought period (1998 to pre‐2010) of 1.33 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p < 0.01). The resulting net impact of the 2010 drought (i.e., reversal of the baseline net sink) was −1.95 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI:−2.77, −1.18; p < 0.001). This net biomass impact was driven by an increase in biomass mortality (1.45 Mg ha−1 yr−1 CI: 0.66, 2.25, p < 0.001) and a decline in biomass productivity (−0.50 Mg ha−1 yr−1, CI:−0.78, −0.31; p < 0.001). Surprisingly, the magnitude of the losses through tree mortality was unrelated to estimated local precipitation anomalies and was independent of estimated local pre‐2010 drought history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre‐2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin‐wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (−0.07 Pg C yr−1 CI:−0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land‐atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long‐term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event."},{"id":"68e014afbe6940b43981f8a572e3d995a4a95240","numberInSourceReferences":47,"doi":"10.1038/S41598-017-05373-2","type":null,"title":"Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST","authors":[{"id":"48724119","LN":"Erfanian","FN":"A."},{"id":"144149560","LN":"Wang","FN":"Guiling"},{"id":"2094367657","LN":"Fomenko","FN":"Lori"}],"year":2017,"date":"2017-07-19","journal":"Scientific Reports","volume":"7","references":[],"referencesCount":0,"citationsCount":0,"abstract":null},{"id":"d3d718f3f0e4e6d91b3b13524b3e90496e76f841","numberInSourceReferences":17,"doi":"10.1111/GCB.13733","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble","authors":[{"id":"3460476","LN":"Boulton","FN":"C."},{"id":"102586118","LN":"Booth","FN":"B."},{"id":"39592390","LN":"Good","FN":"P."}],"year":2017,"date":"2017-06-01","journal":"Global Change Biology","volume":"23","firstPage":"5032","lastPage":"5044","references":["e43256238dbfcf1fe37aac918a6d2d033e22d380","dc9130ff1174aa7e65738207a5c914d1134bc321","d92b1c238d95c10e64edec1271f9d0dec34f6d54","963c95a977e4ce253791a7683ee19d91514a2002","c331d747d84ce490920400a352fa3eeecafc4a7f","806436f2eafe8cdd0611f044f234e1323de32d70","cb323fef41ec0ddd2d3dd840ea0d738f9ba4717b","d5ceb141c709ab0d6d74e41fe93aa06099bbd9fe","697b3c5a9a2e157e3fa325c040ebd16680e0ea00","32ba576f5e4b180064fbe3b3b60f19f9e648f644","7df84105463e5281abde61dd261b9b719dfdc87b","9deb120ec5fac77500a8fa14994452a54fc0cefa","045555ec4342da07074949f540bc615cb8c453cf","3fca3988703b2c04935d806dd9ae4467c1bd39f9","8c4d03a6bc3f7c1843c47abf0c25e9e5a33836ca","6ac5c35d9dc9a6ee19ddda9653ef8ae30e25a3e3","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","4c081113ddadbb316dfe654cfc0a330d25ff0722","be3eda717b99731f93de80d75031f38e40f84cee","8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","df6ade47d3bbab757e8fcf6b3f026b7d3d44ed01","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","55c1671ac52af4c00f1aaa912777e5af0db10a3c","3f150810eff352fda0f59671bcc75b3f70db759c","4289108f3c3eea60c64b38d3ffaf3cf3ec5097a7","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","bfe43d4fe923c399fac374999d8883d43ee1f207","55404bc3b0bc58a6cb92914a1b79fbb4bcb57839","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","79f5347aee431eaf7c1ca95405950a2a4ef19a41","4d6b87bd0033d22b035cce759edbc7ff70c36057","85859541f542a9526e3b4579683f4090388be102","f991a2a0e09f442a2ad528bbcab8fc0992f7cf3b","f197f9cc819cad21910df3f60d05ce90c57356b6","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","df2a97e41bd5ac8682cc0480a7b7256b2f9c5f00","2b0dd59254ed9d1255f817e427ede2c9f53e5e5f","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","87181b6a1e291e487e6e5de9bb8b005d15bcecaa","2865cb823da209c4396a4db48e4c65ec4b2cded7"],"referencesCount":40,"citationsCount":24,"abstract":"The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as “dry‐season resilience” to predict the long‐term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid‐range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome.","tldr":"This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework and it is suggested that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100."},{"id":"12334afe89c06c07a1409d4442a1d51c26e10d93","numberInSourceReferences":8,"doi":"10.1038/SREP41489","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system","authors":[{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."},{"id":"3019359","LN":"Marwan","FN":"N."},{"id":"144567128","LN":"Barbosa","FN":"H."},{"id":"143842718","LN":"Kurths","FN":"J."}],"year":2017,"date":"2017-01-25","journal":"Scientific Reports","volume":"7","references":["64bc8bff8435ba1f23d340c25491bef364acd850","31c2cd31d32181c8972e536497c82bdc39e66ff9","e984bab85db8cafdc298370252dc4daa8f71f1fa","a761cae590065a9322c85e552efe3ebe882731ac","1b19fb3bc538ff8f5e407be09af7b06459aae5e3","45af7bd36b95c974562da896cd704e2e2b917e85","e82f26dcda7e737b0c4da541615e7dfc158d543f","a8efde89aa4a97ae951a797f55ae8483701d2f6f","c331d747d84ce490920400a352fa3eeecafc4a7f","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","201b76815c9efc63b534b3c20c23423b72b6ec4f","a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","2af68a82823c0523ae52b1943e75bd5b95d1ead3","7b98938971780de214ee8b48a629751bae076aa0","4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","c38261102326bace677760db08a86fa5a430f9e4","31693c9b7960774808dc32ff6a825d264b2dd34f","987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","cd208243adede122cc89357261d715fea17f607b","412a0bb5a3baa91b62053d82c562bc172df0439f","351625f66dfe426c0515d216d34da8fd9b7b2d09","354f931b92a51180bbeaf49f89d662ee7984ab50","2ad4125a68b7244277be6b85687f1a421908f40f","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","96a630a6cd9049bd66593c88b8ceb52675192ef7","6569487a629fd8a3ae7f145a7219dd997f105b92","bdc1b8a85dcb50ddf7333421f27455203703ba19","0707bb3c3139e9d3ddc1e9cb37aeb19436c76ed1","0ecd0480dd501d58ce24096735e0e53f7056ceb0","0d2e37b70ed6158a797fbd5bac2d8d4880654445","98f360039931313392890a96c616c1ff75b3ae43","26b854bb1e882df989244e34ac45cd239eb9ade9","6e604804edaccd7b7e6665f95490dc34ad058cd9","d0022a2fb41caa9b45bd87d95b8e34269de03c15","119653e133fdd0dde2b27aeb372fd076a3b7baea","b5f9947d51d35db12c54d9199867f760397d4455","56a283e05e80aac325b2cf78245147e68f6ed1e3","e1b4aab9a6dfebaba658642f527084e2d0f53dbb",null,null],"referencesCount":41,"citationsCount":186,"abstract":null,"tldr":"Impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation is investigated with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic."},{"id":"67ad40cb40d7784d5543bf6166b55ef2dfb37ea1","numberInSourceReferences":41,"doi":"10.1038/NCOMMS15519","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact","authors":[{"id":"32159428","LN":"Wuyts","FN":"Bert"},{"id":"2718658","LN":"Champneys","FN":"A."},{"id":"2257588572","LN":"House","FN":"Joanna I."}],"year":2017,"date":"2017-05-30","journal":"Nature Communications","volume":"8","references":["66c431c2dfe70556dc021cf0e1b8a62c2531922f","9bdf8afa76c1a7fbbc0fd58e7d6abcaa2817785e","2e7b175e98cf4e93b1e92005f2e0e69551cb73fa","e0c4851e9aec1ee92b4d64cc32ec1916f4b4d983","4cf386fb9d05abb6e2b26ec7df542f86aae27a55","f76079094119d06334a54aac40a3a38f10017b81","9165732e932bfb2702f7a0b163d5f9c1e74a9845","9ecbc7447ccc033e108638dd6da4fe1a6a226eb6","166474a80c0f37143f4b712c0bb6fc57434c7e13","ab7ff52e75748f2e43a48c48d6ac5dfbfd8cfcc4","5b27a48df25f24bf641947d6e4cb74eb989a91bd","99696f2830b7ef8e657b0bd6c775688d7581506a","922cd02a5e4f1298384cb5b9f6d13df5daf64b70","72f624fefec292a3cb7a0973325b706e56942ac9","3686fcf16a178404686428402fb7a2d34c2db23a","3b8ef3d2d45e7e926fb35dd4ac23a3883baf5b52","04359c2a99e7ba96ea5b2a54b508f1110fd72999","8c145259016de504934757482bce4480bf5c8784","7a168be196992a76461961fcdcc9c30b50f3a8ec","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","697b3c5a9a2e157e3fa325c040ebd16680e0ea00","878c531fc7889fb5b6b29733f8b74d186899cfc3","997a2b9ae45190ddf25ad239925829f70752ce52","9758a5cb826ed7199ee8822f08108fd6bbf7a106","88af2bd20b6c977589b3c7ecc522174b0ff3e018","bbcf21177073d08f1c6c7335b4aec1aa381dda33","0de477d496b226525e56d2e6591a7721697dc2a8","d72a53e1350c78dc6950e3fa50c5ced281a976a1","c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","12ffcf2f932d80993563a9ee47ce82738c201ca0","eb81cbe0773b2dc092e35b163e63309d5ba9f891","5aedfb9750fe93dd3b70b60beb2f3c25b4f71277","db1bd3595aa14e566388db80b2cf47e7447d34de","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","e7cbc158fb3e592d1821d8d351a55bc3da342404","53934358f5fff7dd1440bcfa97e79783a5b70316","6ba3fb26c35e0e003103ecfd0e01c8385614d4ca","dbb4a92166ef11e25f929377d167f4f021040efd","8c73f15481828fd0552ba4a3fc06ce893c3a0c79","80900fb85e2f29953b7d70fb59fa0e092cf41afe","faa8d78e3cbb1f1e814a2808c56f8d08f0a06c74","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","fbfb5fb4646201931a819cb96a7b7971a45de5ca","8d7373edc47650ee821bb95828409d25836201fb","4ffd7867723c4b8de7ca25bd06906e8142c87296","94e5cb39c64e253d1dc1b853286b04a8d1afc00d","a8b85ec27eec724e4a5cb7dfd9f9340bf364d678","4f63d575decbf0e877e47a52f4140aab02fb3ed7","4cfd9b2e9c7c01a407d186f3d9c87fd124cf5676","9489c271eaa958ee8526e57ef8ac6c955d8c0709","1fb63b6f2cc7a14a18b0f7a8afa057b49666650a",null,"f2b60a29bd7c7bd9374423c9573f28628187dcfe",null,null,"afef030037e621538ac53e18d23a1a4660df79d8",null,null,null,null],"referencesCount":60,"citationsCount":62,"abstract":null,"tldr":"A narrow range of bimodality remaining in the human-unaffected data indicates that there is still bistability, although on smaller scales than claimed previously."},{"id":"a4b6e12005d58e512712405b351ae128b5f9300f","numberInSourceReferences":11,"doi":"10.1126/SCIADV.AAT2340","type":["Editorial"],"title":"Amazon Tipping Point","authors":[{"id":"30184944","LN":"Lovejoy","FN":"T."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."}],"year":2018,"date":"2018-02-01","journal":"Science Advances","volume":"4","references":["b191f09d1a5747827b4bef90bc5a8d4eccb56fab","12d66990ecef7415cf34144822a5f76f27e6eb3d","d64ee710b9ff17bd59659eb1e1b39f8a568a1d4d","98839d85f8c63fd0801146464b4aad5bd47f6152","cd208243adede122cc89357261d715fea17f607b","ccb5d68fc4aef32b84fcaf409b0b672c46a2bd51",null],"referencesCount":7,"citationsCount":362,"abstract":"Thomas E. Lovejoy\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nCarlos Nobre\\n\\n\\n\\nIn the 1970s, Brazilian scientist Eneas Salati shattered the long held dogma that vegetation is simply the consequence of climate and has no influence on climate whatsoever ( 1 ). Using isotopic ratios of oxygen in rainwater samples collected from the Atlantic to the Peruvian border, he was able to demonstrate unequivocally that the Amazon generates approximately half of its own rainfall by recycling moisture 5 to 6 times as airmasses move from the Atlantic across the basin to the west.\\n\\nFrom the start, the demonstration of the hydrological cycle of the Amazon raised the question of how much deforestation would be required to cause the cycle to degrade to the point of being unable to support rain forest ecosystems.\\n\\nHigh levels of evaporation and transpiration that forests produce throughout the year contribute to a wetter atmospheric boundary layer than would be the case with …","tldr":"Using isotopic ratios of oxygen in rainwater samples collected from the Atlantic to the Peruvian border, Brazilian scientist Eneas Salati was able to demonstrate unequivocally that the Amazon generates approximately half of its own rainfall by recycling moisture 5 to 6 times as airmasses move across the basin to the west."},{"id":"c2dae083b5d082978b1994dc79c19d32a0b3274a","numberInSourceReferences":53,"doi":"10.1038/S41467-018-04881-7","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record","authors":[{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."}],"year":2018,"date":"2018-07-02","journal":"Nature Communications","volume":"9","references":["71c554ef591d095e4cdbf5cf2184a4af9a6a581d","445848f04d0554f90260e0ad773f1e7dd9cd5b8e","637fea7d7d269b91e3dc5e6c4c01f936f4e2b6aa","e84626031e0c3e42ea44fab8bc96cc6a48a90071","21a90973a461ed3abb64ae02cf0202009fa88ba4","d2fc4fc2495140bd1c4dfbbd4bd3b29464b43468","9e2b5146d43268cde0a223c4ebafead8b63d7528","63a77c21038b7488e096aef634a22722ed8451b1","a0b3325545a5ed97dc6661a9434a58342eaac888","afd5166152914eb804a0b579616616be7015bc49","6c86544c5fc2dc3836a4488aff82d62d4db05f30","00f4a3acc48a52f0618fd38ec85281c1ceb3d111","25a536717127c750e76415cd065ae67746179ba8","c722438db3bff6931b2788f44ff05bb3a7fb7ff4","df7f417194f887f535752e1b5c2cb469eb1e0c89","6ef5f14bee23e150535bbc780b5ad0066ad7021d","c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","2a138ce8fa871ecbedb6944f3b298ca07d5b10bc","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","cf7776ef39cffa0632b45e2872591e314a64243f","1882131929f17e62d118e57cada89d365d88da0c","711e1bdc5237dd66dff531f7a006bf01d5171036","a7d1407f6262ebb6bd5a45f9e9aca38e6045ecd6","2635b1232f0f6b9c728511fad372b955a8661e85","644617717edf9c92e0f4ab5f2cf60ddc95b5b314","f12af9536bbdffbf352e6d5e02da9ef43d04c14b","780cbde3d50bfc8dec6d2caa104d9d4a9d7733d7","bb9bc395b6bb8f0e037b8b9de5e407262bbdc6f4","edc418a294247ffe816b8d6c6ea8d18b79032545","9f57fbbc0f700897f8a15cfbca023c7d375fbd59","b24b6697fa0259d97fe01a98e4aa68b2f2c61f15","5b41264c35651d9bc4d543b69cc88985589458d8","7532749db54a76e69057c36a8b603f528b0fe408","287a5a52e587bf69bdc25ec1eb1b967b03cc91ad","15d4ede19c882bc2352a2be3207b0b9880f21ebd","324e58b59b4cac7228aa83b4ed954ddda655b547","f8de1da740a2e4edca5d7aa7d4f3876c21b55edb","2773152c739e973239dcb0d570dfb9c59f3b615f","a66bef959b11ace29bb171091bd25876e7ab828d","d8f10d3bc14eb556f7360eeea96e85ab6638fbb1","a7e133be33971546d0c436e8a6eff0077c266762","5c125d87c911aea1bc787a66cd973c857b28f6a9","4d79ccfcbc701686fd0d9986b2eca95aba188bfc","c7a20b2cc6cbbd5fd6f6d15cb57fd137459d1080",null],"referencesCount":45,"citationsCount":61,"abstract":null,"tldr":"Time series with 5-year resolution is obtained from the raw NGRIP record, and significant numbers of EWS in terms of variance and autocorrelation increases are revealed in the decadal-scale variability, confirming the above hypothesis."},{"id":"dcb70f058a5db720462641b5090235b66cbb18ae","numberInSourceReferences":50,"doi":"10.1111/GCB.14413","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change","authors":[{"id":"1401953045","LN":"Esquível-Muelbert","FN":"Adriane"},{"id":"40622085","LN":"Baker","FN":"T."},{"id":"6827806","LN":"Dexter","FN":"K."},{"id":"3890299","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S."},{"id":"3944189","LN":"Brienen","FN":"R."},{"id":"4353231","LN":"Feldpausch","FN":"T."},{"id":"145903306","LN":"Lloyd","FN":"J."},{"id":"1403698067","LN":"Monteagudo-Mendoza","FN":"A."},{"id":"145010073","LN":"Arroyo","FN":"L."},{"id":"1401973185","orcid":"0000-0001-9032-0099","LN":"Alvarez-Davila","FN":"Esteban","affil":"Fundación ConVida, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, Corporación Col-Tree"},{"id":"34808570","LN":"Higuchi","FN":"N."},{"id":"34772311","LN":"Marimon","FN":"B."},{"id":"1403055626","LN":"Marimon‐Junior","FN":"B. 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Vásquez"},{"id":"6296460","LN":"Vela","FN":"C."},{"id":"2058673132","LN":"Vieira","FN":"I."},{"id":"31946163","LN":"Phillips","FN":"O."}],"year":2018,"date":"2018-11-08","journal":"Global Change 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of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.","tldr":"A slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition."},{"id":"296bc78c86d17481e9b8983632773f3c5666b2af","numberInSourceReferences":43,"doi":"10.3389/FEART.2018.00228","type":["Review"],"title":"Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current and Future Variability and Trends","authors":[{"id":"2473622","LN":"Marengo","FN":"J."},{"id":"114814140","LN":"Souza","FN":"Carlos M."},{"id":"6402889","LN":"Thonicke","FN":"K."},{"id":"52378221","LN":"Burton","FN":"Chantelle"},{"id":"89427386","LN":"Halladay","FN":"K."},{"id":"32411931","LN":"Betts","FN":"R."},{"id":"47322741","LN":"Alves","FN":"L."},{"id":"88259497","LN":"Soares","FN":"Wagner R."}],"year":2018,"date":"2018-12-21","journal":"Frontiers in Earth 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paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6-0.7 °C over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at least 1950 (0.9 °C +0.3°C). We focus on local and remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential “die back” of the Amazon forests if surpassing a “tipping point”. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and transport is also investigated, and a review of model development for climate change projections in the region is included. In sum, future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many services requires management strategies that consider the likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from international collaboration. This also highlights the role of deforestation control in in support of policy for mitigation options as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015."},{"id":"14a62330576422c5e984be619299206110bacefb","numberInSourceReferences":12,"doi":"10.1126/SCIADV.ABA2949","type":["Editorial"],"title":"Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action","authors":[{"id":"30184944","LN":"Lovejoy","FN":"T."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."}],"year":2019,"date":"2019-12-01","journal":"Science Advances","volume":"5","references":["182f30101b0cd88b4bc1ba534cd22071e00bb894","ccb5d68fc4aef32b84fcaf409b0b672c46a2bd51"],"referencesCount":2,"citationsCount":142,"abstract":"Thomas E. Lovejoy\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nCarlos Nobre\\n\\n\\n\\nAlthough 2019 was not the worst year for fire or deforestation in the Amazon, it was the year when the extent of fires and deforestation in the region garnered full global attention. This year, the winds brought smoke from the fires into Sao Paulo, so thick that—after encountering moist air blowing from the ocean—the afternoon skies were darkened and street lights had to be lit 3 hours early for the city to continue to function. The rampant winds awoke the Brazilian populace and indeed the world to the harsh reality that the precious Amazon is teetering on the edge of functional destruction and, with it, so are we.\\n\\nFor more than 50 years, scientists and policy makers have known unequivocally ( 1 ) that the hydrological cycle of the Amazon depends squarely on the transpiration of the forest’s multitude of leaves and on the evaporation from the complex surfaces of the rain forest. When it rains on the Amazonian forest landscape, at least 75% of the moisture is returned to the westward-moving air mass. The rainforest recycles the moisture five to six times before it turns southward, feeling the proximity of the high wall of the Andes. Over the whole basin, the air rises, cools, and precipitates out close to 20% of the world’s river water in the Amazon river system.\\n\\nThe moisture of the Amazon is not confined to the basin …","tldr":"This year, the winds brought smoke from the fires into Sao Paulo, so thick that—after encountering moist air blowing from the ocean—the afternoon skies were darkened and street lights had to be lit 3 hours early for the city to continue to function."},{"id":"88b80d9466a4fb941c2b5b463dba1e2a4f23ebf4","numberInSourceReferences":44,"doi":"10.1029/2018JD029537","type":null,"title":"Effects of Deforestation on the Onset of the Rainy Season and the Duration of Dry Spells in Southern Amazonia","authors":[{"id":"1422428165","LN":"Leite‐Filho","FN":"A. T."},{"id":"2131426515","LN":"Pontes","FN":"Verônica Yameê Sousa"},{"id":"145079915","LN":"Costa","FN":"M. H."}],"year":2019,"date":"2019-05-25","journal":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"124","firstPage":"5268","lastPage":"5281","references":["7270ba244c84bf7de3d36020e1ce1c8d3b9772c7","88b42bf5471d5562c3d59fc4059b5e85733ce475","78b694385e4cf7da9218bdcf7ff606ddeabf6091","d91558a08a787e71e09150ba4a437bc29d7d950a","a6bba66187596721a4101523faa2b81ddfa10b63","0b999eb051fdefda6ec5efae076dad7d138287c8","faeb4ed5d86499dc977fb1e735a2d62b01923592","138634649d7112c209ddd06236dabec8d782b08b","9603ebbd0b60ffac3fc1e86197abfb1b50a91eca","ff704b14b9dc81b2705e2604edfb253ffdb3ddc4","11fcf6d9e32a3208c69a6c5f0af43a5a5e3dff34","f1652cd2ea3ce6d0a49e2e215e453c6c34711847","f6178c2fe9c3985b65776f86b4cb454975d85ede","467f0fdc420f5cd8996c0b2b1eb33a3dcda93c5e","5595d6e87417ba69831cd6da96e063b0a7ea373b","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","8cb6c4e9aefa4933f5d83ba7a67b2c497b30d8d2","2857ed828cbeab861d5e9669bc23ca0bae20c848","06393e8e0d910d8109e56f9310438c63f4625694","224ea7a5152b219539459eae5d65fd1ffc0d376e","5c3e02f77c9b5f94f1ba14c97a243366f1a6670f","85cae0a47e4bea7bdf5d0c61849e381ce8ec4a31","033d46f8cc18ab02817c14113d26b62e9bb658e6","b6d177053017e72f865635a33e72086e6071d825","97dc27ed0499f418218d7898675f12b7ab58d398","6cf4a150a2e157c38db3f7d2e1a2fab1f77ca979","55e600edcc38d66adf859f1cafe7822bb91d37f6","acf611742d6533b8cb9006ab9927a28004bdae0f","06534ab5320c23a9698d256afa54ca3943c86e71","bba1e70a9f69834abec8ddc8ceeef3a736a7f60d","4d322876371e3d284b9fa663f205c0dcbb98d5c7","2e9fd64679401bb6a300bcf52c038576a90a1f8e","055fa5ca568d953b3e27a225a796c49994c39b6e","b5e9e6212fc38c5709f72ac229b71e2e9350f30e","f07a56e577957915c04f35c83e7ee661f6a656fe","f9fb9378cde985eb2b1236bfe26b1ffc3f760f3a","22249a70f8a6a01cc77db9a0c625dd6e70c96fd7","6dfcb2e9c8a609fb7edadedc63e950ce503c7bf3","dd722d34d6ab95dbf62f46070becbf1a33597e50","9d1194dfe54553456e219a581b97d8c2fd7ecf64","980342dd32eea1a238dbc850037c064db36f9a73","c8cb88e4ec44ad4a8dcec584c5c08f5faf1beddb","f8a6c5720f38250695cebbca608c859bd64e9798","e51f28ecb8f3ccdd484406ddcd4bdd2bd4072536","45dab163026caf7b9de71dd9f83a97e399e66152","931764901630146075f307d320d60762c1c3729e","b6e10ca36c364559d984e99316890bbc5d94b34e","a14524141605f34b05dd73ecf6da9251d366385a","a45b1b64bf984b76589112483c2fc23e74803ac0","7b5173ad1dc51855c5e09883e37b57f3e5eb3482","e4a742a4f0585b4e4069726f6628f4d4285a0827","171ebf565992cfe391e806308fee95efb3e96605","a04e0dab01f30e207d94019464d4f7602eeac1e2","6725d723b34a43113007be9d1ccedb80eb8717b2","dcc253cfc772fc23b2201472dee990b4a4267806",null,null,"b8b7be12b5263bebe291389a645ddd301141b309",null,null,"345ec9135f0ea12e74837acb14011346b28c020f",null,null,null,"cbbde9230aa2018cce1931553fb214ee02b396df","0e93e819826f3856ed90a8cc70f72af94e472e88",null],"referencesCount":67,"citationsCount":73,"abstract":"Amazonian deforestation is causing notable changes in the hydrological cycle by altering important precipitation characteristics. This study uses daily rainfall time series data from 112 rain gauges and a recent yearly 1‐km land use data set covering the period from 1974 to 2012 to evaluate the effects of the extent of deforestation at different spatial scales on the onset of the rainy season and on the duration of dry spells in southern Amazonia. Correlation analyses indicate a delay in the onset of 0.12–0.17 days per percent increase in deforestation. Analysis of cumulative probability density functions emphasizes that the likelihood of rainy season onset occurring earlier than normal decreases as the local deforestation fraction increases. In addition, the probability of occurrence of dry spells in the early and late rainy season is higher in areas with greater deforestation. The delayed onset and longer dry spell events in highly deforested areas increase the climate risk to agriculture in the region."},{"id":"505e022f19daaf96a59040e72c7194599c219af7","numberInSourceReferences":33,"doi":"10.5194/ESSD-12-177-2020","type":null,"title":"The Global Long-term Microwave Vegetation Optical Depth Climate Archive VODCA","authors":[{"id":"115291346","LN":"Moesinger","FN":"Leander"},{"id":"2007307172","LN":"Zotta","FN":"Ruxandra-Maria"},{"id":"151419715","LN":"Schalie","FN":"Robin van der"},{"id":"3511387","LN":"Forkel","FN":"M."},{"id":"40235393","LN":"Scanlon","FN":"T."},{"id":"30959101","LN":"Teubner","FN":"Irene E."},{"id":"134632334","LN":"Jeu","FN":"R. de"},{"id":"1688378","LN":"Dorigo","FN":"W."}],"year":2019,"date":"2019-04-15","journal":"Earth System Science Data","references":["d7d47572930bbeb21b91b398df050b6e71cbe785","e5848787cc4ab12d6636c5a5ba23112fc31d75a7","3847b83264a110b1fa85efc21002dbdcfee701b8","1dc6fde41a4236a778bf2ce93e53411110ad91d6","879a1756a7e218e4c23511ac84b61ab181ab640a","2055c468a3bc4ab348c8d239fce91edb7d27aae3","0312d6dbd89b7fe721e8d54c2f1ac378e57bd4b9","89a264c9f08ba51f16a93e98b5d1ca0e70f942a3","61482897d130f8d73fc3f167ca8113b4e008ae6c","91652419beaaabca6038ccd1b16c29a5f81c966d","fda07f3c725f2851ebd65f85d6535bd1e843efb5","c0d58faacb626079a2c1eb595880bfbc89a09ec4","bdb8ba46c9747edb86d9ca5b5c8e82d76ad01378","b1d177e8274d198b22d8cc6d742f4f2fa640ea58","6bb3a5f225675d802c4dea656c35e3da2e444515","595994ea3d6d5bce055c94a8dd8e030a91a57fdd","22ada00aac87fd2ad0d1835386111f12a91f80bd","9a17d3f6c299606195547d5b94c883a46dee4b4f","5495cc817a20ca0706ff79f70d8fc52c464c596c","1dec3245eb094c789d81fa3e172982af4ee33574","aae42b28f188ddca4c3d23c28633d4723f86c5a7","2c3f0e22ba0ce08b3811afa1239c1ef4307b2c0f","1ccb70ca28b63cf5187d1fa660e202c44091e924","f5ca30ccf6222431c271c2c8672b842916806bbc","0d3f34db3b90d48fddaac721782f0401e1ab34d2","f5dc0cbf426013ddd0f074f0b1208cf98192978e","dd483b6709c3b9fbb9635bbff8cf62c143c7a5d5","ed864e22c34e43c7f939aa764cb2ae81b5771185","0b2d742dd0fe129e484622ca9ca4097fb1649f66","3076711ef383096cdeb599bf7168fb2d43b0d6f7","177385a8671f541812dbc14610891326185ec431","f077ed850896a9f361e29759894cc9cbc3059c00","5c52081d5dec619fd591bec19b9672cbadb0602e","e2e16f3c123850dffbb38765ef8fd71ebaecdaca","b047a56d832a80653fa99252dc005ac5d5bfe55c","6bf6589b8979c28bd739104c9ec7c2b014f3e309","44fa9af8cd96fd73aba1f7ea6c55620dddac23f7","c1fee2b7682c35aeb1caf3b8e28cc87691379095","f26d2908c2ea6d9d4e76cac3a244652617f23b84","9cf0c5d523f083fcab91760ed96b0d3d1ebb0b99","6ad2fd7a469701e6ca208180057036fc6c5a89bd","51ad9216faea7d92f797571931ff3c67b86c7cfc","a254fbf63c3a3df9b8918432f1c17e1f41ec6d62","c6e7ff04f80ca3d34b3af1a46aabefd8718f60df","268e50c10f32481f9d15b25cb2cb530090b7d0bc","abfcd9139be4a4505902fb787adab7b686365c1f","f9b46b7c16956e792821185c5ef3eed5a5b4cec6","e403b9fd7c2f3f6380d72f978490362b99f46c3d","3daf5c30d9fb6e27ea3a5f44d30475988a83bf7e","8d8910f855ac27dc41e3034650064988007c075a","1b42be4c685d3b79d4ccb661d218a6db6080959a","2b0a7825437868625a7afe508a72b53db013a62b","0c396e11fa8a962ebe46936ed319ca1051096449","db5875b249485c33bed0fb7d2baaa109c3b4e4f4","ebe924b7f6c21e29f83cbbce96abf1417e400d04","1673bede20fd42a3b3aba40a1ced653bc206a379","19a6a05e802e42bdf560d258a4497335cd9e1f4f","56a90938d5bfea6040023979934b1e0ff2d67783","91f92ca8b4fe294c9a1eb4f5c6f2a2b84030b8d1","a5bb8da8f3ced8dfde323295e5d813bd43898733","24fc4534f0742af1218dc89b492dfe56a0b087e0","01f5955a3e483bd3a483be4246c90304c5ce7cae",null,null,null,"3ffb691778307d004ebd22e5c2eca0f320f6841a","b179af53ef1060a82467d09f2e0410475866a4c5",null,null,null,null],"referencesCount":71,"citationsCount":148,"abstract":"\\n <p>Since the late 1970s, spaceborne microwave radiometers have been providing measurements of radiation emitted by the Earth&#8217;s surface. From these measurements it is possible to derive vegetation optical depth (VOD), a model-based indicator related to the density, biomass, and water content of vegetation. Because of its high temporal resolution and long availability, VOD can be used to monitor short- to long-term changes in vegetation. However, studying long-term VOD dynamics is generally hampered by the relatively short time span covered by the individual microwave sensors. This can potentially be overcome by merging multiple VOD products into a single climate data record. However, combining multiple sensors into a single product is challenging as systematic differences between input products like biases, different temporal and spatial resolutions and coverage need to be overcome.</p><p><br>Here, we present a new series of long-term VOD products, the VOD Climate Archive (VODCA; Moesinger et al., 2019). VODCA combines VOD retrievals that have been derived from multiple sensors (SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, Windsat and AMSR-2) using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model. We produce separate VOD products for microwave observations in different spectral bands, namely Ku-band (period 1987-2017), X-band (1997-2018) and C-band (2002-2018). In this way, our multi-band VOD products preserve the unique characteristics of each frequency with respect to the structural elements of the canopy. Our merging approach builds on an existing approach that is used to merge satellite products of surface soil moisture<sup>1,2</sup>.&#160;</p><p><br>The characteristics of VODCA are assessed for self-consistency and against other products. Using an autocorrelation analysis, we show that the merging of the multiple data sets successfully reduces the random error compared to the input data sets. Spatio-temporal patterns and anomalies of the merged products show consistency between frequencies and with Leaf Area Index observations from the MODIS instrument as well as with Vegetation Continuous Fields from the AVHRR instruments. Long-term trends in Ku-Band VODCA show that since 1987 there has been a decline in VOD in the tropics and in large parts of east-central and north Asia, while a substantial increase is observed in India, large parts of Australia, southern Africa, southeastern China and central north America. In summary, VODCA shows vast potential for monitoring spatial-temporal ecosystem changes as it is sensitive to vegetation water content and unaffected by cloud cover or high sun zenith angles. As such it complements existing long-term optical indices of greenness and leaf area.&#160;</p><p><sup>1</sup>Gruber, A., Scanlon, T., van der Schalie, R., Wagner, W., Dorigo, W. (2019) Evolution of the CCI Soil Moisture Climate Data Records and their underlying merging methodology. Earth System Science Data 11, 717-739. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-717-2019</p><p><sup>2</sup>Dorigo, W.A., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, E., Hamer, D. P. Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., De Jeu, R. Kidd, R. Lahoz, W., Liu, Y.Y., Miralles, D., Lecomte, P. (2017). ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. In Remote Sensing of Environment, 2017, ISSN 0034-4257, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001.</p>\\n"},{"id":"2dba24d0ae646a9562d1bdef3b2605325e65dc0f","numberInSourceReferences":7,"doi":"10.1038/S41586-020-2035-0","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests","authors":[{"id":"49159670","LN":"Hubau","FN":"W."},{"id":"3890299","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S."},{"id":"31946163","LN":"Phillips","FN":"O."},{"id":"1401876257","LN":"Affum‐Baffoe","FN":"K."},{"id":"6772280","LN":"Beeckman","FN":"H."},{"id":"1403601380","LN":"Cuni‐Sanchez","FN":"A."},{"id":"1521959264","LN":"Daniels","FN":"Armandu K."},{"id":"4958426","LN":"Ewango","FN":"C."},{"id":"6518169","LN":"Fauset","FN":"S."},{"id":"1521981534","LN":"Mukinzi","FN":"Jacques M."},{"id":"2655661","LN":"Sheil","FN":"D."},{"id":"6112300","LN":"Sonké","FN":"B."},{"id":"40018786","LN":"Sullivan","FN":"Martin J. 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the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s and independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass reinforce the conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked."},{"id":"0e56e9006d1a992de243e129025a000f3bc791a4","numberInSourceReferences":30,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.2024192118","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point","authors":[{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."},{"id":"41032146","LN":"Rypdal","FN":"M."}],"year":2021,"date":"2021-05-17","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of 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It has been suggested that, in response to anthropogenic global warming, the Greenland Ice Sheet may reach a tipping point beyond which its current configuration would become unstable. A crucial nonlinear mechanism for the existence of this tipping point is the positive melt-elevation feedback: Melting reduces ice sheet height, exposing the ice sheet surface to warmer temperatures, which further accelerates melting. We reveal early-warning signals for a forthcoming critical transition from ice-core-derived height reconstructions and infer that the western Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing stability in response to rising temperatures. We show that the melt-elevation feedback is likely to be responsible for the observed destabilization. Our results suggest substantially enhanced melting in the near future. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a potentially unstable component of the Earth system and may exhibit a critical transition under ongoing global warming. Mass reductions of the GrIS have substantial impacts on global sea level and the speed of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, due to the additional freshwater caused by increased meltwater runoff into the northern Atlantic. The stability of the GrIS depends crucially on the positive melt-elevation feedback (MEF), by which melt rates increase as the overall ice sheet height decreases under rising temperatures. Melting rates across Greenland have accelerated nonlinearly in recent decades, and models predict a critical temperature threshold beyond which the current ice sheet state is not maintainable. Here, we investigate long-term melt rate and ice sheet height reconstructions from the central-western GrIS in combination with model simulations to quantify the stability of this part of the GrIS. We reveal significant early-warning signals (EWS) indicating that the central-western GrIS is close to a critical transition. By relating the statistical EWS to underlying physical processes, our results suggest that the MEF plays a dominant role in the observed, ongoing destabilization of the central-western GrIS. Our results suggest substantial further GrIS mass loss in the near future and call for urgent, observation-constrained stability assessments of other parts of the GrIS.","tldr":"Long-term melt rate and ice sheet height reconstructions from the central-western GrIS are investigated in combination with model simulations to quantify the stability of this part of the GrIS and suggest substantial further GrIS mass loss in the near future."},{"id":"5c6a907a418896b8aee17663e8c87895c1622fd3","numberInSourceReferences":31,"doi":"10.1038/S41558-021-01097-4","type":null,"title":"Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation","authors":[{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."}],"year":2021,"date":"2021-08-01","journal":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"11","firstPage":"680","lastPage":"688","references":["0e56e9006d1a992de243e129025a000f3bc791a4","3d9b7c8ce26dad35dfac58642ebe17b100a770ef","3dea643893221f22cfb9a10a0976cd7ffcebdde5","3b45b094846d08739d80caf9ea734f0b536b6e0a","03ca75ab7f117c1d56dc86f53592461ff6ccc932","9caba192412655d921a1254fcca807cb3ee44b4c","3be6c4805b97f9d5b0780317e1a079a1a0b6a2b9","074f5ca4c823c806d3ef09bae9ebfdfb5f99713a","21f5816d86ba63813e5577175ff0a3a91230ef83","809c3a4b4417a97a879a5b43191c3329627ea17a","fd43c9fcea1b32d98523800308539dab02937a1e","c2dae083b5d082978b1994dc79c19d32a0b3274a","3e7d27f19939236d423eb50b7fd2a41c0a75f770","d29499176341f41ce08a2401750b5f3a0bb55b25","7ea7e4f3f7519d433d6343be0ea1c1dc094ecd06","12e24ffae041240f57e8fd711168bea8f6a59851","e25e0c03b571c6a1fcf16dbee17b0fa5f625cc1c","5494ddf65de21fb76874de9965cdc2030b70adf3","d3abc3ee8e73350e20273db799c6e1c5ad7fa452","21a90973a461ed3abb64ae02cf0202009fa88ba4","10c9d9296f2f62ed876acdc9a7faad8eb0c2ae96","9e2b5146d43268cde0a223c4ebafead8b63d7528","a591162ef4abf98dcbad0b8a14b95b8c3dfcd8ae","958fe4590f04472c3e914045cebb1ed72b5c17cd","cbf56bec97c2eed53a5713912b268d1efd2d10d0","e0d6dd2c5cda949d143dcbe130f367bff3eb9934","609c6de604f6bb444cc021a0551bedd0f3023877","54118303ed178ee7f102e34609d7c526d25edd71","93d96b3754cc473036dc2061cdb31c7316cdd32a","d8c0b8fac1416ff8eba7b463509b8fd5fe2f35f1","14ac2f766c7e86aa87321f81e6fb91d6d45e57a2","5f4baf9dcfa83fea6feb6492ec746193313cb8a1","340a367252fa11d5c99e5b57e483ca0b9ece0de6","f4a23c448a2a3075c9956e973ab9ad5782b5e53a","b22b40906454d3eec7fdbd79bef269e2ad2fe096","5aa322ea3005a6375eb59ab5cf8c985ca7124508","0ddd687dcfc35bb318a2b75be7cdbfbc287e85c5","6a54c0791e97836fb98a8abffda4974af5a66229","9758a5cb826ed7199ee8822f08108fd6bbf7a106","c04f8d58d460fa0f16b89063b6a2251973686afb","402330be796707ca7856f814c9fa7ce6f7ecc2e9","6ef5f14bee23e150535bbc780b5ad0066ad7021d","c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3","7bc019d3bf9b9ecc293c6e97b1b76055ced6692d","a8f2928e5a793206b0d40289e7f763f6ad76fbe9","4d41108590a7823ea9b943bd4c614534edba3b8d","bc809d384ea2fdc507be9fa84ed0f21b5c66b789","389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","185839f463430585cba7156ccf3d608ed56598e9","8c6e3842dac2b493532d7d76a7945b420cdddf88","2cfa67696a36298c5a1dd5c3f6e52479ee9081eb","70fae121f412c19612115eff06c13134b8cb2060","7411530aa26843b62f9174fa9d004bab72e476dc","7be1503a792568ba35e9ba65a6a98876dc2bc808","36a509d35869b5c11a2a5ffab1fd2ec85f4f739d","15542c6d47b8b40998daf02ea65678d23bb24ae5","c076a09e667635f2ccaa3cd36b9cc4ca0258cd7b","0c4b8f4d27d7f37673331ebd9402d160f2360f76","ae24213e213c8a3b6ec752c62ebc0d14595808fb","fb0f84092776169eb2afde1c08c884b7100f14b2","63e1d8f990205bf7de27adf0189f502f365c1520",null,null,null],"referencesCount":64,"citationsCount":148,"abstract":null},{"id":"f7014c1b0b2e820ba82a017924590f3098b49910","numberInSourceReferences":4,"doi":"10.1038/S41586-021-03629-6","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change","authors":[{"id":"39180211","LN":"Gatti","FN":"L."},{"id":"34014240","LN":"Basso","FN":"L."},{"id":"2220078865","LN":"Miller","FN":"John B."},{"id":"1914617344","LN":"Gloor","FN":"M."},{"id":"2119570914","LN":"Domingues","FN":"Lucas Gatti"},{"id":"69951942","LN":"Cassol","FN":"H."},{"id":"14675529","LN":"Tejada","FN":"Graciela"},{"id":"143710790","LN":"Aragão","FN":"L."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."},{"id":"48304008","LN":"Peters","FN":"W."},{"id":"90157891","LN":"Marani","FN":"L."},{"id":"35046261","LN":"Arai","FN":"E."},{"id":"2119557552","LN":"Sanches","FN":"Alber H."},{"id":"12917908","LN":"Corrêa","FN":"S."},{"id":"144659017","LN":"Anderson","FN":"L."},{"id":"8961038","LN":"Randow","FN":"C. von"},{"id":"108428610","LN":"Correia","FN":"Caio S. 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reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass","authors":[{"id":"39905364","LN":"Liu","FN":"Yi Y."},{"id":"38633226","LN":"Dijk","FN":"A."},{"id":"71832481","LN":"Jeu","FN":"R."},{"id":"66251280","LN":"Canadell","FN":"J."},{"id":"20538593","LN":"Mccabe","FN":"M."},{"id":"10088154","LN":"Evans","FN":"J."},{"id":"1630578473","LN":"Wang","FN":"Guojie"}],"year":2015,"date":"2015-05-01","journal":"Nature Climate 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Here we reveal that if the Amazon region becomes drier as predicted, forests may collapse first on seasonally inundated areas due to their vulnerability to wildfires. The widespread distribution of floodplain forests at the western and central regions implies that fire-prone savannas may expand deep into this massive forest biome, threatening the resilience of the entire system. Our findings suggest the need for a strategic fire management plan to strengthen Amazonian forest resilience in the face of climate change. The massive forests of central Amazonia are often considered relatively resilient against climatic variation, but this view is challenged by the wildfires invoked by recent droughts. The impact of such fires that spread from pervasive sources of ignition may reveal where forests are less likely to persist in a drier future. Here we combine field observations with remotely sensed information for the whole Amazon to show that the annually inundated lowland forests that run through the heart of the system may be trapped relatively easily into a fire-dominated savanna state. This lower forest resilience on floodplains is suggested by patterns of tree cover distribution across the basin, and supported by our field and remote sensing studies showing that floodplain fires have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on forest structure as well as soil fertility. Although floodplains cover only 14% of the Amazon basin, their fires can have substantial cascading effects because forests and peatlands may release large amounts of carbon, and wildfires can spread to adjacent uplands. Floodplains are thus an Achilles’ heel of the Amazon system when it comes to the risk of large-scale climate-driven transitions.","tldr":"It is revealed that if the Amazon region becomes drier as predicted, forests may collapse first on seasonally inundated areas due to their vulnerability to wildfires, suggesting the need for a strategic fire management plan to strengthen Amazonian forest resilience in the face of climate change."},{"id":"ac2f7ce4fd521c11d3654b85839b96ef41a0f287","numberInSourceReferences":45,"doi":"10.1002/JOC.6335","type":null,"title":"The southern Amazon rainy season: The role of deforestation and its interactions with large‐scale mechanisms","authors":[{"id":"1422428165","LN":"Leite‐Filho","FN":"A. T."},{"id":"145079915","LN":"Costa","FN":"M. H."},{"id":"144348225","LN":"Fu","FN":"R."}],"year":2019,"date":"2019-10-24","journal":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"40","firstPage":"2328","lastPage":"2341","references":["96be5adbe241796c84c8c6a1ff6b886974d568b8","88b80d9466a4fb941c2b5b463dba1e2a4f23ebf4","e9377466392121c6f5f139e28bff1a89627ca0fd","67b0c9accd98ac21e7a216ec114013a392bac159","96f95a559886c63188c0967ed9f9b80668f023f9","cee515a242d3ae04e4cc5b160a48b662c771f18e","88b42bf5471d5562c3d59fc4059b5e85733ce475","d91558a08a787e71e09150ba4a437bc29d7d950a","1efa0b30df6b5dffcf30956028dd5d7cbef3b7ce","1668dbdf4a0f0c8923a654f916ed48863ab61da5","faeb4ed5d86499dc977fb1e735a2d62b01923592","138634649d7112c209ddd06236dabec8d782b08b","12334afe89c06c07a1409d4442a1d51c26e10d93","182f30101b0cd88b4bc1ba534cd22071e00bb894","11fcf6d9e32a3208c69a6c5f0af43a5a5e3dff34","4cf2ec5cf28ae7f8945a0466e9dfa10a675c72af","53f744c41e7973198bd6f2c2bf6e3a9bad30a545","e317820eff7bf69a4989edec5054dc541e88d77d","f1652cd2ea3ce6d0a49e2e215e453c6c34711847","3bf399b65bb6843a4961d77ec34d0d9b3d1d1509","ae31b1350400486c24d7185956ba67bf17499372","148eab200052891576a44de4a1838269588f0873","472aea074d1da3b35d7c1801c5dc0f802b1a8250","467f0fdc420f5cd8996c0b2b1eb33a3dcda93c5e","5595d6e87417ba69831cd6da96e063b0a7ea373b","549fb637e079bbab5e197c4cda5cd1dd684accba","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","2857ed828cbeab861d5e9669bc23ca0bae20c848","c3e58554e0378bdcbe49f3a015eab05287b7696c","3facf4ede23b65a6d09279501fdbb2ba90aa065f","2ef3d560d93620d057ce0fc65b07e6267a9aff31","e5d59ad7dcb47decfeeb7aaa7c014f9f028ed04f","48d40378bf4adb8c15df2d3d7e992ef89cc8c18a","cd208243adede122cc89357261d715fea17f607b","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","b6d177053017e72f865635a33e72086e6071d825","0451af3e636bf74400f8f394fc3ec9d3e69bb0df","684a2f7b21b574aef46201c60e4bc16a3af51c95","12771dd7bbcfc1d025aa4e6379bbf6a31cb51d18","b5cc74fa4628988b056895e527cda037e4f00d22","e48519d3c61774002f8fd10fe55d88e9a1c6c2a9","179c148d53cb894621fe1b2e0fd9bb9334c2eaf6","22249a70f8a6a01cc77db9a0c625dd6e70c96fd7","6dfcb2e9c8a609fb7edadedc63e950ce503c7bf3","f8a6c5720f38250695cebbca608c859bd64e9798","e51f28ecb8f3ccdd484406ddcd4bdd2bd4072536","45dab163026caf7b9de71dd9f83a97e399e66152","a4e4a86c3ac1ecefe86d6189fb6f1d5f58aa3491","f95b245d5266ba81adf1400b9b9d73ade1d09612","319fd12a60b838ad7dda305c16e23fc6ae7aa841","0b87e6de96be1b862af050f8271756596bda7574","cd63c4776ef11a28e0737b9399f9d032f4e50965","a04e0dab01f30e207d94019464d4f7602eeac1e2","f1c092f9490ccd2f40f8ddee21754da33cb5ffa1","37c9cda09c824261fe30ee74c2dad2afa1332c63","b8b7be12b5263bebe291389a645ddd301141b309","748eb5c9e03c6c74f9c8cc31d0b7ee04049b776a","c24f25b483d51102fe845a284ea0a475b19562f9","7665f03f4728ea1a2c7271c8b31a9d6ad4e63819",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null],"referencesCount":94,"citationsCount":58,"abstract":"Past studies presented evidence that deforestation may affect the precipitation seasonality in southern Amazon. This study uses daily rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission 3B42 product and a recent yearly 1‐km land use dataset to evaluate the quantitative effects of deforestation on the onset, demise and length of the rainy season in southern Amazon for a period of 15 years (1998–2012). Additionally, we use the Niño4 index, zonal wind data and deforestation data to explain and predict the interannual variability of the onset of the rainy season. During this period, onset has delayed ~0.38 ± 0.05 days per year (5.7 ± 0.75 days in 15 years), demise has advanced 1.34 ± 0.76 days per year (20 ± 11.4 days in 15 years) and the rainy season has shortened by 1.81 ± 0.97 days per year (27 ± 14.5 days in 15 years). Onset, demise and length also present meridional and zonal gradients linked to large‐scale climate mechanisms. After removing the effects related to geographical position and year, we verified a relationship between onset, demise and length and deforestation: Onset delays ~0.4 ± 0.12 day, demise advances ~1.0 ± 0.22 day and length decreases ~0.9 ± 0.34 day per each 10% deforestation increase relative to existing forested area. We also present empirical evidence of the interaction between large‐scale and local‐scale processes, with interannual variation of the onset in the region explained by Niño4 sea surface temperature anomalies, Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet position, deforestation and their interactions (r2 = 69%, p < .001, mean absolute error = 2.7 days)."},{"id":"434ca529b68aabfb4835ac2cb8a8a3da6f83efe1","numberInSourceReferences":48,"doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/AB9CFF","type":null,"title":"An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures","authors":[{"id":"11342353","LN":"Ciemer","FN":"Catrin"},{"id":"1672379569","LN":"Rehm","FN":"Lars"},{"id":"143842718","LN":"Kurths","FN":"J."},{"id":"2995629","LN":"Donner","FN":"R."},{"id":"47177709","LN":"Winkelmann","FN":"R."},{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."}],"year":2020,"date":"2020-06-15","journal":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"15","references":["7eb633f568c0be35e77b1ddadf7d867c3ed0cb14","a3f78c433942f915a40cc0f994056d286b611ff1","30b58ad6dfff36f7366df9f2b851466f796b967b","824fbf100b6b2a569abda5347f31b40270783f56","12334afe89c06c07a1409d4442a1d51c26e10d93","6f44552f1a1e9752610efab648b10d1bba6148f7","ed8713ca0d4e263cbb12c0da16fe56d6abc732fd","4c0bfb8b92b287f58c0487c79e4083f5b8b4a552","e317820eff7bf69a4989edec5054dc541e88d77d","65989ad6a285e94fce9a180d82266a9e1c51dc1e","fbac5ff94174ca783e731a7a4007c96248288bfe","365ab3e5a0b058d8acf37cf03687d83b9a8941c6","821d1bad58a5697a4a521bf169a256b9ca34084a","d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","1dc886ac2f208422112e7670647c99b5e22966ed","50963d76d9ba8b0e39cbe5616234a1cc87cae52e","acc59a30d83ff1a9b64e0ab38918baf635b1891d","0bd45c23f2e32de7edf334432a765842883b0968","a010b76e1a809da5a128def075a310b1b1511593","2ef3d560d93620d057ce0fc65b07e6267a9aff31","a8cc30f4e21e94e2789615df4d08c05d9e7c66c7","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","354f931b92a51180bbeaf49f89d662ee7984ab50","1d2b88cdca8f382dce619b818b562b85f7e17411","a5765169625611cbd0f322b26e7eff2bfb98c1ef","1605448e0a7784977cbf1cfb09f3d3b0ce9533d2","12771dd7bbcfc1d025aa4e6379bbf6a31cb51d18","852a3dff0d0f852641d5de3daa93dc57c570e6f2","ff77d554e4174900682f17e13834b1a56052fb81","0316374ff1199b079471543f239fe68622a97cec","d5c6603b13e566d0c1508db4ed82e517f18253b6","38ac8621e56003d0c91ecf4e3d24f403f28d5a9d","d73b49915376faf12fa1a1ea803faab9d701caee","ba9eebacf27fed90db8b1ec70c3ef6446a144cfd","68b7efac05d1761d3ada2419bbdeb37220566bf5","762aa6130506c839e3dfe7fc2e15b4962aa41b94","4097d1d38c786f89b895eb17daaf2de1d1a79b14","c3f7136d6cb726b295eb34565a8270177c57f40f"],"referencesCount":38,"citationsCount":19,"abstract":"Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months."},{"numberInSourceReferences":57,"title":"Missing: 10.5281/ZENODO.5837469 (id not found in S2)","authors":[]},{"id":"5f4253cd9b20839c0b56de5011b948eaf3bb8eab","numberInSourceReferences":1,"doi":"10.1038/S41558-022-01287-8","type":null,"title":"Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s","authors":[{"id":"3460476","LN":"Boulton","FN":"C."},{"id":"1789900","LN":"Lenton","FN":"T."},{"id":"49920070","LN":"Boers","FN":"N."}],"year":2021,"date":"2021-04-14","journal":"Nature Climate 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The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Nino-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset."},{"id":"2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","numberInSourceReferences":7,"doi":"10.1029/2006GL028946","type":null,"title":"Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts","authors":[{"id":"143710790","LN":"Aragão","FN":"L."},{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"1403548522","LN":"Roman-Cuesta","FN":"R."},{"id":"1688112","LN":"Saatchi","FN":"S."},{"id":"144659017","LN":"Anderson","FN":"L."},{"id":"3391591","LN":"Shimabukuro","FN":"Y."}],"year":2007,"date":"2007-04-01","journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"34","references":["987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","ebdf988f8836af804c39fb27ac77831c0b4f8199","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","609cd0bc2351ddb76777332c95db3ef8a2b04f3a","b1bb849237edf695b4185a9bf9855fa1fe1306a5","4d322876371e3d284b9fa663f205c0dcbb98d5c7","96a630a6cd9049bd66593c88b8ceb52675192ef7","090256bdc67eace0034cdc673595803cede39617","12771dd7bbcfc1d025aa4e6379bbf6a31cb51d18","2856df3bd23a719593c0adc3ab2f95aa419596cb","fbfb5fb4646201931a819cb96a7b7971a45de5ca","cb79bdaeffbebfa6de28582756e97a8bd57ba995","6143cc9b7aedd9e5e6033d4c09b7d55c6356fc31","319fd12a60b838ad7dda305c16e23fc6ae7aa841","57f990c3ba70ab8fbb913a99a3f8d5b5460f62a6","d580add46161cc71662f2a2bb4b7b18cbf03d996","bbd2a717137e2c8e76498e9f9cbada34dea27242","2dbb1000eb776711f9e3c76a0f78d5f12668910f","47d2fa4504dc29955cc48c7dcffbdbbb38a17781","0d099590f6efe76f8f88bb11034720f73a9b1ae4",null,null],"referencesCount":22,"citationsCount":492,"abstract":"There has been an increasing awareness of the possibility of climate change causing increased drought frequency in Amazonia, with ensuing impacts on ecosystems and human populations. This debate has been brought into focus by the 1997/1998 and 2005 Amazonian droughts. We analysed the spatial extent of these droughts and fire response to the 2005 drought with TRMM and NOAA‐12 data, respectively. Both droughts had distinct fingerprints. The 2005 drought was characterized by its intensification throughout the dry season in south‐western Amazonia. During 2005 the annual cumulative number of hot pixels in Amazonia increased 33% in relation to the 1999–2005 mean. In the Brazilian state of Acre, at the epicentre of the 2005 drought, the area of leakage forest fires was more than five times greater than the area directly deforested. Fire leakage into flammable forests may be the major agent of biome transformation in the event of increasing drought frequency."},{"id":"a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","numberInSourceReferences":6,"doi":"10.1029/2007GL029695","type":null,"title":"Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America","authors":[{"id":"2072945392","LN":"Salazar","FN":"L."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."},{"id":"8387804","LN":"Oyama","FN":"M."}],"year":2007,"date":"2007-05-16","journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"34","references":["85859541f542a9526e3b4579683f4090388be102","086b6041fdf108ddad98d3750930bf661ff7aa5a","7ef0e426effaf080329e06e38f9f7b0fc4385414","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","614f0a07eab4d3240918acda9ca6180b58e89b19","90f7bdbd989d77ab2813895f65357aa7f717aeb9","f9fb9378cde985eb2b1236bfe26b1ffc3f760f3a","64921b0721e6f8bf82174d8df17c6db1bb7cd7fb","4a31feb8468936a9bb3246196bcff5a3bc2d0c99","b6e6f4994066264a4b30ef8554e77116ed125131","45dab163026caf7b9de71dd9f83a97e399e66152","15d6e82e44229d5bdc79a971cbbb70bb05786c1e","7f9b35cfebe3f2ccbce2fbfa9f6d8a502f58af99","deda41530c48862aaae37a6aaabefb5c2e379181","6e604804edaccd7b7e6665f95490dc34ad058cd9","00b5fba881b7da35d59c87d241ef6c8a96c3a31e","00f7a86fd4892323399365ecb821ae578e35fa27",null,"afc68fc8effbffb30de0b6a4c29d2c802900e07b",null,null,"63921a7724e8f06953dab5ec1fa1bc1a09ce68bc","fa92432314cd0fbb3707e0ebf24d820176df3510"],"referencesCount":23,"citationsCount":411,"abstract":"We studied the consequences of projected climate change on biome distribution in South America in the 21st century by forcing a potential vegetation model with climate scenarios from 15 climate models for two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). This analysis was carried out for the savanna and tropical forest biomes, which are the predominant biomes in tropical South America. In both scenarios, the results indicate reduction of tropical forest cover areas which would be replaced by savannas. This reduction of tropical forests increases with the time through the end of the 21st century, mostly over southeastern Amazonia. Considering the biome changes from current potential vegetation in the case when at least 75% of the calculations agree on the projected biome change (consensus), the decrease of the tropical forest area in South America is 3% for the period 2020–2029, 9% for 2050–2059 and 18% for 2090–2099 for the A2 emission scenario."},{"id":"987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","numberInSourceReferences":8,"doi":"10.1175/2007JCLI1600.1","type":null,"title":"The Drought of Amazonia in 2005","authors":[{"id":"2473622","LN":"Marengo","FN":"J."},{"id":"48778877","LN":"Nobre","FN":"C."},{"id":"6464815","LN":"Tomasella","FN":"J."},{"id":"8387804","LN":"Oyama","FN":"M."},{"id":"2263547252","LN":"de","FN":"Gilvan Sampaio"},{"id":"2263536743","LN":"Oliveira","FN":""},{"id":"2264645189","LN":"Oliveira","FN":"Rafael de"},{"id":"32521054","LN":"Camargo","FN":"H."},{"id":"47322741","LN":"Alves","FN":"L."},{"id":"2263537549","LN":"Brown","FN":"Irving F."}],"year":2008,"date":"2008-02-01","journal":"Journal of Climate","volume":"21","firstPage":"495","lastPage":"516","references":["e89df81d4180e7a0c7c63c0534f37b3264ce0861","f4b3845e99bfd0065b991758833fc61da1a34911","185839f463430585cba7156ccf3d608ed56598e9","6d834c820da4f315a04ee397129ece43c9b37d46","90d23d2e491b61d51163d8ec0a70a195e61a1e68","0617f73b7f43a857f514b734a049512453a16568","684a2f7b21b574aef46201c60e4bc16a3af51c95","4d322876371e3d284b9fa663f205c0dcbb98d5c7","34af8278b0a32fb2f5b3889c0e1213cff11e5c84","614f0a07eab4d3240918acda9ca6180b58e89b19","0033a982ee51655842c80096ba996a3d42cf784a","12771dd7bbcfc1d025aa4e6379bbf6a31cb51d18","5a87617d0acf59ae487bfd5d89d8c14006d67010","cd36d4c2e7355b8446d3cdf70dc7a6413267ea84","22249a70f8a6a01cc77db9a0c625dd6e70c96fd7","c2e836e994565692b311f154f10e22753afc4baa","6143cc9b7aedd9e5e6033d4c09b7d55c6356fc31","a680f8f8c7b545b5defda9980cabe13c8beff9d4","e6b3461e00f8dd937aaa9b05cbb1245139bc9b81","49f1012f09c331d73ca6982e0359a9a9128d9ca0","38ac8621e56003d0c91ecf4e3d24f403f28d5a9d","41b3e8725e79c76157d3ba691f27afb6ec3ac638","a9e77a5c2982df71ea0473fe11299e8714656b2a","34eab32582187bd6b3a3bcd391f17e466c0373c5","319fd12a60b838ad7dda305c16e23fc6ae7aa841","fafbaef6e1e1d51633500975375e0008d2e6e2f6","729b0e3e8f37ec760947a2be926e7345cb73b2d3","9c2edf3c71130f2c257db7ac814222fa081a6ac0","c705cb150ba516a679578fab44a50d47ad6dfcfe",null,"a1bd5c219f397b9b4242d94a1d2a59b52df4cc05","47d2fa4504dc29955cc48c7dcffbdbbb38a17781",null,null,null,null,null,null,"b955fa2ac4facabd59d683ee82b4699fcf6b12c3","f5260d24b41e9d13728eb00bf3bfa94c1eb4788a",null,"6693250ba244eb2880861fb0f6e35646aed892a1",null],"referencesCount":43,"citationsCount":662,"abstract":"Abstract In 2005, large sections of southwestern Amazonia experienced one of the most intense droughts of the last hundred years. The drought severely affected human population along the main channel of the Amazon River and its western and southwestern tributaries, the Solimoes (also known as the Amazon River in the other Amazon countries) and the Madeira Rivers, respectively. The river levels fell to historic low levels and navigation along these rivers had to be suspended. The drought did not affect central or eastern Amazonia, a pattern different from the El Nino–related droughts in 1926, 1983, and 1998. The choice of rainfall data used influenced the detection of the drought. While most datasets (station or gridded data) showed negative departures from mean rainfall, one dataset exhibited above-normal rainfall in western Amazonia. The causes of the drought were not related to El Nino but to (i) the anomalously warm tropical North Atlantic, (ii) the reduced intensity in northeast trade wind moisture tr..."},{"id":"4ee0ec1e47aa74424a0a090f73b8603d776cb6ce","numberInSourceReferences":3,"doi":"10.1073/PNAS.0804619106","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest","authors":[{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"143710790","LN":"Aragão","FN":"L."},{"id":"34946876","LN":"Galbraith","FN":"D."},{"id":"2804586","LN":"Huntingford","FN":"C."},{"id":"49353300","LN":"Fisher","FN":"R."},{"id":"50088996","LN":"Zelazowski","FN":"P."},{"id":"3728155","LN":"Sitch","FN":"S."},{"id":"144690723","LN":"McSweeney","FN":"C."},{"id":"144938923","LN":"Meir","FN":"P."}],"year":2009,"date":"2009-12-08","journal":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","volume":"106","firstPage":"20610","lastPage":"20615","references":["37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","62361cb63ed1c54d09063a13a98d946a1a635e8a","1563068db0707d4cedcc14b4de057ab117fbed50","80409f2342be237a797ac94d5095efa57a55ec42","d7b4a30c881f74acf8eae8cf4ccc79ef5d0437a3","2eed542cfb60b30f4fe0dbfa54b573398ba6993e","ad291bd5b21860267afd7c5a1fc6d44148de71cf","cd340ab18afaab2163fcf109ce3b8a9db7a268ce","87be4d31120aaeed69e8329fbed88594ef6c9a30","863c42b6f9ca86a8eba8105a064a7a5b01ec07d6","389ec712b590cba24a184aa9704bcfad0970f1b0","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","e3b85621274dad81a33ec4b7d07e3ba1857597dc","da3b009864e1f75e882f3713a50e0de7bd977aa9","1d8c6d421da1e01e9e3c0cade4904de9e4240452","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","cfc1a3fbd2fe229045e0c53f7f9609e80ab3f8d5","8a331f5a3e5ee466fd8920ab57f3b08f67cf2843","a8ee4ef420c2c6a90ee221bcb74b1663e111675c","91887a0bf5788a99ac5a7cf130bcf60cf8e79c75","4923d201cc50dc60ea1c78dd42b6092ce7e8863e","29e0b01bab1c7cea2a91f55ff0624162654ef127","7afcd328055f1e18f9f5e5f744f677e6c1427785","53919d771d66d723a5eeacf39a655206ab92d86a","35ab138c1c0b0d83023abada822992191eea0e69","a637f09be32f8ff15cf16b60321aaa74cb208ac1","090256bdc67eace0034cdc673595803cede39617","b9bfa59b4e92d76d84a5041438427663f87e2b1c","614f0a07eab4d3240918acda9ca6180b58e89b19","3ec481005e118dfdfbc6c0d5eff267eacf9e2c0a","193157d65ace8bac8625d3617de42e5516bf653a","0f43146e8240f1204a7f1884311c17236d331d6b","361c5a402b8e61f2df3bf7356b656c7c69264221",null,null,"4d619b602c109930fccec728c2ad11b5da84c062"],"referencesCount":37,"citationsCount":869,"abstract":"We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale “dieback” or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia. We attempt to take into account the differences between GCM-simulated and observed rainfall regimes in the 20th century. Our analysis suggests that dry-season water stress is likely to increase in E. Amazonia over the 21st century, but the region tends toward a climate more appropriate to seasonal forest than to savanna. These seasonal forests may be resilient to seasonal drought but are likely to face intensified water stress caused by higher temperatures and to be vulnerable to fires, which are at present naturally rare in much of Amazonia. The spread of fire ignition associated with advancing deforestation, logging, and fragmentation may act as nucleation points that trigger the transition of these seasonal forests into fire-dominated, low biomass forests. Conversely, deliberate limitation of deforestation and fire may be an effective intervention to maintain Amazonian forest resilience in the face of imposed 21st-century climate change. Such intervention may be enough to navigate E. Amazonia away from a possible “tipping point,” beyond which extensive rainforest would become unsustainable.","tldr":"A new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests is employed and from this precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability are deduced, suggesting that dry-season water stress is likely to increase in E. Amazonia over the 21st century, but the region tends toward a climate more appropriate to seasonal forest than to savanna."},{"id":"8eae17d86e6366f535382447172dfdc2b2c97bc8","numberInSourceReferences":2,"doi":"10.1126/SCIENCE.1164033","type":["JournalArticle"],"title":"Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest","authors":[{"id":"31946163","LN":"Phillips","FN":"O."},{"id":"143710790","LN":"Aragão","FN":"L."},{"id":"3890299","LN":"Lewis","FN":"S."},{"id":"144450239","LN":"Fisher","FN":"J."},{"id":"145903306","LN":"Lloyd","FN":"J."},{"id":"1380697522","LN":"Lopez-Gonzalez","FN":"G."},{"id":"48401102","LN":"Malhi","FN":"Y."},{"id":"5043858","LN":"Monteagudo","FN":"A."},{"id":"50106199","LN":"Peacock","FN":"J."},{"id":"144154303","LN":"Quesada","FN":"C."},{"id":"35353707","LN":"Heijden","FN":"G. V. D. van der"},{"id":"31504293","LN":"Almeida","FN":"S."},{"id":"37650462","LN":"Amaral","FN":"I."},{"id":"145010073","LN":"Arroyo","FN":"L."},{"id":"152144449","LN":"Aymard","FN":"G."},{"id":"40622085","LN":"Baker","FN":"T."},{"id":"5451009","LN":"Bánki","FN":"O."},{"id":"3088285","LN":"Blanc","FN":"L."},{"id":"48886858","LN":"Bonal","FN":"D."},{"id":"7322794","LN":"Brando","FN":"P."},{"id":"2297173","LN":"Chave","FN":"J."},{"id":"5366433","LN":"Oliveira","FN":"A. A. D. de"},{"id":"6935249","LN":"Cardozo","FN":"N. D."},{"id":"3771601","LN":"Czimczik","FN":"C."},{"id":"4353231","LN":"Feldpausch","FN":"T."},{"id":"134394799","LN":"Freitas","FN":"M. A."},{"id":"49211532","LN":"Gloor","FN":"E."},{"id":"34808570","LN":"Higuchi","FN":"N."},{"id":"153675053","LN":"Jimenez","FN":"E."},{"id":"1392779094","LN":"Lloyd","FN":"G."},{"id":"144938923","LN":"Meir","FN":"P."},{"id":"108782812","LN":"Mendoza","FN":"C."},{"id":"47118277","LN":"Morel","FN":"A."},{"id":"143840001","LN":"Neill","FN":"D."},{"id":"4820713","LN":"Nepstad","FN":"D."},{"id":"145774814","LN":"Patiño","FN":"S."},{"id":"6003183","LN":"Peñuela","FN":"M."},{"id":"5095065","LN":"Prieto","FN":"A."},{"id":"89201060","LN":"Ramírez","FN":"F."},{"id":"153056533","LN":"Schwarz","FN":"M."},{"id":"2111017435","LN":"Silva","FN":"Javier"},{"id":"145888672","LN":"Silveira","FN":"M."},{"id":"2109406549","LN":"Thomas","FN":"Anne Sota"},{"id":"87996698","LN":"Steege","FN":"H."},{"id":"6229538","LN":"Stropp","FN":"J."},{"id":"47251827","LN":"Vasquez","FN":"R."},{"id":"50088996","LN":"Zelazowski","FN":"P."},{"id":"47707078","LN":"Dávila","FN":"E. A."},{"id":"39511817","LN":"Andelman","FN":"S."},{"id":"123404991","LN":"Andrade","FN":"A."},{"id":"1702431","LN":"Chao","FN":"Kuo‐Jung"},{"id":"2128105","LN":"Erwin","FN":"T."},{"id":"4013614","LN":"Fiore","FN":"A. Di"},{"id":"2123233185","LN":"C.","FN":"Eurídice Honorio"},{"id":"15348225","LN":"Keeling","FN":"Helen C."},{"id":"117212348","LN":"Killeen","FN":"T."},{"id":"30190239","LN":"Laurance","FN":"W."},{"id":"2027397378","LN":"Cruz","FN":"A. P."},{"id":"1884526","LN":"Pitman","FN":"N."},{"id":"26881933","LN":"Vargas","FN":"P. N."},{"id":"1397511606","LN":"Ramírez-Angulo","FN":"H."},{"id":"4648289","LN":"Rudas","FN":"A."},{"id":"5824621","LN":"Salamão","FN":"Rafael"},{"id":"152465718","LN":"Silva","FN":"N."},{"id":"145727548","LN":"Terborgh","FN":"J."},{"id":"1397511554","LN":"Torres‐Lezama","FN":"A."}],"year":2009,"date":"2009-03-06","journal":"Science","volume":"323","firstPage":"1344","lastPage":"1347","references":["22dc4b06ab48b3500ef2b52008421ecc891fa544","47f89d260e57ec3435b21e5a49e69228fdb6d16f","a8d4e645455a0944323882ee1ad75899546bee35","37a09c5884e85fb6481e8bbd06724fa5ab293a39","1443619b40763a3630b80a811f2f68d39cdbdb07","4289108f3c3eea60c64b38d3ffaf3cf3ec5097a7","ad291bd5b21860267afd7c5a1fc6d44148de71cf","2eed542cfb60b30f4fe0dbfa54b573398ba6993e","987fc140593dfa3e3990b0702be40f706989eed4","706a40b0d9e7c046fa206124b78f25117f3e86af","1b42be4c685d3b79d4ccb661d218a6db6080959a","da3b009864e1f75e882f3713a50e0de7bd977aa9","1d8c6d421da1e01e9e3c0cade4904de9e4240452","a6dba705b97fa5345374bd275ca5b08498f174f1","f03b5849157d911054fd179761168a7a033add31","2f78828a333f2c2ba7f5c793ce26f380d5fc89fa","43d4c3329735dfca134f3b20bf31bc7939c3acc8","96a630a6cd9049bd66593c88b8ceb52675192ef7","6f7c1306ab69379df6df8214bf5d140af053df7e","db5c2c422cb1f5fc9ccdc4c01b79904149288f50","272505afe4f4cc01b636727abf7ea486d755824a","b44ea4c45d22dc28cf4c08571233c1d4a7cfbd82","373aabe83eab031c07ce72184e4db389e9027200","fedd542a6c24f5dc2fc3b5cf8391326a605ccf85","e0e5f217b9f766ffffa08c64362618c4ff266b06","d990d3b98a2e17a712cd7510e42bdc23f3d2f370","67e30fbaeb2d55402a922ca3c610f8896e8180bb","e6bd9186e04dd9428235a08a497417c4731b2735",null,"869f260dcd8668a59ed9f21c6dfb9cb9b8c738db","0edba31ec217a5dbab0efdcd5b5a381b9aeb88f1","17377fa1f57f01817679851cc8a1f613a00b3b99","bbd2a717137e2c8e76498e9f9cbada34dea27242","ad0f3e039b363d976d9da232689cc69f5bdbcd65","967b9906dc279d95e4ac4a7eca3eab43c9104a5c","399d7f806b3b2a0691ccf6e7ff411d0b781adb75",null,null],"referencesCount":38,"citationsCount":1632,"abstract":"Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.","tldr":"Records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia are used to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events that may accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances."},{"id":"d2d1c5b6db0a49162e26cbe3681aba5746dac515","numberInSourceReferences":4,"doi":"10.1038/NATURE10717","type":["Review","JournalArticle"],"title":"The Amazon basin in transition","authors":[{"id":"2250479270","LN":"Davidson","FN":"E."},{"id":"2237589296","LN":"Araújo","FN":"A."},{"id":"47390238","LN":"Artaxo","FN":"P."},{"id":"2242482519","LN":"Balch","FN":"Jennifer K."},{"id":"2246918764","LN":"Brown","FN":"I. 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The Amazon rainforest is among the Earth’s climate tipping elements. Under ongoing global warming, the frequency of severe droughts such as in 2005 and 2010 is projected to increase strongly, up to the point where these droughts may become the new climate normal in the second half of this century. Taking into account the adaptation of the forest to past environmental conditions, we find that nonlinear thresholds in the hydrological balance of the rainforest might be exceeded under drier future conditions, leading to self-amplified forest transitions. Thereby, we reveal that the lack of moisture recycling in some parts of the forest can be propagated downwind by the reduction of atmospheric moisture transport, resulting in approximately one-third of all tipping events."},{"id":"363d606574b38f8d77dac62d4c9f33101b414283","numberInSourceReferences":5,"doi":"10.1007/S43621-022-00105-7","type":null,"title":"Implications of Earth system tipping pathways for climate change mitigation investment","authors":[{"id":"14856063","LN":"Caldecott","FN":"J."}],"year":2022,"date":"2022-11-08","journal":"Discover 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Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take “b” into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points.\\n"}],"tabLabel":"Amazon deforestation","tabTitle":"Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s","bookmarkletURL":"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00857-9","API":"Semantic Scholar","allReferences":false,"allCitations":false,"timestamp":1717837822662,"localCitationNetworkVersion":1.24}]